Cincinnati (+6.5) over Connecticut 7:00
There's just too much value on the Bearcats tonight. This team has been hot ever since the Xavier brawl (with X trending in the opposite direction). Connecticut is expected to be without Boatright again tonight, and that whole thing has been a huge distraction for the Huskies. Tonight it will show. Cashmere Wright will have his way with UConn's backcourt, as he is only beginning to show why he was such a hot prospect coming in to Cincy. Dion Dixon has been on fire of late too. Not to mention that Yancy Gates is a man among boys and UConn has no one to match up with him. I like the Bearcats to get another road win in the Big East tonight. +6.5 is just too hard to pass up.
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GASTENVELDJ - Cincinnati +6-
VERDICT - AGREE!
Great analysis.... I am actually releasing this game tonite as well. Here is my analysis
No denying that the defending champs are again a force with which to be reckoned. Yet it must be noted, that no one is stepping up to fill the leadership role of Kemba. Yet trailing the Bearcats by a game in the loss column will bring full focus from a Huskie team who is undefeated at home this season, but just 2-3-1 ATS. Cincinnati showed no letdown following their brawl with Xavier. In fact, since that 76-53 loss to X, they have gone 9-1 SU, winning all three road games at tough sites Wright, Pitt and Georgetown. This is a great defensive team, allowing just 59/40/31. Side with this defensive dog to come in under the number as they play with revenge for a pair of competitive losses last season against the defending champs.
819 San Diego St +9.5
Probably on the other side of the sharps on this one but for me +9.5 is too many in this match up. San Diego St will have a tough challenge playing at The Pit, but thus far they have responded to tough opponents and games. San Diego St has been at home for a while now and I can understand how one might think they come out flat here, but I do not think so. A conference game against an opponent that they know is tough; I think they will be ready. I think the injury to Jamaal Williams plays into the line but he is listed as probable. Will his game be affected? And will he be starting as he was for the last 6 games? Either way I do not think San Diego St goes away easy in this one and keeps it inside the number.
I have REVENGE factor here, surely coach Mac does also. I have bluejays by 4.38
P.S. I really enjoy this ask the judge thread thanks again
JAAQUINO01 - San Diego St +9-
VERDICT - Disagree
Part of the reason why The Pit is so magical is the fact that Albuquerque is a qualified altitude site. When rested sea level teams travel here it is tremendously tough for them to play the full 40 minutes. And this is the st time the Aztecs have gone anywhere near altitude this year. It is also a major reason why Lobo 4th year HC Alford is 41-24 ATS HF at New Mexico including 4-2 this season. The situation also plays to the Lobos favor with the Aztecs in a letdown situation following their league opener, a 69-67 survival vs. avenging UNLV. The Lobos playing with their own double revenge are on a major roll at 13-0 SU, 9-1 ATS. Though value has been eroded off the opening sendout, I would not be an Aztec backer even at this price.
San Diego st. up to 10.5 Joe what about now?? do u still back the Lobo's laying 10.5??
HOTCORNERS - Creighton -2
VERDICT - DISAGREE
But question how much of the 4.38 difference in your model is attributed to revenge. There has been a lot of research done on road favs seeking revenge for a loss as a double digit home fav. Seems like a natural... right?! For some reason, nothing seems to work. Easy to love the Bluejays whose 83/52/46 offense is far superior to anyone else in that loop. And their 7-1 SU 6-2 ATS road and neutral log is most appealing. Certainly they are motivated to keep pace with Wichita for the MVC lead. But there is urgency on the part of the home-standing Black Bears who enter off a home loss (to Evansville) on a court where they are 41-6 SU 2+Y. Trailing the Valley Leaders by 2 full games look for one of the more intense efforts from the Black Bears of 1st year HC Lusk. Favor home team to get a narrow victory.
As I said, wouldn't be an Aztec backer even at this inflated price.
Joe is top notch. Thanks for the analysis Judge Joe. It swayed my side on Kentucky last night and now I'm lookin for more tonight!