PAC-10 TITLE: Marvelous GOM Match-up at Staples

PAC-10 TOURNAMENT TITLE.

Pretty Even Reg-Season:
1-1 Hm Tm Blowouts
Combined Score: 
Washington 169
California 160

(1) California vs (3) Washington

After racking up 63.63% Winners Second Half (& 7-1 all yr w/GOW|GOM), hitting so many favorites, we finally missed w/BOTH DAWGS last night. 

Must admit to underestimating Cal's Motivation & Washington's ability to overcome NCAA Tourney Pressure ('Win-or-NIT').  Lessons Learned

Of all the compelling g match-ups today, onc of the most mis-understood, poorly anaylised & CLEARLY ATS-Effected 1-on-1 duels today at Staples is PG.

On the Surface, we'd will continue to hear that CAL has the unquestioned & significant Match-up advantage at the POINT:

All-Everything, Bears 5-10 Sr PG J Randle one & only identified flaw in many situations this season has been SIZE ISSUES, thus vs UW's 5-8, diminutive I Thomas, Randle has a Rare, and welcomed reversal of this factor.

SR Offensive Machine JEROME RANDLE vs

Enigmatic SOPH ISSAAH THOMAS?

Of corse, Randle is sensational talent - and his PERFECT First Half Statline vs Ore is a prime example of what the guy provides for the PAC-10 Champ
Randle's Final PAC-10 Tourney Opening Half Act:
  FG: 8-8
  3's: 4-4
  FT: 2-2
  PF: 0
  PT: 22

YET - Deeper look, comparing these 2 players
Statistically produces stunning results:

Jerome Randle has the Edge in some expected areas:

Pts
RANDLE 19 PPG
THOMAS 17 PPG

Assists
RANDLE 4.5/Gm
THOMAS 2.9/Gm

eFG
RANDLE 56%
THOMAS 48.2%

TRUE Shooting Percentage
RANDLE 61.6%
THOMAS 53.8%

FT Percentage
RANDLE 93.3% (2nd in Nation)
THOMAS 73%

3-pt Percentage
RANDLE 41%
THOMAS 31.5%

Yet, Thomas has several SIGNIFICANT
Often unexpected Better Numbers
(Many obviously vital to UW Tm Effectiveness)

Pts/40 Min
RANDLE 21.7  
THOMAS 22.2

Rebounds
RANDLE 2.06/Gm
THOMAS 4.13/Gm (more than Double)
(Thomas 2.1 O-Reb/Gm; Randall 1.4)

Turnovers
RANDLE 114
THOMAS 73

FT Rate
RANDLE 31.3%
THOMAS 50.6%
(Getting into Lane, Drawing PF)

FT MADE
RANDLE 125
THOMAS 147

Asst/T-O Ratio, almost identical
RANDLE 1.3
THOMAS 1.27

So where the RUBBER Meets the Road,
Hard to say Thomas is better that Randall

YET some numbers crunched show
Thomas is awfully crucial to UW
And playing at high level he is
I Thomas is so big for Dawgs

'Ruland Index' (+/-) 
RANDLE +2.35
THOMAS +3.06

Thomas battling hand injury
disastrous Half-Doz first few gms of season
Puts Thomas' numbers in an even better light.
And gives UW GREAT Shot Today

Dawgs preeminent statistical numbers MUST be cross-examined w/Bears' Efficiency Numbers

CAL shooting 60% vs UCLA?
CAL's Last SIX GM:
WINS BY:
W-15
W-24
W-16
W-10
W-16
W-13

6-0 & 9-1 S-U & ATS

I STILL LIKE Wash stay close all the way, And WIN THIS GM

Lastly, even w/Cal pulling away from UCLA last night
Bears played just 7, & Bench not reiiable
Bears 4th PAC-10 in PF's (17.1/Gm)
But U-Dub is unprecedented in DRAWING FOULS
Wash #14 in D-1 (21.7/Gm) 

Wash repeated & supposed lg size disadvantages
Ought to be overcome by
Much greater UW Depth
And Key Defensive match-ups

Looking at these numbers shows
Cal doesn't have as many
Clear Experience & Size Edges as it may appear

LINE-UP:
UW Jr F (6-9 | 240) M Bryan-Amaning  
CAL Sr F (6-8 | 230) J Boykin

UW Sr F (6-6 | 215) Q Pondexter  
CAL So F (6-7 | 215) O Amoke

UW Jr F (6-6 | 180) J Holiday  
CAL Sr F (6-6 | 225) T Robertson

UW So G (5-8 | 185) I Thomas 
CAL Sr G (5-10 | 172) J Randle

UW Jr G (5-11 | 185) V Overton
CAL Sr G (6-5 | 215) P Christopher

Key Reserves:
CAL So G (6-3 | 185) J Gutierrez
UW Fr G (6-3 | 190) A Gaddy

CAL So G (6-4 | 185) DJ Seeley
UW So G (6-4 | 205) E Turner

CAL Sr G (6-3 | 185) N Knezevic
UW Fr F (6-7 | 255) T Breshers
 
Role Players (14% Tm Min or Lower)
CAL Fr 5-11 B Smith
UW So 6-8 D Gant
UW So 6-6 S Suggs

WASH DEF Pressure masked by their HIGH OCTANE Tempo
6 of 8 Gms, UW kept Opp low 40% FG or lower

Cal's tendency to have lapses appeared yesterday again
Falling behind 39-30, till going on 24-5 run to pull away.

Misc Last Thoughts:
Cal so good at getting to & Cashing at Line:
Cal Starters: 22-23 FT v UCLA

Wash got jitters out vs Ore St
DOMINATED Stanford entirely

Cal's HIGH RPI, Great Play
Six and 9 or 10 Spread Covers
COULD have made for a -6 Plus Bears' Line
So Linesmakers MUST feel they know something
GOTTA be CLEARLY seeking Bear Money!

Cal playing so Efficient keeps this at from
Being even BIGGER

G.O.M. | 3 UNIT
WASHINGTON +2 vs CALIFORNIA

1 UNIT | 4.5 PT TEASER
KANSAS STATE vs KANSAS | OVER 143
WASHINGTON vs CALIFORNIA | UNDER 156

LETS' GET IT!

 Great breakdown, Steve! On Washington with you at +2.5, didn't go this far in depth though.

Let's cash it!

Thanks, Sharp....

Few more FF's:

Warning on all taking OVER's here:

CAL IS 'High Octane' - sorta....

Bears' O-PPP is outrageous #4 in NCAA (1.2), supremely efficient...YET, their Avg Possessions (TEMPO) continues to DROP as thier FG, eFG, and O-PPP all go UP....CAL is all the way down to #102 in Pace, and Last 10 Gms they've played have seen Cal get more effective looks at hoop out of HALF CT sets, ect.  This REALLY plays into Dawgs Hand...I think.  UW Half-Ct Defense is the key to Dawgs success right now....UW O-Fg% is somewhat poor - as we've stated so many times, UW eFG is below 50% (bottom half of D-1)YET it doesn't seem to matter....as UW is avg 14 'EMPTY TRIPS' Defensively....#1 by FAR in D-1.

Till this week, UW was only tm in Conf that played faster than Cal ... AZ finished #2 PAC-10 Tempo (69.2 Poss/Gm).

Dawgs #1 PAC-10 Tempo (#9 NCAA, 74.3 Poss/Gm)

• FIRST gm Dawgs ran Bears out - 84-69 w/80 Poss in Seattle, in Cal's HIGHEST ttl by far in Conf
• SECOND GM was slower, yet at the start of Cal's current 9-1 Run, yet only 74 Poss

BOTH Tms oughta see benefit in a little more deiberate pace.

Oh, and LASTLY....Linaurdi pronouncing Washington IN now, even though he tabs Dawgs at #64 or 65, or one of 'LAST-4' IN leaves it very tenuous - and UW has played w/APPROPRIATE URGENCY so far in PAC-10 Tourney....w/UH stealing another bid should cancel out ANY sense of comfort UW had coming in. 

Here we go! 

Now that is a game write-up!

RJ_Bell

Now that is a game write-up!

Beavs write ups always are. I have to read them twice to soak up all the info, lol.  Chit, even when his play does'nt come through, you can't feel sour in the least. You know with all the %'s, an stats, an inside info, it was the right play.  This one is lookin good hf way through the 2nd, but anything can happen, hopefully I'll be back with one of these.....

Nice call on the Huskies, Steve.  Your writeups are always a work of art.  Get 'em again tomorrow.

 Didn't know Wash was so strong and long!

much appreciated.....

great call!! $$$$

Stevebeav

PAC-10 TOURNAMENT TITLE.

Pretty Even Reg-Season:
1-1 Hm Tm Blowouts
Combined Score: 
Washington 169
California 160

(1) California vs (3) Washington

After racking up 63.63% Winners Second Half (& 7-1 all yr w/GOW|GOM), hitting so many favorites, we finally missed w/BOTH DAWGS last night. 

Must admit to underestimating Cal's Motivation & Washington's ability to overcome NCAA Tourney Pressure ('Win-or-NIT').  Lessons Learned

Of all the compelling g match-ups today, onc of the most mis-understood, poorly anaylised & CLEARLY ATS-Effected 1-on-1 duels today at Staples is PG.

On the Surface, we'd will continue to hear that CAL has the unquestioned & significant Match-up advantage at the POINT:

All-Everything, Bears 5-10 Sr PG J Randle one & only identified flaw in many situations this season has been SIZE ISSUES, thus vs UW's 5-8, diminutive I Thomas, Randle has a Rare, and welcomed reversal of this factor.

SR Offensive Machine JEROME RANDLE vs

Enigmatic SOPH ISSAAH THOMAS?

Of corse, Randle is sensational talent - and his PERFECT First Half Statline vs Ore is a prime example of what the guy provides for the PAC-10 Champ
Randle's Final PAC-10 Tourney Opening Half Act:
  FG: 8-8
  3's: 4-4
  FT: 2-2
  PF: 0
  PT: 22

YET - Deeper look, comparing these 2 players
Statistically produces stunning results:

Jerome Randle has the Edge in some expected areas:

Pts
RANDLE 19 PPG
THOMAS 17 PPG

Assists
RANDLE 4.5/Gm
THOMAS 2.9/Gm

eFG
RANDLE 56%
THOMAS 48.2%

TRUE Shooting Percentage
RANDLE 61.6%
THOMAS 53.8%

FT Percentage
RANDLE 93.3% (2nd in Nation)
THOMAS 73%

3-pt Percentage
RANDLE 41%
THOMAS 31.5%

Yet, Thomas has several SIGNIFICANT
Often unexpected Better Numbers
(Many obviously vital to UW Tm Effectiveness)

Pts/40 Min
RANDLE 21.7  
THOMAS 22.2

Rebounds
RANDLE 2.06/Gm
THOMAS 4.13/Gm (more than Double)
(Thomas 2.1 O-Reb/Gm; Randall 1.4)

Turnovers
RANDLE 114
THOMAS 73

FT Rate
RANDLE 31.3%
THOMAS 50.6%
(Getting into Lane, Drawing PF)

FT MADE
RANDLE 125
THOMAS 147

Asst/T-O Ratio, almost identical
RANDLE 1.3
THOMAS 1.27

So where the RUBBER Meets the Road,
Hard to say Thomas is better that Randall

YET some numbers crunched show
Thomas is awfully crucial to UW
And playing at high level he is
I Thomas is so big for Dawgs

'Ruland Index' (+/-) 
RANDLE +2.35
THOMAS +3.06

Thomas battling hand injury
disastrous Half-Doz first few gms of season
Puts Thomas' numbers in an even better light.
And gives UW GREAT Shot Today

Dawgs preeminent statistical numbers MUST be cross-examined w/Bears' Efficiency Numbers

CAL shooting 60% vs UCLA?
CAL's Last SIX GM:
WINS BY:
W-15
W-24
W-16
W-10
W-16
W-13

6-0 & 9-1 S-U & ATS

I STILL LIKE Wash stay close all the way, And WIN THIS GM

Lastly, even w/Cal pulling away from UCLA last night
Bears played just 7, & Bench not reiiable
Bears 4th PAC-10 in PF's (17.1/Gm)
But U-Dub is unprecedented in DRAWING FOULS
Wash #14 in D-1 (21.7/Gm) 

Wash repeated & supposed lg size disadvantages
Ought to be overcome by
Much greater UW Depth
And Key Defensive match-ups

Looking at these numbers shows
Cal doesn't have as many
Clear Experience & Size Edges as it may appear

LINE-UP:
UW Jr F (6-9 | 240) M Bryan-Amaning  
CAL Sr F (6-8 | 230) J Boykin

UW Sr F (6-6 | 215) Q Pondexter  
CAL So F (6-7 | 215) O Amoke

UW Jr F (6-6 | 180) J Holiday  
CAL Sr F (6-6 | 225) T Robertson

UW So G (5-8 | 185) I Thomas 
CAL Sr G (5-10 | 172) J Randle

UW Jr G (5-11 | 185) V Overton
CAL Sr G (6-5 | 215) P Christopher

Key Reserves:
CAL So G (6-3 | 185) J Gutierrez
UW Fr G (6-3 | 190) A Gaddy

CAL So G (6-4 | 185) DJ Seeley
UW So G (6-4 | 205) E Turner

CAL Sr G (6-3 | 185) N Knezevic
UW Fr F (6-7 | 255) T Breshers
 
Role Players (14% Tm Min or Lower)
CAL Fr 5-11 B Smith
UW So 6-8 D Gant
UW So 6-6 S Suggs

WASH DEF Pressure masked by their HIGH OCTANE Tempo
6 of 8 Gms, UW kept Opp low 40% FG or lower

Cal's tendency to have lapses appeared yesterday again
Falling behind 39-30, till going on 24-5 run to pull away.

Misc Last Thoughts:
Cal so good at getting to & Cashing at Line:
Cal Starters: 22-23 FT v UCLA

Wash got jitters out vs Ore St
DOMINATED Stanford entirely

Cal's HIGH RPI, Great Play
Six and 9 or 10 Spread Covers
COULD have made for a -6 Plus Bears' Line
So Linesmakers MUST feel they know something
GOTTA be CLEARLY seeking Bear Money!

Cal playing so Efficient keeps this at from
Being even BIGGER

G.O.M. | 3 UNIT
WASHINGTON +2 vs CALIFORNIA

1 UNIT | 4.5 PT TEASER
KANSAS STATE vs KANSAS | OVER 143
WASHINGTON vs CALIFORNIA | UNDER 156

LETS' GET IT!

GREAT CALL Steve & another great Pac-10 season for you buddy.