NCAAB YTD: 98-95 51% (-3.13u)
2 Unit: 2-2 (-0.2u)
1.5 Unit: 2-2 (-0.24u)
1 Unit: 94-91 (-2.69u)
___________________________________________________
Friday: 1-1 (-0.05)
Saturday February 18th
Baylor -2 -110 (1.1u / 1u)
Kansas has had Baylor’s number in recent meeting but I think this is a good spot to support the Bears. Kansas has been escaping games by the skin of their teeth in recent weeks, going through the Big 12 gauntlet with a target on their backs. Fatigue is beginning to become a real problem for Kansas as was seen in their Miracle win vs West Virginia on Monday. Although they have been off since then I believe there is going to be a let down here. This game means so much more to the Bears who are 13-1 SU at home and looking to avenge 3 straight close losses to the Jayhawks. Baylor has a massive edge inside the paint in this matchup and will do their best to pound it inside and get KU into foul trouble. KU has been on the right side of a lot of coin flip games this year. However, I think Baylor gets them here tonight at home in their “Super Bowl” game of the year. Baylor will slow down the pace of the game and grind KU down late, Ill lay the small price with the Bears.
George Mason +4 -104 (1.04u / 1u)
The Patriots are playing their best basketball of the season, winning 5 of their last 6 games. The offence has really hit its stride in recent weeks and will be too much for Rhode Island to keep up with. The rams are a very good defensive team but can go through their struggles on the offensive end of the floor. With exception to a 11 point win @ Davidson, they do not have any other impressive road wins this season. They come in losers of 2 straight and seem to be running out of gas down the stretch. George Mason has really been shooting the lights out of late and this is just too much value to pass up on, I had this game lined a pick em. The Patriots also hold the massive edge in FT shooting which will come into play in what should be a tight game throughout. The Rams are only shooting 60% from the FT line in conference play.
USC +9.5 -103 (1.03u / 1u)
Now that this USC team is fully healthy, I’m really looking for spots to play on them as the season winds down. This is a well coached, balanced team on both ends of the floor. They have defeated this UCLA team 4 games in a row including a 8 point win earlier this season. UCLA is having one of the more impressive offensive seasons in recent memory but their defence still has some big issues. They don’t really take much pride in defending and that leaves them vulnerable in this point spread range. USC will not be intimidated by this team or this environment today and they will come into this game expecting to win, not just compete. UCLA has not been able to win by margin on this floor against the Pac 12 elite; 11 point loss vs. Arizona, 3 Point win vs. Oregon. They have been able to feast on the weak within the conference but they will be in for a real battle here with USC. The Trojans didn’t even have Benny Boatwright in the first matchup when they beat the Bruins. His paint presence will be a big Plus for USC in what should be a tight game throughout.
North Dakota +6 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
North Dakota has been (quietly) cashing tickets all season long going 13-7-1 ATS. The Fighting Hawks have already taken care of Weber State this season, defeating them 83-77 in mid January. With 1st place in the Big Sky on the line today I expect a tight game throughout, one which ND can without a doubt win outright. Weber State has been poor in this home favourite role, burning money at home this season, going 2-5 ATS. They have only covered 2 of their last 10 games ATS. Meanwhile, North Dakota comes into this game covering 8 of their last 10 ATS. They have also covered 4 times in a row in this matchup. This should be a game that goes down to the wire, with two nearly identical teams fighting for 1st place in the conference.
Georgia +7.5 -106 (1.06u / 1u)
The Bulldogs have been the kings of the close game this season, including an OT loss @ Kentucky earlier in this season. That was a game they should have won outright and will seek to get revenge here today. This is a role I like to support the Bulldogs, catching +7.5 at home. This is their last chance at a signature win within the SEC. Kentucky has been playing much better defence as of late but has struggled to cover these kinds of numbers on the road this season. If Georgia can guard the 3 point line, I expect them to be in position to win this game outright. Georgia will make it a point to feed Maten in the paint and make the Wildcats really work on defence and try to get to the FT line. This looks like a nice spot to back the Bulldogs, looking to avenge the OT loss earlier this season. Kentucky is still a young team who has its flaws, I don’t think the defence is fixed yet. +7.5 is just too much value to pass up on.
Texas Tech +12 -103 (1.03u / 1u)
Texas Tech is a hard team to blowout. They take care of the ball, play slow, make good decisions and always give themselves a chance to win. They have played in so many close games, including a 1 point OT win against West Virginia earlier this season. West Virginia is coming off that inexcusable collapse @ Kansas and I have to think there is some kind of hangover effect here. When you make West Virginia play a half court game, you take away their strengths. Tech will not let them get out into the open floor and get easy baskets. Their senior landed team will take care of the ball and work it in the half court. The Red Raiders have covered 4 straight games, and have looked much better on offence than they did earlier in the season. This is just too many points to pass up on with a team who will not be rattled by the pressure or venue. Tech only had 12 turnovers in the first matchup and were able to shoot 50% from the field. If they can duplicate that success today they will easily hang within this number
ML Parlay; Iowa & Marquette +121 (1u / 1.21u)
I like both of these teams today but didn’t want to lay the number with either of them. Marquette looks to be catching Xavier at the right time here without Bluiett and Sumner. Without those two guys, Xavier is going to struggle to get wins, as seen earlier this week when they crumbled down the stretch @ Providence. Bluiett is listed at questionable but the -3.5 line tells me that he won’t be playing. That is big trouble for the X-men and I expect Marquette to have too much on the offensive end for the Musketeers to keep up with without their two best players. As for Iowa, this is more of a fade against Illinois who has appeared to throw in the towel and is going with a youth movement. Iowa is young in their own right but are gelling very well as a team, sharing the ball and playing with tons of energy. They are 12-3 U at home this year, meanwhile Illinois is just 1-5 SU on the highway this season. The Hawkeye defence kept me away from laying the -5 but I do like them to win this game in SU fashion.