Splitsville yesterday as I went 2-2 in CBB. Let's get better results today.
TOP PLAYS 4 UNIT PLAY
St John's Depaul Under 152: The first meeting between these teams put up 168 points, but that was on Depaul's home floor and this one will be on the Red Storm's home court, where their games have averaged just 136.9 ppg. Depauls games overall have averaged 150.8 ppg, but their road games have averaged just 142.3 ppg, so you can see the influence they have at pushing the tempo on their home floor. Even though St John's won the game 87-81 in that first meeting, that is not their style of play. They prefer a game in the 60's like their last one (66-63) vs UCLA. The Redmen have scored 68.6 ppg on their home floor, but they are not a great shooting team as they have hit just 43.65% of their shots at home and 42.5 of their shots overall. Purdue has averaged 74.1 ppg overall, but just 68 ppg on the road, plus they don't shoot well on the road as they have hit just 41.6% of their shots away from home. Depaul's defense has been bad both overall and on the road, but I just don't see a St John's team that has averaged just 63 ppg in their last 5 games, putting up anything more than 72 or 73 points in this one. Thois is really too high a line, especially considering how low scoring St John's home games have been this year. I don't expect either team to hit 75 in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Texas Southern/ Miss Valley State Under 136: To good defensive teams square off if this SWAC meeting tonight. Ok overall Miss Vall has allowed 70.5 ppg, but this team is 14-0 in the SWAC and have played great defense in those games allowing just 60.9 ppg on 39.9% shooting. The have clamped down even more in their last 5 games allowing just 59.2 ppg on 40.1 % shooting, while also being stingy from long range, allowing just 23.2% during the last 5 games. Taking it a little further we see that they have allowed just 60.2 ppg on 39.5 % shooting at home. That last stat is pretty good to know as the TSU comes in averaging just 55.1 ppg on 38.8% shooting on the road this year. They did put up 84 points in their last road games vs Ark Pine Bluff, but in their previous 5 road conference games they averaged just 62.2 ppg and one of the games went to OT. TSU has had 2 OT games in their last 10 games and if we look at just regulation points we see that this team has allowed just 59.3 ppg in those games, including just 60.6 ppg in their last 6 on the road, so this is a team that can play solid defense as well. They will have a tough time tonight as the Delta Devils come in averaging 73.1 ppg in the SWAC and 73.6 ppg at home, but they do come in having scored just 59 ppg in their last 2 games overall and the first time these teams met they scored just 63 points (regulation) off of TSU. As you can see the defense is there for a low scoring game, plus only one team can really score in this one. The Last time these team met the game went to OT and just 126 points were scored in Regulation. I expect no more than that tonight.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Texas/ Baylor Over 138: Google News Play. The Bears have played solid defense for much of the year, but within the Big 12 they have allowed 67.7 ppg, while on the road that number goes up to 68.7 ppg. Texas is a team that can score on you as they come in averaging 73.9 ppg both overall and at home. Baylor has struggled to score of late as they have failed to score 60+ points in 3 of their last 4 games, but they still are a solid offensive club that has averaged 73.7 ppg overall and 71.6 ppg in the Big 12. Texas has played great defense at home this year (57.7 ppg), but they still allow 67.8 ppg in Big 12 play and they have allowed 77 ppg vs the 6 ranked teams they have faced this year. Both of these teams have the ability to hit 70 points in this, plus with this game being an expected close game we could have FT's at the end that will help as well. This is a huge game for both teams so I don't expect them to hold anything back as this one hits 140+ with ease.
UConn/ Villanova Over 137: The Cats have hit 70 points in 8 of their last 9 games, while UConn has allowed 80+ points in both of their last 2 road games. A weak Huskies offense should have a good showing vs a Villanova squad that has allowed 76.6 ppg in their last 10 games. I expect this one in the 140's.
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BOL Jeff. Was looking at the Johnnie's under as well. Something was really fishy about that being so high no matter what they did their last game against one another
As always you do good work, I check out your post often. but I played the over 133.5 on the Mississippi Valley State/Texas southern game. the line has steadily risen to 136. Valley likes to press and push the pace and add to it they play in a glorified high school gym. SWAC teams are some the worst shooting and offensively inefficient teams in the country, and they try to slow the games down with valley. TxSouthern is an athletic team that i can see getting sucked into a running game. Hopefully it middles at 135.
Playing the under in St Johns game as well. GL!
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LIke the over in the big 12 game jeff, BOL.
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yeah i don't understand why the st.johns total is so high, there not a good shooting team what scares me is depauls press because there press often gives up quick mae baskets
Good luck Jeff.
THanks very much everyone and BOL to you all as well.
Yeah Guys to me that St Johns/ Depaul OU line is a lot like yesterday's Indiana/ Iowa OU. It's confusing as to why its that high. St John's home games average 13 ppg less than that total and they should get this game at their pace.
Jmoo thanks for the nice words. I just see more defense in this game than offense. Both teams have the ability to hold the opposition under 60 points. I don't think that will happen, but I also done expect either team to hit 68 points here as well. BOL to you tonight though.
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