8 Kentucky Wildcats -2.5 vs. 7 Connecticut Huskies O/U 135 points
What a game we have here tonight when the Kentucky Wildcats take on the UConn Huskies. Literally zero people in the world expected this match up, and if you say you did, you’re lying. This will be the first time in the last 25 years that the National Champion isn’t a 4 seed or better. The way I am looking at this game tonight is pretty simple, the team with the more talented players will win. I look at UConn and see a bunch of nice players and a great head coach in Kevin Ollie. They are a resilient program with tremendous leadership with their senior guard Shabazz Napier. This UConn team impresses me so much in that just last year they were suspended from post season play for a year because of NCAA violations made by Jim Calhoun and his previous UConn teams. The kids could have took this as a negative and jumped ship and transfered to another school. Instead they did not let this 1 year ban break them as a team, they all stayed that year and have stuck together through the ups and downs of this year all the way to the national title game. They are truly an impressive squad and they have been a joy to watch this tournament. On the other side of the court tonight I look at this Kentucky team and am surprised every time I watch them play. These young freshmen are getting better each game right before our very eyes. Their roster is littered with NBA type talent and I expect this talent to shine bright tonight on the biggest stage. I don’t buy into the whole UConn is experienced and Kentucky is not thing that is going around. Yes, the Huskies are experienced, but so is Kentucky. These players may be freshmen but they have gained valuable late game experience throughout this entire tournament, have been tested by the top teams in the nation, and have trailed by double digits in a few games and have trailed most games at half time. After all this they still went on to win each game they played in impressive fashion, by not making mistakes and not turning the ball over, and by letting their talent ooze out by hitting big time shots. I expect UConn’s pressure defense by Napier and Boatright to harrass the Harrison twins all night long and I believe UConn has the edge in the back court tonight, but not by a lot. The Harrison twins, along with James Young are extremely talented and will be able to handle this pressure for the most part, and will be able to use their size advantage and score on UConn’s guards in the paint and by shooting jumpers over them. Once Kentucky gets it across half court, they should take it to the rack every damn play. Kentucky should drive to the rack every posession and just get shots up on the rim and let their rebounding lead the way. This, my friends, will be the deciding factor tonight, Rebounding. Kentucky is the #1 offensive rebounding team in the nation and UConn in contrast is the 247th defensive rebounding team in the nation. This is a huge mismatch in Kentucky’s favor and one I fully expect them to exploit the entire game. Kentucky will use their size, stength and athleticism to wear down these Huskies tonight. I expect alot of defensive possessions for UConn where they D up Kentucky for the whole shot clock and force a bad shot but give up the offensive board and have to D up for another possession and I see Kentucky getting alot of second chance buckets. This factor is one I can not overlook and one that will be the reason why Kentucky is the team cutting down the nets at the end of the night. UConn has had one hell of a run and if they win tonight I won’t be too surprised because they always seem to find a way to win in this tournament when the odds are stacked against them. I think UConn is the square side tonight and Vegas wants you to take them with the attractive 2.5 points because Vegas knows how close all these games have been in the tournament, so the thinking is if you take the dog with points, you will be a winner. It is never that easy. Kentucky is the more talented team, has the more talented players, has the size advantage at every position, has a major rebounding edge, and has the better coach (even though I think the world of Kevin Ollie, he’s legit). I expect a very entertaining game with the young freshmen of Kentucky making enough plays late in the second half to pull away for the victory, giving Coach Cal his second National Title in three years.
Kentucky 77 UConn 73
TMant’s Personal Play: I am personally playing Kentucky on the Moneyline (-150) in this game tonight. I am risking 3 units to win 2 units. I do think Kentucky covers the 2.5 points but I’d rather risk a little extra on the vig to not have to deal with the spread (worked out well for us last game). Best of luck to everyone tonight and lets have this tourney end the right way, with some Madness!