hey farmhouse....here are my thoughts...which I may in fact post.
No. Illinois +6.5 over Akron
I comment last week on Akron vs. Kent State, unfortunately Kent State went 1 of 4 in FTs down the stretch and failed to cover by 1.
The presence of the pick was around Akron losing both Forsythe and Robotham, their key points, steals, FT, and rebounding per game players.
Tonight Akron is back in action vs. NIU this time as favorites, Forsythe and Robotham are still out and now we can add F B.J. Gladden to that list. Gladden was sparingly used (only 9 mpg).
That said, NIU has the size to expose Akron. NIU is already 3rd in the conference in offense rebounding %, they are #1 in FTA/FGA, Akron is 10th. This is a huge statistical advantage when you pair the two together, lots of second chance points and undefended baskets. With a +6.5 on the board, I gotta take that. Add in that Akron is one of the worst FT shooting teams in the conference (61.2%) let alone the nation, ranking 296th. In their last game against Kent St, KSU went to the line 35 times. Akron C Isaiah Jonhson foulded out in 28 mintues of play and G Deji Ibitayo fouled out in 17 minutes of play. With Akron lacking some depth due to the aforementioned injuries, foul trouble could really due this team in. Akron Centers getting fouled out vs. NIU is a pretty common trend, Forsythe fouled out in the Feb 2014 meeting, Forward Kwan Cheatham Jr (now his replacement) fouled out in this match-up (played only 24 minutes), a NIU 64-61 win.
With Forsythe and Gladden out, Akron is down to McAdams, Cheatham and Johnson in the front court.
NIU is coming into this game hot 7-2 ATS last nine, they have won 4 straight, over Ball St, MAC favorites Western Michigan, Central Michigan and Toledo.
I like NIU in this spot.