Just not a great night last night as I lost my 4 and 5 unit plays. Overall I went 6-4, but just 3-4 in my top plays. Well back to the grind today.
5 UNIT PLAY
Boston U/ Hartford Over 120.5: I wanted to get this one out early as i expect line movement. Gonna go off the grid a bit here, but I see these teams hitting at least 125. Boston U comes in as not a great offensive team as they average just v64.4 ppg overall and 63.8 ppg on the road, but they have averaged 66.5 ppg in their last 8 games overall and 69.5 ppg in their last 4 on the road, so this team is more than capable of hitting the mid to upper 60's in this one. Making it easier for them to reach those marks is the fact that Hartford has allowed 67.5 ppg overall, 65.4 ppg at home and in the two meetings this year the Terriers scored 65 and 64 points. Offensively Hartford is not good, but they have hovered around the 60 point mark all season as they have averaged 59.6 ppg overall and 60.6 ppg at home and they will be facing a Boston U team that has struggled some with defense out on the road as they have allowed 65.6 ppg when playing away from home. This will not be a fast paced game by any stretch, but I clearly expect the Terriers to hit at least 65 points, while Hartford should be good for something in the high 50. 125+ here.
4 UNIT PLAYS
San Jose/ Idaho Over 134.5: Another night time total's play that I like and I will get it out now as I do expect line movement. Let's first start out with the fact that the OU is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings between these teams, with each and every one of those games hitting at least 136, while each of the last 6 have hit at least 140 points. Idaho comes in averaging just 68.2 ppg overall and 66.8 ppg in conference play, but they have also averaged 69 ppg in their last 7 overall and 70 ppg on the road this year. This team should clearly hit over 70 points here as they will be taking on a Spartans team that has allowed 77.4 ppg in league play and 73.6 ppg in their last 5 overall. San Jose has allowed just 68.3 ppg at home, but 70.2 ppg (Regulation) in their WAC home games. San Jose is average on offense as they have put up 66.8 ppg in conference play and 67.6 ppg at home this year and I do believe they can hit at least 67 in this game vs an Idaho team that has allowed 68.9 ppg on the road and 67.8 ppg in WAC play. As you can see their is more than enough offense and just little enough defense for this game to hit at 135 points. San Jose's WAC games have averaged 144.2 ppg, while Idaho's have averaged 134.6 ppg. I expect this one to fall in the middle of those numbers. KEY TRENDS--- SAN JOSE ST is 14-2 OVER versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 2 seasons, while IDAHO is 14-4 OVER off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog since 1997.
Western Kentucky -2 over Florida International: (Added) Neither team had a great year, as both teams are well below .500 for the year, but WKU had a better showing in the conference this year and they really played much better down the stretch. In their last 10 games, the Hilltoppers went 6-4 SU and 8-2 ATS. During that stretch they Pulled outright upsets of MTSU and FAU at home, plus FIU on the road. WKU also lost by just 8 at MTSU (13.5 Dogs) and they lost by just 1 at FAU as 11 points dogs. So this team has been right there down the stretch. On the other side we have a FIU squad that comes in having gone just 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, but in their last 6 games they have gone just 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS. Defense should be key in this one as FIU comes in really struggling at that end of the floor as they have allowed a whopping 76.2 ppg in their last 5 games and that should really fuel a WKU team that has averaged 76 ppg in their last 2 games and 70.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Defensively for WKU they have played better of late as they have allowed just 66.5 ppg in their last 5 games and 65.8 ppg in their last 10 games. Not great numbers, but much better than the way FIU had been playing and tghey should be able to shut down a Golden Panther squad that has averaged 63.1 ppg and just 64.1 ppg when playing away from home. Neither team will make the NCAA Tourney this year, unless they win their conference tournament, but WKU has been playing much better down the stretch and they should be able to win rather easily in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Pittsburgh/ Connecticut Over 131: The Huskies have started to turn the corner offensively as they come in averaging 71.2 ppg in their last 5 games, while at home on the year they have put up 72.3 ppg. Offense has been good for this team of late, but the defense has not, as they come in allowing 73 ppg in their last 7 games. Pitt is back to struggling on offense as they have averaged just 60.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but this is still a team that is healthy and has plenty of scorers on it's team, plus they would also like to run and UConn should oblige in that respect. Defensively Pitt has not been as strong as in years past as they have allowed 66.2 ppg over, which is their highest points allowed mark in a long time. They have also allowed 66.2 ppg on the road and 65.4 ppg in their last 10 games overall. This is a huge game for both squads and I really don't see them holding anything back in this one. I look for both teams to push the ball and both teams to hit at least 65 in this one.
KANSAS STATE -11 over Oklahoma State: KSU has struggled at home in the Big 12, but this is just too big a game for them to come out flat here. Despite their recent struggles at home the Wildcats are still 10-4 on their home floor and have outscored their opponents by 11 ppg. OSU comes in just 2-8 in their true road games this year and have been outscored by 10.9 ppg in those games, while they have been outscored by 17.1 ppg in their 7 Big 12 road losses. Defense has really been a problem for the Cowboys on the road this year as they have allowed 75.1 ppg in those games and that's not good as they will be facing a Cats team that has averaged 71.6 ppg at home on the year. OSU has averaged 67 ppg in their last 5 overall, but they still have averaged just 64.2 ppg on the road this year and putting up more than that will be difficult as the Cats have allowed just 60.6 ppg on 37.8% shooting at home this year. KSU needs this game much more and behind another solid defensive effort they should get it with ease.
Iona/ Marist Over 152.5: These teams played 2 games this year and 157 points and 176 points were scored in the 2 games. Marist has played some lower scoring games of late, but this is still a team that will get out and run with you as evidenced by the first two meetings. Marist may not score a ton, but they did put up 89 on Niagara two games ago and they scored 74 and 76 points in the first two meetings. Iona loves the uptempo game and they come in averaging 83.4 ppg overall and 92 ppg in their last 5 games. Now because of their pace they have allowed 72.5 ppg overall and 75.2 ppg in their last 5. Those last 5 for Iona have averaged 167.2 ppg and I really do look for them to push the tempo here as they have had some rest, while Marist played yesterday. Marist did allow just 62.7 ppg in their last 5 games, but away from home this year they have allowed 78.2 ppg and no matter what their seasonal averages are their just hasn't been too many teams that have been able to stop Iona. I clearly expect at least the high 150's in this one.
George Mason/ Georgia State Over 130: (Added) The last 11 in this series has all gone Under the total, but I say that ends tonight. Both of these teams come in playing some very good basketball at the offensive end of the floor of late as the Patriots have averaged 74.2 ppg on 50.7 % shooting in their last 5 games, while Georgia State has put up 71.6 ppg on 57.6% shooting in their last 5 games. Defensively George Mason has not been that good as they have allowed 68.7 ppg when playing away from home and 75.2 ppg in their last 5 games overall. Georgia State has played very good defensively this year as they allowed 59.2 ppg overall and 62 ppg in their last 5 games, but they should have a problem keeping George Mason down in this one. Both teams have more than enough offense to hit at least 65 each in this one. I will call for a game in the high 130's here.
Georgia Southern -1 over Elon: (Added) A good case of two teams headed in the wrong direction, as Elon has won just 1 of their last 7 games, while Georgia Southern has won 7 of their last 9 games. A big edge at the defensive end goes to the Eagles in this one as they have allowed just 62.3 ppg (regulation) in their last 7 games, while Elon has allowed 74.3 ppg in their last 6 games. GSU did have a couple of games where they have struggled offensively of late, but they have still hit the 69+ point mark (reg) in 3 of their last 5a games, and they really should have no problems scoring vs Elon tonight. Elon has been scoring a bit more of late as they have averaged 68.3 ppg in their last 4 games, but one of those games was in OT and they scored 93 vs a bad NC Greensboro defensive team, while they were held to 59 and 46 points in their other two games and I feel that GSU plays good enough defense to hold them down in this one. GSU has gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games, while Elon is just 3-7 ATS over the same stretch. I've done well with GSU of late and I will ride them here as well.
Gonzaga -2.5 over BYU: (Added) Google News Play. To me the Zags are still the best team in the WCC and theyb are getting hot at the right time as they have won 7 of their last 8 games, with 7 of the wins coming by DD, including an 11 point win over BYU. in the last meeting between these teams BYU managed to hit just 30.8 percent of their field goal attempts, but BYU returned to its productive offensive in its bout with San Diego on Friday as it drained 54.7 percent of its total shots. The Bulldogs will also benefit from their double-bye, as BYU's game against San Diego stayed close and required a great deal of energy. Gonzaga should be able to return to its favorite end-of-the-season destination and compete for yet another WCC title, behind another solid offensive showing vs a BYU team that may just be a bit tired. This should be a great game, but the Zags will pull away in the end.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Northwestern/ Iowa Over 145.5: Google News Play. This is a Huge game for both teams and i feel that neither team can afford to hold back in this one, which has me looking at the Over here. Northwestern definitely has the ability to hit 72+ points in this one as they have averaged 66.6 ppg on the road, while Iowa has allowed 67.4 ppg at home and 71.6 ppg in their Big 10 games. The Cats also shoot well on the road, hitting 46% of their shots including a very solid 39.3% from long range. The Cats defensively have not been that great as they have allowed 67.6 ppg overall on 45% shooting, which is 266th in the country. On the road they have really struggled at the defensive end as they have allowed 74.6 ppg on 38.2% shooting. Iowa plays an uptempo game, especially at home where they have averaged 76.4 ppg on 45% shooting and I can really see them hit 75+ points on this one. With this being such a huge game we also should get the FT's at the end of it. I look for 150+ in this one.
Oklahoma/ Texas A&M over 124: The Aggies have played some real low scoring games this year, especially on the road where their last 4 games away from home have averaged just 105.8 ppg, but this team can get up and down the floor as evidenced by the game vs KSU recently and Oklahoma plays a faster paced game at home as their home games have averaged 139.8 ppg overall and the 138.9 ppg in their last 7 conference home games. This one should hit at least 130 points.
KANSAS -12 over Texas: (Added) Google News Play. Texas needs this game a ton, but the Jayhawks are still trying to lock down a number-one seed in the NCAA Tournament and want to head into the postseason on the roll. Robinson and Taylor aren't about to have a letdown in the home finale, so expect Kansas to complete the sweep of the Longhorns and head into the postseason with a full head of steam. The Jayhawks are also looking to avenge last season's home loss to the Longhorns, which was their only home loss in their last 91 home games. The Longhorns avoided what could have been a devastating blow to their tournament hopes Wednesday, rallying from 12 points down against Oklahoma for a 72-64 victory, but the Jayhawks will not let them come back in this one. They should win it by 15 or more. KEY TRENDS--- TEXAS is 4-17 ATS in road games versus very good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=39% after 15+ games since 1997, while KANSAS is 12-4 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season.
1 UNIT PLAYS
OREGON -17 over Utah: Pathetic showing by the Utes the other night. they may have just given up and Oregon will take advantage here. UTAH is 3-11 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons, while OREGON is 15-5 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game since 1997.
North Carolina -2 over DUKE: (Added) Payback for the Heels here and they should get it vs a young Duke squad that has struggled at home this year at times. N CAROLINA is 25-11 ATS in road games versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=25 free throws/game after 15+ games since 1997, while DUKE is 3-12 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
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2012/13 NBA OVERALL 403- 342- 9 (+72.4 Units)... TOP PLAYS 205-168-4 (+55.4 Units)
2012/13 NHL OVERALL 96-72-8 (+28.8 Units)... TOP PLAYS 50-30-3 (+39.56 Units)
2012 MLB Overall 642-522-31 (+69.41)... CBB (2012) Overall 583-515-19 (-22.8)... CFB (2012) Overall 168-198-2 (-78.5)... NFL (2012) Overall 150-140-4 (+7.8)
dam jeff i actually playing the under as i expect both teams to only score 115
BOL to you and I have been known to be wrong before. LOL
i kno, me too but i rather not be against your picks LOL
Grab that 5 star today, Jeff !! $$$
Jeff hits a high rate of these 5 stars....and taking games off the grid is a good thing....
I had a guy email me on my own site bitching after he bought my plays yesterday because I took Marist -5.5 as a bonus play (Had Evansville as a dog and he hated that too...won outright as a 2 point pup) ...and he said he could not watch the game and was pissed it was not a high profile game for lack of a better term. They played a team they had already beaten by 19 on the road and had them at home and covered with ease. I never heard back from the guy....LOL
Games off the grid do not carry sharp lines allot of time like the ACC, Big East or Big 12 ect.... That is a good thing for guys who do their homework....
Regards, Tony George- Big 12 Expert, 21 Year Veteran Capper, Pregame Pro Handicapper
*22 years Veteran Handicapper*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert*Monitored by Sports Watch
"I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"
Thanks Very much Tony. I have struggled on saturdays as I tend to play a lot of the high profile TV games. not a good Idea. Im gonna go back to some of the off the grid games today. I do have a Big East and Big 12 play as part of my top plays, but they may be the only ones i play as top plays. BOL and much respect to you Tony.
Thanks PD and Needmoney. BOL to you both as well.
Good luck today jeff.
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BOL today Jeff.
NFL 2013 ... 55-41-4 +8.80 Units
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