ZIGGYBEATS said:
Hey Dave you ever share your writeups post mortem?
Sometimes I even share them pre-mortem - all you gotta do is click the play on my page:
558 NotreDame -1.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 557 LouisvilleAnalysis: IF there were a ML out at the moment I'd forgo the point here - but as usual I try to get the work done early. Here's the thing - Louisville imposed a post season ban on themselves, we all know that. People thought they'd perhaps not be focused against Boston College. Not so much. Then they go to Duke where we simply KNOW every teams' going to bring their best, and they did, only to fall short at the end. THAT could be the emotional nail in their coffin for a bit - now their on the road against a team the really NEEDS this game for many reasons - Conference seeding as well as post season hopes. Notre Dame is fifth in the second best Conference in the nation, they're 8-4 in the ACC, with a road win at Duke and a sweet home win over North Carolina last week. What really impressed me is that two days after that huge win over the Heels they flew to Clemson and beat them - on the road. FWIW Louisville lost at Clemson and they simply don't have a good road win - the best team they've beaten on the road is G-Tech. They've played the 13th easiest ACC schedule (ND's isn't much better but they've got signature wins) and NOW their schedule gets tough, and let's not forget they're playing for nothing, really. The Irish are number ONE in the nation in NOT turning the ball over, so I worry less about L'ville's pressure. Notre Dame's defense is suspect, but L'ville's OFFENSE is 12th in efficiency in the ACC - the Irish are an exponentially better free throw shooting team - so simply to win the game they NEED, at HOME - and being favored over what's now a ranked opponent - I think that's for good reason.
The other game I am considering at the moment is Gonzaga - they haven't lost a game by six points but once in almost two years, I know they're off - THEY need the game more than SMU and +6 is a lot. Texas A & M and perhaps LSU although their youth scares me. I think we might get one more game out of Texas - we'll see.