2016 NCAAB Tournament Record:
13 – 8 @ 62% for +4.2 Units
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#1: Villanova +2
UNC ranks #1 in OffEff and #23 in DefEff, while 'Nova ranks #2 in OffEff and #6 in DefEff this year. I think this advantage defensively will be a factor in today's championship game. Both teams can score inside, both are excellent at the FT-line, but one significant advantage that Villanova has in this game is their 3PT shooting - 36% vs 32%. UNC doesn't defend the 3PT shot very well at all (rank bottom 100 in the nation...out of 351 schools), and they could be vulnerable there on the defensive end. Plus Villanova's ability to score in the paint will prevent UNC from totally selling out to stop the perimeter scoring. Another advantage that I see is Villanova's superior ability to force turnovers - 21% TO-rate vs 18% for UNC. In a close game between the top teams in college basketball, an ability to force and extra TO or two could very well be a deciding factor. Like I've mentioned earlier, I think Villanova's D will be a deciding factor in this one as I like their chances for a small upset. They've held Kansas and Oklahoma to fewer than 60 points each, and both of those teams are premier offensive teams in college basketball. I like their chances of winning with their D tonight as well.
Good Luck and enjoy the game.