Akron +3 at Kent State
Pick: Kent State -3
What a tough week for Akron, first they lose Noah Robotham and now Pat Forsythe is out.
For Akron, the loss of Noah Robotham is looming large right now. His replacement, freshman Antino Jackson, is also a very talented play, but he isn't quite on Robotham's level as far as game management goes yet.
At Miami (OH) last Tuesday, junior center Pat Forsythe played the first five, or so, minutes, and then came out for the rest of the game. He came out in the second half in his street clothes, and he was wearing a walking boot. Today, George Thomas from the Akron Beacon Journal tweeted this out: center Pat Forsythe out at least the next two games with turf toe. Table 1 gives you some sense of how important Robotham and Forsythe are.
From the table we can see that Forsythe was the team leader in points per game, FG%, rebounding and blocks. Robotham lead the team minutes, FT% (huge because Akron is one of the worst teams in the country in the FT%, 297TH ranked at 65%), assists and steals. Wow, talk about a knockout blow, offensively and defensively.
Table 1 – Akron Roster
Another factor in this current funk that the Zips are in is the lack of experience. Jake Kretzer, Reggie McAdams, and Deji Ibitayo have all won a lot of games, but they haven't been in the position of a true leader of the team. Akron is capable of winning a lot with this team, but they haven't taken it to the next level this year.
Kwan Cheatham Jr. and Isaiah Johnson will be matched up with Kent State's big men Jimmy Hall and Khaliq Spicer.
Cheatham is effectively Forsythe replacement and although he will be able to replace the rebounding Forsythe brings, his shooting numbers (FG%) are nowhere near Forsythe’s (.364 vs. .549), his offensive ranking (according to KenPom) are nowhere near Forsythe’s (92.7 vs. 106.7) and his turnover (%) is higher (21.9 % vs. 17.5%). I expect a drop-off offensively. That doesn’t help considering Kent State’s has a conference-best defensive FG% unit.
It is important to note that Hall didn't play in the first matchup, a 61-52 Akron win, because of mononucleosis. Hall is easily one of the top candidates for MAC newcomer of the year, if it existed. The 6-foot-7 power forward has made it look easy against most MAC teams. He leads Kent State with over 15 points per game and 7.3 rebounds per game.
Hall is an important piece of this Kent State team:
“We totally understand that Jimmy is a great offensive player and there’s not too many people in our league who can guard him…..When he touches the ball, I think our offense scores 60 percent of the time in the half-court and when he doesn’t touch the ball it’s maybe 33 percent…..We try to play through Jimmy. He makes plays out of the post. He’s a good passer; it’s not like he’s a ball hog. He’s strong and he’s been leading us.” Kent State G Derek Jackson said.
On Tuesday, Kent State reached its 15th 20-win season in the past 17 years. But it hasn’t made a big splash in the postseason since 2010-11, when it reached the NIT quarterfinals. It hasn’t played in the NCAA Tournament since 2007-08.
There is a sense that things could be coming together at the right time, Jackson believes that all Kent State has been through — injuries and illness and suspensions and the emotional roller coaster that has driven its coach to snack way too often — might pay off for the close-knit team.
“We know we’ve got 20 wins, but our goals and aspirations are way bigger than this,” Jackson said. This is just the start.” Perhaps it is, tonight is the final home of the season, and Kent State will be looking to avenge their earlier loss to Akron.
When you subtract Forsythe and Robotham for Akron and the inherent chemistry issues that can bring (note: Akron blew an 11 point 2nd half lead to Miami, OH, as Forsythe sat), then add, Hall, home court and sprinkling in the Kent State’s conference-best defensive FG% unit, I can see value on Kent State -3 this evening.
Give me Kent State -3.