Talk Basketball Live with Joe Gavazzi!
Any discussion of handicapping hoops must center around the quest for value. Since you can't know where you are going unless you know where you have been you must understand that the average difference from the line is approximately 8 points in College Hoops. It is just slightly higher for the NBA. To point out the importance of value, consider the fact that 40% of Coll Basketball games fall within 5 points of the opening number (just slightly lower for the NBA).
A good place to begin is with fundamental differences between the teams. To best express this, one can look for statistical mismatches. An example of this may be a team's proficiency, scoring and defending from the 3 point arc. When matched up against their opponent, one can find huge average differences. For a documented study of the 3 point shot this Coll Basketball season please check my blog which will be released this week on the subject.
No discussion, however, is complete without the emotional ramifications of a hoop matchup. A return to the basic principles of momentum, letdown, and bounce-back are essential. One can either make a subjective judgment of a team's emotional response to their previous games. Or, you can quantify these in technical fashion in what is widely known as situational handicapping. In any event, the conclusions drawn are those that can collectively be considered to be a team's current form.
There are 2 other key components that play out more successfully in handicapping hoops than in any other sport. Those are the respective numbers for a team home/road profile and the trends that relate to a coaches ATS profile. These are valuable along with the ability to quantify current form because these are the factors that are least represented in the current line.
As important as the above factors may be in the actual handicapping of the game, the ability to use successful GSM (game selection management) is of vital significance in the performance of each individual handicapper. GSM is broken down into 2 areas. The first involves the games you actually choose to select or wager vis-à-vis those you choose to discard. The second area of GSM is equally important as it revolves around the strength of the plays that you eventually choose to make. For example, a 2-2 (50%) result can look far different if your 2 winners are your stronger plays rather than your lower rated plays.
In conclusion, all your excellent handicapping work and game selection management is meaningless unless you employ a strong money management system. Key elements of any money management system must include the ability to increase your wager during hot streaks, reduce your wager during cold streaks, and contain a component that will allow you to pull down profits at the conclusion of a hot streak. There are very few people among the 2% of us who are winners at this endeavor who succeed without a strong money management system in place.
I will be back LIVE from 5:30-6:30 PM ET to follow up with any questions or discussions! Talk to you then.
Joe Gavazzi
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My man Joe is on a 10-2 Coll Streak the L3D going 4-0 last night. His NBA last night was 3-1!
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With football over at Pregame we have lined up FIVE PREGAME PROS to each take a day next week to host a thread breaking down the basketball season, give out handicapping tips and field your questions!Each day a Pro will take over with a new thread and put it up bright and early filling it with great tips on betting hoops and opening up the floor to a general discussion from the Pregame Community. Between 5:30-6:30pm ET that Pregame Pro will be in the thread LIVE to talk basketball with everyone!The current schedule:Monday: Talk Basketball Live with Vegas Runner!Tuesday: Joe GavazziWednesday: Scott SpreitzerThursday: Mike HookFriday: Greg ShakerSo, who will start off the Tuesday discussion?
My question is this. I have struggled on saturdays, ya know the day with a billion games. do you cap the whole board to to find you games or just look at at certain section of games or maybe just focus on a two or 3 conferences on those days. What I have been doing lately is just making a play or 2 for the afternoon and then capping the games that start at 5pm or 6 pm and beyond. THat way i chop the board in half a bit.
Just looking for ideas on how to tackle the days with a huge amount of games. Thanks in advance Joe.
Having some problems with my the amount of characters in my forum signature, so I will post my records in my threads for the sports they pertain to.
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Jeff
Shortcuts are always nice to have if you are doing any task. And each handicapper must find out what works for him. After 32 years, I continue to hand log every Coll result for each of the 240 teams. I find this to be a huge help in staying current with the trends of each team. For the Saturday card, I begin around noon on Thursday after I have made my final selections for the Thursday games. I make a cursory analysis of the approximately 100 games on the card. From that I narrow my selections to approximately 30 potential plays. I further cull that list to approximately 20 games on which I do written analysis. From those 20 written games I use additional game selection management to reduce it to my final number of plays which I release. The final step in the game selection management process is to put ratings on the games. From a money management perspective, I implore my clients to break down the Saturday card into 2 distinctive betting periods, before and after 6 PM ET. That way you are able to adjust your bankroll for the afternoon results and get a better feel on your momentum for the day. Again, this is the way I personally handicap the Saturday card which I have found best works for me.
Joe
Thanks very much for the response Joe. This is very helpful info. Thanks again. I will be back if I have any other questions (im sure i will lol). BOL to you today.
Very much looking forward to more of your thoughts Joe and might have a question or two myself on your perspective..
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Joe,
Stoopid question...... but recently I have been taking into consideration of going opposite of teams first matchup results ATS. If first game went under and vegas posts # above 1st game, i've been taking the over and vice versa (of course w/ supporting evidence to suggest); and also on line value mixed w/ some perception.
I don't "follow" teams, watch much basketball, or know many players names; but have been doing rather well (considering my limited fund of knowledge)
on this angle.
In your years of 'cappin, do you feel like this trend is valid, or i'm i just lucky? Of course, lose some too, but win more and have had some good days. I find it strange that I follow football like religion, and for some reason information overload inhibits my success to some degree, as i have grandiose illusions - and there are not two games in football.
blab, blab, blab...........
Example 2nite:
Gator @ Cats (-9.5/142)
First battle had total set at 136 and game went drastically under mark. Now vegas has matchup set 6 pts. higher here. Both teams are capable of hitting this mark and good ft%, and shoot% as a whole. Cats can run it. Number early rise.
So, I sense that this total matches up w/ my profile angle and may take the over here. Thoughts??
OTOH, taking the lizards to cover here does not support such an angle. Cats are much better at the rupp and can't trust weak defense and latest efforts by flo to close the gap. Def. lean gator, but cats poor ATS record and home court conf. game; feel like the over the total better way to go in this one......
blab, blab, blab.........
I know by following you through the years that you have had great success in conference action in the second meeting of the season between two opponents. Can you let the readers know what you look for in conference rematches?
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Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.
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Thanks guys for your support... we can all learn from each other.