WAC tournament (Utah St/NMSU in the finals)

The WAC tourney starts Thursday.  There are a few games on ESPN, ESPNU, etc.

I will be betting 1 unit per game on these:

Utah St -11.5

Fresno St +4

Nevada -8 1/2

Full disclosure:  Changed lines to show the lines I received after posting.  I have been betting the games after I post to be transparent and allow those who want to follow to obtain similar lines.

I don't normally weigh in on Pregame, but as someone who follows San Jose State I must say that I can't figure out why NMSU is only laying four here.

SJSU has not won a conference game away from the Event Center all year.  This game will of course be at a neutral site in Reno, but it's amazing the difference in the Spartans quality of play when they leave San Jose.  The Spartans run a lot of three-guard sets and that worked pretty well for them early on.  But the WAC adjusted to the Spartans and they have not been able to respond.  After a successful homestand in January, SJSU went on the road and was exposed by Utah State and Louisiana Tech.  Since then, they've only managed to beat an inferior team from the Big Sky conference and a Fresno State team that quit on its coach.  Their defense is atrocious, as proven by their defensive field goal percentage of .471 on the season  YIKES!  Also, of less importance, SJSU has a history of being terrible in the WAC tournament.  They've only won two WAC tournament games since joining the conference in '97.

 Now, one thing to keep in mind is that SJSU can shoot the three (better than 40%).  And they have Adrian Oliver who is first-team all WAC and the best talent the program has had in more than a decade. There's also some talk that coach Nessman needs to win at least one WAC tourney game to return next year, so his players might rally for him.  But having said that, it's hard to imagine SJSU beating New Mexico State.

 It's also worth keeping an eye on the total here.  I would guess it comes in around the high 150s.  If that's the case, then the over could also be a great play.  In both of their head-to-head games the total topped 175.

 BOL everyone!

 Thank you for the input, Ashling.  I agree 100% with your assessment of SJSU.  I did back SJSU in a few of their games once they were successful with the 3 guard set but they have such a glaring hole in the post.  I do like Oakes as a player but against taller teams such as Boise St and New Mexico St, they are vulnerable on the boards.  

Yet another issue for SJSU.  Troy Gillenwater wasn't available for the January game that the Spartans won in San Jose vs NMSU.  Now he's back.  Match-up problem for the Spartans.

Buddy I will be watching this thread for your stronger leans,,,you know your shit in the WAC! 

General WAC comments:

Boise St:  Really like this team.  Lot of unheralded guys who hustle.  They played Utah St tough in Boise.  If Boise St was playing any other team, this play would already have been confirmed.

Fresno St/La Tech:  Books really nailed this line.  Fresno does matchup well with La Tech with both teams being athletic in the perimeter and post.  One important thing to note was Gibson, La Tech's best player, did not play in their last meeting.  Lets see what the early bettors do tomorrow evening.

Idaho/Nevada:  Nevada's role players are really starting to play good basketball.  That is a bad sign for other WAC squads.  They are my early favorite to win the WAC tourney in an upset and take an at-large bid from another bubble team (Utah St appears to be in the NCAA tourney)

 Plays going to be posted in the morning.  Going to wait  for a better number on the early matchup.

 Rolling with NMSU myself buddy!  Have a profitable day in the WAC!

I will be betting 1 unit per game on these:

Utah St -11

Fresno St +5

Nevada -8 1/2

With every man, woman and child on NMSU,  We will wait on that game.

best of luck, D - going tail ya' on Fresno and add to my early picks, liking nevada as well.