Villanova and NC have both played great all Tournament. Villanova is battle tested having beaten arguably the 2nd best team in the country (KU), and crushing all their other opponents including Oklahoma (a 2 seed).
Contrast that tournament resume with NC. NC has gotten a dream draw, basically avoiding any top 15 teams. Yes, they have looked ultra solid pounding Providence, Indiana, N Dame, and Syracuse after struggling early in their 1st round game vs. No16 Florida Golf Coast. The more I look at that NC 41, FL G C 40 halftime score, the more I think NC may be in trouble tonight..........
What is more troubling to me is the lack of a close game. Nova has a clear coaching advantage, AND their team got valuable experience when they outplayed KU down the stretch. One has to wonder how Roy Williams and NC will respond to a close game. It is an easy forecast to predict that a team that has often struggled to make 3 pointers (they started 0/12 vs. Syracuse) will struggle to make them when the pressure is REALLY on.
NC IS the better team.......however with Villanova playing their best ball of the year, I think if +3 pops up today, it's a bet I will make. NC could certainly win this game by 10, however, I think the intangibles largely favor Nova here. Not to mention, I think all the pressure is on NC in this game, as they are the favorite.
It's unclear who the better team is Villanova or KU. Given that pre tournament we considered KU to be at the same level (or maybe 1 point better) than NC, taking Nova +3 would be a clear choice here.