Wichita St. (-2) vs. Notre Dame 7:15 ET CBS
Wichita St. and Notre Dame travel to the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio for this Sweet 16 matchup. This is a game that features the divergent styles of 2 highly successful teams who feature a combined 9 losses between them. Wichita succeeds with a strong defensive presence and outstanding fundamentals. Notre Dame, conversely, is one of the highest scoring, most efficient offensive teams in the nation. Normally, I would side with the statistical evidence that favors Wichita St. in this game. But, situational analysis and line value give a clear edge to Notre Dame. Let’s go inside the numbers and the thinking for the analysis.
There is little to criticize about 8th year Wichita St. HC, Greg Marshall, and the outstanding success of his Wheat Shockers. In the previous 5 years, Wichita has won 25 or more games, including a Final Four appearance 2 years ago, as well as 35-0 start to last season (before losing to Kentucky in this NCAA Tournament). Marshall’s success has been built on great defense and strong fundamentals. This season, Wichita St. again qualifies as one of our Defensive Dandies. They allow just 56 PPG on 40% from the field and 34% from the arc. They have a +5.3 rebound margin and a +4.5 assist/TO ratio, committing just 9.4 TOs per game, while forcing 13.3. With veteran perimeter play of PG VanVleet, shooting guard Ron Baker and do-everything Tekele Cotton, this team has one of the best perimeters in the nation. They will certainly need it against the offensively potent, Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame was on a downer in last week’s NCAA action. They had just come off consecutive, outright underdog wins vs. Duke and N. Carolina to win the ACC Tourney crown. We give them a mulligan as they enter Sweet 16 play, after they struggled to defeat Northeastern (69-65) and Butler (67-64). But those victories give them a road/neutral record of 14-3 SU, including 4-1 ATS as road or neutral dog with outright victories at Louisville vs. Duke and twice against N. Carolina. That type of success leaves them well qualified for this matchup against highly-respected Wichita St. The Irish have superb guard play in Grant and Connaughton and arguably the best interior force on the floor in Auguste.
During the Round of 64, I introduced the concept of gap dog. This occurs in NCAA action when a team with a seed that is 3 rungs or better than their opponent is installed as an underdog. The system, comfortably over 60% for 35 years, responded with spread victories with Butler over Texas and VCU against Ohio St. With the Wichita St. win vs. Kanas last week and the Shockers’ ensuing celebration, the linemaker and public have pushed Wichita St. to a 2 point favorite. With just 4 days to prepare from that monumental win an inevitable emotional downer may occur. In that case, No. 3 seed, Notre Dame, as a 2 point underdog will clearly be the value side. Combined with a notably more difficult schedule and one of the nation’s leading offenses that averages 79 PPG on 51% shooting with 39% from the arc and 74% from the stripe, we confidently line up with Notre Dame as your pointspread winner in this Sweet 16 contest.