I’m a great believer in the norm as far as analyzing games is concerned. What that means is that I like to find spots where a team is off a game where something was dramatically different from what can generally be expected. Thus, the search is for progressions or regressions to the norm. Like anything in the world of handicapping, it’s not an absolute and is just one variable that needs to be measured when breaking down a game. But it’s not a bad way to get started.
Here’s an example of what I mean. Montana State is a pretty mediocre college basketball team. They’re currently rated #318 out of 351 D1 college squads on the Pomeroy rankings. But the Big Sky Bobcats had themselves a great time last Friday night as they entertained UT-Arlington. Montana State came into the game 0-4 and was off that humiliating 86-28 loss at the hands of powerful Kentucky.
While losing to Kentucky is obviously not a disgrace, getting embarrassed by an absurd score certainly was. The Bobcats came out on fire in what was their first home game and by the time it was all over Montana State had romped to the tune of 104-81. Along the way, the Bobcats were a spectacular 18/26 on three point field goals. That’s an amazing percentage for any team, but even moreso for a team that in its prior four games had gone just 25/81 from long range.
The bounce effect thus came into play for the next Montana State game, which was Sunday’s matchup with North Dakota State. Sure enough, the Bobcats regressed to their norm and then some. The three-point well dried up as they nailed just 7/23, and they flattened out in other aspects of the game as well. North Dakota State ended up coasting to a lopsided 72-51 win as small chalk.
One of the worst mistakes any bettor can make, and far too many do, is remembering only the last thing they saw with a team. But I’m definitely an advocate of peering through each box score to isolate statistical blips such as the one described here. The regression or progression to the norm works more often than not. In other words, don’t just look at final scores. Check out those boxes to see how the score came about and see if there’s some info you can garner that gets you a great chance for a winner the next time out.
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