Jeff Scott has recommended that I begin making my own plays based on recent success in his threads. Expect a play from me 2-3 times per week at most as I only bet on CBB when I feel like I have a very strong angle on a game. I primarily play totals, but today I am looking at an ATS pick. HERE WE GO:
SIENA -1 over St. Peter's
Being from the northeast I know the MAAC very well, and I truly believe Siena should be favored by at least 3.5 points today. They hold a huge advantage in both assists and rebounds per game. In the first meeting, Siena won by 17 points as a 4.5 point home favorite. Siena had 14 assists to St Peter's 5 assists. Siena had 48 rebounds to St. Peter's 29 rebounds. We must also acknowledge that Siena won by 17 points despite shooting only 3-16 from 3 point range. This young Siena team has been getting better all year behind the leadership of impassioned first year coach Jimmy Patsos, and they have been a very predictable team as they beat the inferior opponents but lose to superior opponents. This St. Peter's team is as inferior as it gets. They are a cellar dweller in the MAAC, and their last five games (0-5) have been an accurate display of how truly awful they are. Over that span, St. Peter's has averaged 55 ppg, allowed 68 ppg, and have a -7.2 rebounds per game margin. They have been getting flat-out smoked lately, and I don't see them turning things around tonight. Siena is not a great road team, but like I said, they take care of business when they are supposed to. On the road against the other two cellar dwellers in the MAAC, Siena won at Niagara by 13, and they won at Fairfield by 8. I'm seeing a similar result tonight. Look for a game played in the 60s but with Siena winning by 5-9 points. For those who aren't familiar with the MAAC, most teams play in the equivalent of a large high school gym, and thus there is not a significant home court advantage like the bigger conferences. St. Peter's is just 7-19 ATS in it's last 26 home games, and I feel another loss coming tonight in what Vegas views as a toss-up game. BOL to all that follow.