Yesterday's Plays
Swept the card yesterday, going 2-0. NC State with an outright winner over Clemson as a 7.5 point underdog, the Wolfpack is playing really well right now. And the nightcap made me nervous, as Oregon State blew a double-digit lead, but ended up covering the number by 2 points. That sweep makes it 5 in a row, and 7 out of 8. I'm ready for today's action, with 2 games today.
Today's Plays
1* Play on New Mexico(-2.5)
The Lobos take on San Diego State in the semifinals of the Mountain West Conference tournament. New Mexico is 29-3, they finished at 14-2 in the MWC. The Aztecs come in at 23-8, finishing at 11-5 in the conference. These teams split the season series, each winning at home. The Aztecs won by 10 at home, while New Mexico needed overtime at home to pull out a 2 point victory.
Both teams played yesterday in the quarterfinals of this tournament. New Mexico got by Air Force, and San Diego State needed everything they had to squeak out a 1 point win over Colorado State. I feel that the Aztecs win really took a lot more out of them than the Lobos win. This could give the Lobos a distinct advantage as this game gets late. In these teams last matchup, the Aztecs pushed the game to overtime behind 12 three pointers made. This is an Aztecs team which makes 5 threes on average, as they shoot just 31% behind the line. I don't believe we see a duplicate of that shooting effort here tonight. Another big flaw of the Aztecs is their FT percentage. They shoot just 60.5% from the line, and this could be the difference in a tight game.
New Mexico has historically been a team who plays much better at home than on the road. But this year, they have played well anywhere they've played. This team is 12-2 outside of The Pit, and they have won their last 15 games in a row. The Lobos are 5-2-1 ATS when listed as a favorite of 3 points or less or as an underdog. So, they have done well when put up against top competition. This San Diego State team is sqaurely on the bubble, and I believe you are paying a premium to back them here tonight. The Aztecs have a lot of pressure on them to win this game, and I don't trust them hitting shots with so much pressure on them. New Mexico knows they are in the NCAA tournament, but will really want this one, to advance to the final. With such a small number to lay, I have to go with New Mexico to get the victory, advance to the final, and cover this small number. The Lobos win by 7-9 points here.
1* Play on North Carolina State(+6)
The Wolfpack enter the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament with a record of 18-14, 5-11 in the ACC. Their opponents from Florida State, are 22-8, and they went 10-7 in the conference. These teams did meet earlier this year on January 12th. NC State pulled off an 88-81 upset as an 11 point road underdog.
Writeups on both these games will be completed later this afternoon. I'm locking these games in now, but both are 9pm Eastern starts, so plenty on time to get on board.
Good luck with all your plays today. Hit me up with any thoughts on today's games. And as always, thank you for reading.
Your boy,
The Brick
DanBebe.com - Home of All Things BebeLISTEN: "Today in Sports Betting" Podcast (Updated Daily)Read Up - Dan Bebe's Blog Archives Final Season Records (Weighted to 2-Units per Play)2008-09 NBA Record: 49-35-3 (+10.50, Avg Bet Size = 1.00; Wtd Total = +21.00)2009 MLB Record: 161-143-4 (+6.54, Avg Bet Size = 1.01; Wtd Total = +12.95)2009-10 NFL Record: 19-12-1 (+6.90, Avg Bet Size = 0.97; Wtd Total = +14.23)2009-10 NBA Record: 174-148-6 (+12.84, Avg Bet Size = 1.09; Wtd Total = +23.56)2010 MLB Record: 132-143 (-18.71, Avg Bet Size = 1.34; Wtd Total = -27.93)2010 CFB Record: 27-21-3 (+12.25, Avg Bet Size = 1.39; Wtd Total = +17.66)2010 NFL Reg. Season: 33-36-1 (+1.70, Avg Bet Size = 1.32; Wtd Total = +2.24) 1st Place in 2009 Pregame Fantasy Football League3rd Place in 2010 Pregame Fantasy Baseball League
I just wanted say, THANK YOU, again, for the amazing work you provide. Nice 2-0 last night, and you will get another 2-0 today. BOL my friend.
keep towing the line. Thx for the winner w/ NC state yesterday !! Will await your write-up on these two...........
you the man bro. Love your work, and i make sure to read it every single day.
Let's get you on the damn TiSB podcast already!
I am my own source. It's not a run when you do it over and over again with consistency and a mentality that you've done it before.
Writeups are complete, even after some technical difficulties here. Best of luck to everyone tonight!
Everyone, thanks for the continued support, it is greatly appreciated.
Mike, don't you know someone who can pull some strings over there on the podcast. I'd love to get on there.
Sound reasong as always brick, will follow on both. NC state still gettin no love on the chalk? Reminds of that character, uh, what was his name..............oh yeah, Jimmy Valvano.
In regards to the New Mexico's (state & straight), gosh I've been hearing alot about these two lately. Been having Hopi & Zuni dreams of my animal archatype lately. Think even Dickey V is wearing a collegiate pair of boxers. Have to wonder if the engine is starting to overheat as the book is starting to red line these games. However, your insight is more than telling, and knowledge is second to none.......gl, hope you sweep & will listen to your podcast to have a voice to go w/ the linguistic dissertations.