Allright Fellas...I wasn't able to get any "Late Steam" Confirmed for the 12pm-1pm est Match-Ups in CBB...But I did have a PERSONAL PLAY that I decided to Pass along for FREE here in the Forums, on Twitter, and Added it to the ALL-DAY PASS as a Bonus for anyone who Purchased Early...Let's get to that 2*, and move on the rest of the day because I see some really strong positions ahead...Best of Luck, VR
FREE CBB 2* BONUS (12pm est) PERSONAL PLAY :
1.) DUKE -17....(2*)
Bottom Line...I made my True Line on this Match-Up -21...But it looks like with so many Dogs barking, the oddsmakers felt the betting public would be more prone to grab the points today, like they do every year after seeing the Dogs cash early...VR
FREE NEWSLETTER PREVIEW for FRIDAY :
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for FRIDAY MARCH 12th, 2010
SPORTS BETTING : “CHANGING GEARS…WHEN IS IT SAFE TO DO ??”
Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…We cashed another TRUE STEAM “Morning Move” on Thursday…And are now on a “20-8” TRUE STEAM RUN…And since Football Season, which is when I began passing these positions along…we are “62-28” (69% ATS) on “90 BETS”…
More importantly, we turned in another Winning Day Overall…And we have WON EVERY DAY THIS WEEK so far…Now don’t get me wrong, so far it’s been a true grind to win a little over 15 Units in Conference Tournaments…But that’s the way we’ve always approached them…It’s how I watched the Betting Syndicates that I “ran” for win year after year…So I saw no problem implementing those same strategies and systems when I went off on my own…And as you can see, it was a good choice because the results since coming to Pregame during these Tourneys…speak for themselves…
Now the reason I bring this up is not to congratulate myself…Instead, it’s to try and explain that there are different parts during these type of stretches (Playoffs, Tournaments, ect)…And to maximize profits, you have to approach each very differently…
What I mean is that early on, although the lines are soft…the amount of recreational bettors money that hit’s the windows gets greater as the tournaments or playoffs progress…That’s how it’s always been and that’s how it will stay…And as the volume increases, so does the weight that the odds makers need to put on “public perception”…And as I’ve mentioned in dozens of Newsletters already…the more they add “public perception” to the equation…the softer the lines will be for pros…
And the books don’t mind because that simply produces balanced money on marquee match-ups…And when the volume is high, that’s exactly what they are hoping to attract…
While moving “steam” all those years, I noticed that early on in the Tournaments of Playoffs…the betting volume from the Outfits I worked for was the heaviest…And rather than try to isolate the positions that offered the greatest edge…they simply fired away at all the positions that offered any edge at all…So that when the dust settled, they would always end up grinding out a profit…
Then as the Tournaments moved to the later stages…they would decrease volume, and increase their positions…Which makes perfect sense because they know that their edge is much greater, so rather than spread their money out…they instead would isolate those positions that offered the biggest edge…and UNLOAD on them…And once again, when all the dust settled…somehow or other, we always would end up with the books money…
This brings me to today’s topic…”When if ever, is it safe to change gears”…
CONTINUED...JOIN "MORNING MOVES" for ONLY $1.00 for ENTIRE 1st WEEK !!
DanBebe.com - Home of All Things BebeLISTEN: "Today in Sports Betting" Podcast (Updated Daily)Read Up - Dan Bebe's Blog Archives Final Season Records (Weighted to 2-Units per Play)2008-09 NBA Record: 49-35-3 (+10.50, Avg Bet Size = 1.00; Wtd Total = +21.00)2009 MLB Record: 161-143-4 (+6.54, Avg Bet Size = 1.01; Wtd Total = +12.95)2009-10 NFL Record: 19-12-1 (+6.90, Avg Bet Size = 0.97; Wtd Total = +14.23)2009-10 NBA Record: 174-148-6 (+12.84, Avg Bet Size = 1.09; Wtd Total = +23.56)2010 MLB Record: 132-143 (-18.71, Avg Bet Size = 1.34; Wtd Total = -27.93)2010 CFB Record: 27-21-3 (+12.25, Avg Bet Size = 1.39; Wtd Total = +17.66)2010 NFL Reg. Season: 33-36-1 (+1.70, Avg Bet Size = 1.32; Wtd Total = +2.24) 1st Place in 2009 Pregame Fantasy Football League3rd Place in 2010 Pregame Fantasy Baseball League
Man, VR, I just want say how much I enjoy reading your stuff, I give YOU, Bebe, Hook, Spartan, Tony George, Sac Lawson and GoodFella, oh, and Gregg, for what I have learned from ya'll. I'm sure I'm leaving other pros out, but you guys deserve so much credit. I thank you for what you and the other pros offer. BOL today buddy!
Thanks Fellas...it really has been a Grind and truth is...we did most of the Tournament Damage early in the Week...So we should do some more Late in the Week...That's usually how it goes, and as today's Newsletter explained...we use that middle part to fire as many plays that we can find Value on...and expect to see a Profit when the dust settles...
Now, we'll tighten up a bit...Not meaning less plays because there are so many games, which means we will have more bets than most...But with that said, the parameters are stricter and we aim for more Value...And feel more confident increasing our position...
There is just so much that I like today..it's going to be tough to do...But I know that historically, that's the way to extract the most profit so I won't change the system...
And we'll definitely look to take advantage of the NBA as well...Because with so many games on tap...there are plenty of line-errors to exploit...
Time to get some more work done...I wish I could hang out in the forums all day because it looks like everyone's having as much fun as I am...Best of Luck, VR
Cowboy...Thank You brother, I really do appreciate that and if there is anything that you would like to see covered in the future...just ask and I'll toss them on the list of topic ideas...
Truth is, there is just so many years of different experiences that I want to share with you guys...So I try to choose the things that back in the day, I would have wanted..and eventually did...ask many of the Wiseguys that I worked with...
And this Newsletter allows me to really share all of that with you guys...And we made sure to make it so affordable, that anyone interested can join us...Without it costing more than their daily newspaper...Which I can promise you won't provide that type of information or results...
I just wish that I could start the day off Winning...
Because it looks like Duke just isn't going to get there for us...And I have to stay away from those early favs because they've cost me the last 2 days...
Fortunately, we have so much ahead that we will be betting on...Plus TWO 3* BOMBS...so when all the dust settles tonight, I like our chances of being on top and heading into the weekend off 5 straight winning days...
Best of Luck and Thanks again...Just wanted to stop in before I get so busy that it will be impossible...Because for the next 6-7 hrs...I will be working on putting together some winners for us...VR