SEMO has turned into the surprise team of the OVC this year. They sit atop the Western Division with Murray St. with a record of 6-3. They are riding a four game winning streak with the last two coming on the road at Murray St. and Austin Peay. They play tonight at a much improved Jacksonville St. This is a huge game for SEMO because after tonight they have 6 games remaining and only 2 on the road, at 2-7 E. Illinois and 0-10 SIU-E. That's important because SEMO is 4-0 in conference home games and 8-2 overall. This SEMO surge can be traced directly to the emergence of 6'4" freshman Denzel Mahoney. Because of all the injuries that SEMO has went thru he has had to play most of the time at the power forward spot. There's not another "4" in the league that can guard him. He's a good 3 point shooter 45.2%. If the defender presses him on the arch he will just drive by them and he is very good at finishing at the rim. If he's fouled he's shooting 86.0% from the line. He has scored 20 or more in the last 5 games and was selected the OVC freshman of the week the last 4 weeks. If teams try and double team him that would leave 6'6" All Conference Antonius Cleveland free to to wreck havoc on them and teams won't let that happen. Their weakness is still against teams that have a strong inside game because of their lack of size. Their only true inside threat is undersized 6'7" Trey Kellum. As long as he can stay in the game and out of foul trouble SEMO is going to be hard to beat. When he get's in foul trouble SEMO's going to struggle.
JSU has had a resurgent year after hiring new head coach Ray Harper, formerly at W. Kentucky. But they have lost 3 of the last 4 games, the last two at home. JSU's last two losses were without 7' center N. Gigi who has been sitting out with an injured foot. Gigi is listed as questionable for tonight's game. Another one of their big men, 6'8" 250lb. freshman J. Cross had to leave the last game with a hip problem. Coach Harper doesn't comment on injuries so both of the status of both is unknown.
The defenses of both teams are pretty equal while SEMO is the better offensive team and better from the line. Probable the most important factor in this game is how it's called by the refs. If it's a tightly called game where the ref's are calling every little bump as a foul, that happens a lot in OVC games, that will benefit JSU as it will most likely mean Kellum has to spend a lot of time on the bench. On the other hand the OVC usually has a better set of ref's in weekday games than they do on Saturday games. If Gigi and Cross are out I like SEMO to win outright. If not I think it will go right down to the wire and be decided in the last minute or two.
Like most college games this one can easily have big 15-20 point swings so I would prefer once the games start no one make any comments about them in this thread one way or the other. Wait till the games are over with. Thank you. SEMO is playing with a lot of confidence now and I like getting the points in this one.
3* #591 SEMO +6 -120
ADDED GAMES:
2* #564 ILLINOIS ST. -7 -120