Teddy Likes Arizona -11 tonight and gave no reasoning in this audio so below are his Free Play write up for the game and his Free Pick video as well.
From Teddy Covers
My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country. The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time. Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four. This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.
Xavier is no juggernaut. The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else. The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play. They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.
The Georgia State game warrants further examination here. Xavier hit 16 of 21 (76%) from two point range , 7-13 (56%) from three point range and 22-25 (88%) from the free throw line – as well as any team can possibly shoot, even against an undersized foe. Xavier held the Panthers to just 12 rebounds for the entire game. And yet they covered the spread by only a single point. If you’re not covering numbers with ease following a truly unheard of statistical profile like that, it speaks volumes about their chances moving forward.
Xavier’s Matt Stainbrook and Jalen Reynolds – their only contributing big men -- were able to dominate the point against Georgia State. The duo scored 30 points on 12-14 from the field and matched the Panthers team rebounding numbers by themselves. But neither guy is a low post behemoth, leaving them in dire straights against the rugged, physical Wildcats front line. The Arizona quartet of Stanley Johnson, Kaleb Tarczewski, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Brandon Ashley is primed to control the paint on both ends of the floor, start to finish.
The Wildcats just outrebounded a tough, physical Ohio State team by a +18 margin, on the heels of their +14 in the opening round and their +34 in the three games of the PAC-12 tournament. They’ve been consistently dominating, winning six of their last seven by 15 points or more while winning 13 straight overall. It’s surely worth noting that the Musketeers were only underdogs of +5 or higher twice this year; both times against Villanova. They lost by double digits both times and failed to cover either pointspread. There’s a class difference here that is greater than the current pointspread would indicate. Take Arizona.
College Basketball Free Picks: Xavier vs Arizona Betting
What college basketball bettors need to know about betting Xavier Musketeers vs Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament on Wednesday (3/26/15) - a free pick from Pregame.com's Teddy Covers with added insight from Steve Fezzik.