NRL YTD (15-9) +4.40 Units / updated
Newcastle Knights v Penrith Panthers
Hunter Stadium
Friday 11:59 pm est
Despite trailing in every game so far, the Newcastle Knights are somehow undefeated after three weeks and will look to continue their impressive winning streak against the Penrith Panthers on Saturday afternoon.
Including the backend of the 2014 season, Newcastle have won their past five games and 11 of their last 14 – including their last six games at home.
Yet their biggest test now lies in the Panthers.
Even without lynchpin Jamie Soward, Penrith remained impressive against a full-strength Roosters outfit on Monday night despite finishing the game on the wrong end of the scoreboard. They've named an unchanged side this week.
The home side has been forced into making one change following Korbin Sims's two-match suspension. David Fa'alogo will start at prop while Paterika Vaivai will come onto the bench for Newcastle. Tyler Randell has also been named though Sione Mata'utia is favoured to be in the final 17. Akuila Uate requires two more tries to reach the century mark.
Watch out Knights: Wingers are usually the least of a team's worries but when you're faced with the challenge of Josh Mansour then you have to change your tune very quickly. Mansour was a man on a mission in his return to the NRL in Round 3. Now with four Tests for Australia to his name, Mansour has taken plenty of his confidence from his 2014 Four Nations tournament and it showed last week when he produced 219 metres, nine tackle breaks and a brilliant try assist for his centre Jamal Idris.
Watch out Panthers: It's unusual to see a fullback come up with 30 tackles in a game. But considering Newcastle's current tactic of shifting Kurt Gidley to hooker when Mata'utia replaces starting dummy-half Adam Clydsdale, it becomes understandable. Gidley well and truly earned man-of-match honours against the Titans last week, and with his hamstring qualms improving by the day expect the same kind of influence from the Knights legend in this one.
Key Match-Up: Dane Gagai vs. Jamal Idris. These tackle-busting centres will be readying themselves for an absolutely outstanding showdown. Combining for a ridiculous seven tries in the first three rounds of the season, Idris and Gagai should expect plenty of traffic in both attack and defence considering they're both key mens for their teams. Gagai (18 tackle breaks; second in the NRL) and Idris (15 tackle breaks; equal fourth) will give each other plenty of headaches in defence, though Gagai has been getting through more work with the ball in hand with double the yardage of his opponent so far this season.
The History: Played 40; Knights 22, Panthers 15, Drawn 3. Newcastle didn't go close to getting a win against the Panthers in 2014. Facing off in Rounds 1 and 9, Penrith disposed of Newcastle by 22 points each time in what was a lean period for the Knights. However before then, Penrith hadn't beaten Newcastle since 2010.
What are the Odds: Newcastle may be unbeaten and at home but Sportsbet customers are all over the Panthers at $1.85 in head-to-head betting. The money is running three to one in favour of Penrith despite their shorter turnaround and again being without Jamie Soward.
Match Officials: Referee – Jared Maxwell; Assistant Referee – Gavin Morris; Sideline Officials – Russell Turner and Jon Stone; Video Referees – Steve Clark and Luke Phillips.
The Way We See It: Penrith's loss in Round 3 proved how important Soward is to the Panthers' fortunes. Matt Moylan wasn't half as effective as he is with his usual five-eighth by his side – something Isaac John will have to sort out quick smart. Considering how strong Newcastle has been at home in recent times, an upset may be on the cards. Newcastle by two points.
Sleepy's Offical Play - Newcastle (-125)
____________________________________________________________
Cronulla Sharks v Gold Coast Titans
Remondis Stadium
Saturday, 2:30am est
Like a shimmering oasis in a desert of defeats, this game represents short-term salvation to two teams who have just three wins in their past 18 matches between them dating all the way back to Round 18 last season.
Unfortunately for either the Sharks or the Titans, however, someone is going to land in nothing but sand while the other bathes in the welcoming waters of a win.
These are two of only three teams still winless through three rounds – the other being the Cowboys – and both are in desperate need of some good news after a trying past 12 months.
The Sharks ran headlong into a rampant Storm outfit in Melbourne last Saturday night following losses to the Raiders and Broncos at home in the opening fortnight while the Titans have dropped their two games at home by a combined total of three points to the Wests Tigers and Knights.
The Sharks' misfiring attack has been forced into a shake-up with the suspension of five-eighth Ben Barba, Wade Graham moving in to the No.6 jersey to partner Jeff Robson in the halves and Anthony Tupou elevated from the bench and into the back row.
With Sam Tagataese out through injury a spot on the Cronulla bench has been handed to exciting prospect Jack Bird to make his NRL debut.
The Titans also have a new-look halves combination with Daniel Mortimer looking at a month on the sidelines with a wrist injury and reigning under-20s player of the year Kane Elgey coming into the team to earn his first NRL call-up.
Having welcomed back Greg Bird, Dave Taylor and Beau Falloon last week a new halves combination is less than ideal for a team trying to finally settle on their best 17 although Elgey has shown promise in the trials and early rounds of the Intrust Super Cup.
Chris Heighington celebrates a significant milestone on Saturday playing his 250th NRL game while William Zillman plays his 150th in what is the Titans' 200th premiership fixture since entering the competition in 2007.
Watch Out Sharks: He's soured the memories of his own wedding, been stripped of the club captaincy and is currently embroiled in a drugs scandal to which he has pled not guilty; it's been a horror off-season for Titans lock Greg Bird. But with a restricted preparation Bird was back to his old self on the field on Sunday, playing 65 minutes, running for 136 metres, racking up 24 tackles as well as three tackle busts and an offload in his first game for 2015. Expect an even bigger effort in his second game back against his old club and opposite good mate Paul Gallen.
Watch Out Titans: The 2013 Dally M Prop of the Year played just 12 games in 2014 but it is clear through three rounds that Andrew Fifita is on the verge of the form that elevated him to Origin and Test honours two years ago. Although his numbers were down slightly in Melbourne last week, Fifita is still averaging more than 156 metres per game from three starts with an average per carry of 9.77 metres. His 15 tackle busts make him an ever-present threat in the middle of the ruck and gives his team great momentum to roll down field. The Titans had trouble containing the likes of Kade Snowden and Korbin Sims in the middle last week; it goes to another level again when Fifita and Gallen are on the charge.
Key Match-Up: Jeff Robson v Kane Elgey. The battle-hardened veteran of 136 first grade games across nine seasons against the flashy new kid on the block making his NRL debut will be an intriguing aspect to this contest. The playmaking responsibility for the Sharks will fall more to Robson with Barba on the sidelines while Elgey will be encouraged to showcase his skills alongside Titans five-eighth Aidan Sezer. If the Sharks are to win Robson will have played a leading hand but all Elgey needs is to play a solid supporting role to put the Titans in the box seat.
History: Played 11; Sharks 6; Titans 5. The Titans have opened their past two seasons at Remondis against the Sharks with Cronulla earning an ugly 12-10 win in the wake of the ASADA allegations in 2013 and the Titans nabbing the two competition points 18-12 last year. Although the Titans went winless in their first three visits to the Shire the past four matches between these teams at the venue have been split two apiece.
What Are The Odds: Sharks ($1.50) v Titans ($2.60). Surprisingly there’s 60 per cent more money wagered on the Titans than the Sharks despite Cronulla opening as strong favourites. Gold Coast are also more popular in line betting, where they’re receiving 5.5 points start.
Did You Know: Captain Paul Gallen is the only current Sharks player to have turned out for the club on more occasions (241 appearances) than Titans prop Luke Douglas. Douglas played 146 consecutive games for the Sharks between 2006-2011 winning 56 of them and scoring 10 tries.
Match Officials: Referee: Gerard Sutton; Assistant Referee: Matt Noyen; Touch Judges: David Ryan and Phil Henderson; Video Referees: Shayne Hayne and Henry Perenara.
The Way We See It: Desperate times call for desperate measures but it will be the team that can find their composure first that will take control of this result. Ordinarily you would suggest that the home team may boast something of an edge but the Sharks have won just two of their past 14 games at Remondis while the Titans' away record last year was better than their efforts at home. The Titans looked a far more cohesive unit against the Knights last week but the soft tries they conceded through the middle are of concern against a team such as the Sharks. Cronulla by 4.
Sleepy's Official Pick - Sharks (-5.5)
__________________________________________________________
Dragons v Sea Eagles
WIN Stadium
Saturday, 4:30am est
A picturesque backdrop is guaranteed for this Saturday evening's battle of the beaches in what doubles as the first Wollongong fixture for 2015, and the 100th NRL game at the historic venue.
Daylight savings might be ending in NSW next week, but some Dragons critics were of the belief the sun had already set on the joint venture club after opening the season with two uninspiring losses.
However last week's 22-20 comeback victory in Canberra has revived a pulse in the Red V, a gritty breakthrough that has given hierarchy a breath to figure out how they can fix things up.
Part of the solution could lie in re-signed rookie Euan Aitken, whose dynamic performance on debut has given the Dragons faithful some semblance of a bright future.
Coach Paul McGregor has rewarded Aitkan with another berth, as well as giving lock Trent Merrin his first run-on start of the year. Prop George Rose is named on an extended bench after missing last week's clash due to the birth of his first child.
Similarly, Manly's last rites were written when five-eighth Kieran Foran announced his decision to follow Daly Cherry-Evans out the door at season's end a fortnight ago.
Instead, they bounced back with a trademark tough win over rivals Melbourne before going down 16-12 to former coach Des Hasler and his Bulldogs in the Brookvale sandpit last Friday.
Foran has been named to return after missing last week with a hamstring complaint, while skipper Jamie Lyon has recovered from a leg issue that forced him to pull out on game eve.
Feleti Mateo moves back to the second row and Tom Symonds is shuffled back to the bench.
Watch Out Dragons: There numbers aren't quite there yet – he's got seven offloads, one try, one line break assist and four tackle busts in three games – but the reliable eye-test shows savvy veteran Feleti Mateo is slowly rekindling the form that once had him in line for an Origin jumper. The subtle dummy, footwork at the line and one-handed offload have all been sighted over the first three weeks, and signs point to us seeing more of them as his rebirth in Brookvale continues.
Watch Out Sea Eagles: Some were quick to ask whether Penrith-bound forward Trent Merrin's heart was in it for the Red V this year, but the evidence should surely put an end to the conjecture. Here's his statline through the first three games: 181 metres and 38 tackles per game, eight tackle busts, three line breaks, a try and – get this – ZERO errors. He's arguably been the Dragons' best thus far this year.
Key Match-Up: Josh Dugan v Brett Stewart. It seems you can't go a weekend anymore without some kind of battle for the NSW No.1 jumper, and Saturday evening will be no different. The Dragons fullback is the favourite, mainly due to his status as the incumbent Blues centre who spent the majority of his career at the back. He'll want to make amends for last week's sin-binning in Canberra against the ultra-experienced Stewart, a cunning custodian who would very much be in NSW coach Laurie Daley's calculations to fill Jarryd Hayne's spot. It's more than likely that one of these two stars will decide this contest.
The History: Played 22; Dragons 14, Manly 8. The northern beaches have proven their superiority in the past three encounters, including a decisive 21-18 victory in July last year. The south coasters ruled the roost in the four before that, as well as leading the tally 3-1 in games played in Wollongong since their merger.
What Are The Odds: Dragons ($2.30) v Sea Eagles ($1.58). Eighty per cent of the hold is on Manly as far as head-to-head betting is concerned. Sea Eagles 13+ is the most popular option in margin betting as well.
Match Officials: Referee – Gavin Badger; Assistant Referee – Chris Sutton; Touch Judges – Jeff Younis & Lawrence McDonell; Video Referees – Steve Chiddy & Ben Galea.
The Way We See It: The Dragons showed there was life in those Red V jumpers last week, but it's impossible to look past the experience and know-how of a Manly side bolstered by the return of Foran and Lyon. The home ground advantage makes it close, however we're going to stick with a Sea Eagles victory by 10 points.
Sleepy's Offical Pick - Manly (-3.5)
______________________________________________________
Warriors v Broncos
Mt Smart Stadium
Saturday 9pm est
Big victories last weekend for these two sides will mean little come Sunday afternoon, in a match which will celebrate the 20-year anniversary since they met in the Warriors' first-ever competitive match.
Sitting on identical two-win, one-loss records, both teams hit their straps last week – Brisbane winning 44-22 against the Cowboys and the Warriors beating Parramatta 29-16.
The New Zealanders can now lay claim to the Telstra Premiership's largest causality ward, with influential fullback Sam Tomkins the latest star to go missing through injury.
That means youngster Tuimoala Lolohea assumes the No.1 jersey with new signing Matt Allwood making his club debut in the centres, while Dominique Peyroux is added to a five-man bench.
Brisbane coach Wayne Bennett has made no changes to his side for Sunday's clash at Mt Smart Stadium and will bring former Warrior Todd Lowrie along as 18th man at this stage.
The New Zealand club's marketing team is sure to put on a big show in recognition of the 20-year match, from there it will be up to the 17 on the field to make sure they meet the same expectations.
The chance to watch these forward packs go at it is just about worth the price of admission alone – of the 12 players starting in the pack for both teams, 10 have played for their country or state.
Watch out Warriors: It hasn't been hard to see so far in 2015 that the Warriors have struggled without Tomkins on the field, and his stats prove his worth. In just 91 minutes of football this season the former Wigan player clocked up four tackle breaks and two line-break assists. He has become an integral organiser for the Warriors on both sides of the ball.
After a dour start to the season where they scored just eight points in the opening two games, Brisbane will have gained plenty of confidence from last week's eight-try rout of the Cowboys. The Broncos were nearly unstoppable with the ball, breaking the line eight times, getting away 12 offloads and running for over 1800 total metres.
Watch out Broncos: The Warriors' left-edge is fast-becoming one of the most prolific in the competition. Last week between Ryan Hoffman, Solomone Kata and Manu Vatuvei they scored four of the Warriors' five tries and ran for 485 metres combined. Brisbane captain Justin Hodges and winger Lachlan Maranta will need to be at their defensive best while marking up on them.
The Warriors blew the Eels off the park in the opening quarter last week, all but securing the result before the half-hour mark. Across the whole first period in that match the Warriors were very strong, completing at 96 per cent, outscoring their opponents 22-0 and owning 70 per cent of possession. The Broncos can't afford to start slow against this mob.
Key Match-Up: Simon Mannering v Corey Parker. The two veterans wearing 13 will have a busy day in the middle of the park, cleaning up the damage done by the talented packs and speedsters both sides possess. Mannering has been in exceptional touch to start the season, averaging 50 tackles and just one miss per game as the backbone of the Warriors' defence. Parker too has just three misses in three games this year, and with an average of 121 metres per hit out is a genuine threat with the ball as well.
What Are The Odds: You would expect the Warriors to have strong support at home but Sportsbet punters have shown interest in Brisbane in this clash. There is twice as much money on the Broncos to cause an upset, while Brisbane 1-12 is the most popular margin.
Did You Know: This weekend former Raider Matt Allwood will become the 199th player to line up for the Warriors since their inception in 1995 – that's an average of 10 club debutants per season. The Cowboys, who came into the competition at the same time as the New Zealand side, have used 254 to date.
Match Officials: Referee: Matt Cecchin. Assistant Referee: Grant Atkins. Touch Judges: Michael Wise and Clayton Sharpe. Video Referees: Bernard Sutton and Luke Patten.
The Way We See It: Both teams had big wins against poor opposition last week, but the Warriors went about it in a way which suggested they could have done it against most sides in the competition. Even without Tomkins the New Zealand side have more quality than the Broncos right now, and at home should be too good. Warriors by 8.
Sleepy's Official Pick - Warriors (-2.5)
_________________________________________________________
Sydney Roosters v Canberra Raiders
Allianz Stadium
Satruday 11pm est
Ricky Stuart brings his Raiders to Sydney for a shot at redemption against a Roosters team looking to entrench themselves as a top-two team in the NRL Telstra Premiership.
Both sides have received a shot in the arm ahead of this one with Sam Moa and Shaun Fensom being cleared of crusher tackle offenses at the NRL judiciary on Wednesday night.
The Green Machine will be further boosted by the return of star fullback Jack Wighton, who played brilliantly in the first two rounds and is back in the side earlier than expected having recovered from a fractured eye socket.
His comeback pushes Jordan Rapana back out to the wing, with Bill Tupou dropping back to NSW Cup along with Josh McCrone. Glenn Buttriss replaces McCrone on the bench.
In other personnel changes Dane Tilse and Fensom come in to the starting tem in place of Shannon Boyd and Paul Vaughan, who return to the bench.
Coach Trent Robinson has named an unchanged Roosters side with Willie Manu and Lagi Setu filling out an extended bench.
Both these teams have had interesting roads to this Sunday's meeting at Allianz.
Carrying huge expectation in 2015, the Roosters bounced back from their Round 2 loss to South Sydney before seeing off a well-drilled Panthers outfit last week.
Meanwhile, with some astute purchases over the off-season the Raiders exceeded the expectations of some with a solid start to the season.
They beat the Sharks in an impressive opening round performance before conceding two losses in increasingly disappointing circumstances.
Last Sunday's defeat to the Dragons was especially inadequate for Stuart's men, considering they faltered from 18-0 up against a team that had scored just eight points in their two previous games.
This match will also feature a few former Raiders coming up against their old teammates and ex-premiership-winning Roosters coach Ricky Stuart.
Blake Ferguson is the most notable of the pack, it will be intriguing to see the treatment the boys in green give him considering the circumstances in which he departed the club in 2013.
Watch Out Raiders: They may well have enough trouble on their hands in the opening exchanges but the battle in the middle won't be getting any easier for the Raiders pack as the game wears on. The Roosters bench was outstanding against the Panthers on Monday night. They'll be looking to continue their good form with another potent display against the men from Canberra. Dylan Napa was especially effective for the Roosters, pulling off some huge hits including a beauty on James Segeyaro that destroyed the special effects microphone the Panthers hooker was wearing for Fox Sports' Sterlo program. The Raiders will be well advised to steer clear of him in this one.
Watch Out Roosters: Raiders five-eighth Blake Austin has looked dangerous running the ball so far this year. He was a nemesis for the Dragons' defensive line early on last weekend and could cause similar problems on Sunday if the Roosters give him any space. However that would depend on the Raiders forwards winning the arm wrestle in the middle against a super-aggressive Chooks pack. We won't put that past the Green Machine who should come out firing after last week's disappointment to give club stalwart Dane Tilse a belated 200th-game celebration.
Key Match-Up: Blake Ferguson v Jarrod Croker. Croker bleeds green and is a perfect reflection of the culture of the Raiders team he has been chosen to lead. On the other side of the field Ferguson was in many ways his antithesis when he partnered Croker in the centres for the Green Machine. A flashy character on and off the pitch, it will be intriguing to see how Ferguson plays against his ex-teammates and vice-versa. If it's anything like his performance against the Panthers the Raiders should be shaking in their boots. Ferguson had two tries, three line-breaks, seven tackle breaks and 178 metres in a breakout performance that wound back the clock to his 2013 Origin year. Meanwhile Croker, who was one of the top try-scorers in the NRL last year, has had a solid start to 2015 with two line breaks and six tackle breaks against the Dragons.
History: Played 56; Roosters 31, Raiders 25. The last time they met was in Round 12 last year where the Roosters had an easy night against the Raiders, winning 26-12. Stuart said the difference between the two sides was a couple of errors at the back but in reality the Roosters took the foot off the pedal to give the Raiders a respectable score-line. They went up 18-0 early with some well-worked backline movements and never looked like losing from there.
What Are The Odds: Roosters ($1.18) v Raiders ($4.90). Hardly any support for Ricky Stuart's Raiders in the betting, with 95 per cent of all money placed in the head-to-head market going with the Roosters. The $1.72 on offer for the Roosters to win 13+ has been snapped up quickly.
Match Officials: Referee: Adam Devcich. Assistant referee: Gavin Reynolds. Touch judges: Rick MacFarlane & Adam Reid. Video referees: Ashley Klein & Ben Galea.
The Way We See It: It's hard to go past the Roosters in this one. They have superstar talent right across the park. With Blake Ferguson finding form they're a frightening prospect for the Raiders. On the other hand it's in times like these that the Green Machine have been known to play out of their skins and prove the doubters wrong. They'll go hard at the Roosters early but won't have enough in the tank to hang in their against a Tricolours team that threatens to improve as the match wears on. Roosters by 14.
Sleepy's Official Pick - Roosters (-14.5)
________________________________________________________
Writeups taken from NRL.com