VCU +3 at Davidson
Pick: Davidson -3
Davidson can climb back into a tie for first place in the Atlantic 10 by beating VCU at home this evening.
The key ingredient to defeating VCU is to withstand their frenetic, harassing style of defensive play. VCU’s objective is to increase the tempo of the game and force their opponents in making bad passes, bad shots, and bad decisions all of which cause turnovers (in my opinion a forced shot or in other words a bad shot, is just another form of a turnover). VCU’s pressing defense creates a league-high 16.6 per game. Those turnover facilitate an offense that moves the ball around (12.9 assists per game), while shooting 3-pointers often (sinking 8.1 per game) and fairly accurately (shooting at a 33.8-percent clip). Put together, force the turnovers and then frustrate the opposing defense by moving the ball around, call it a death by a 1000 knifes.
Davidson head coach Bob McKillop says it best:
“(VCU forces) you into making decisions, they instigate, rather than retaliate.” -
However (and here’s where the premise of investment lies), Davidson is well suited to handle VCU press defense. Davidson counters with an up-tempo offense that is centered on solid decision-making, with excellent ball handlers and shooters. Davidson leads the A-10 in assist-turnover ratio (1.7), with guards Tyler Kalinoski (2.6) and Brian Sullivan (2.5) ranked 1-2 in the league individually. Davidson also averages a league-low 9.6 turnovers.
VCU coach Shaka Smart on Davidson’s offense.
“Guarding them is a challenge on every possession. You have to stay on edge, as we say, and be alert because they do a good job of making you pay if you’re not. They shoot the ball well from so many different positions, so that opens it up for them with other options. And an underrated thing about them is they play with a level of physicality.”
Yes, VCU did defeat Davidson 71-65 back in January but that when VCU point guard Briante Weber was available, he will not be this evening. How important is Weber to VCU’s press defense, well consider this, he was on pace to break the NCAA’s all-time steals record before suffering a season-ending knee injury on Jan. 31. Moreover, since his absence VCU has gone 4-5 and has lost two in a row to drop into fourth place in the league.
This is a huge revenge game for Davidson; more fitting it will be in front of a sell-out crowd on senior night in front of the ESPU cameras. Taking from David Malinsky’s Point Blank column this morning
“Most of the bracket projections out there have VCU in the field, despite being unworthy without Weber, and Davidson just on the outside looking in. That makes this a major showcase game for the Wildcats”
The public may be in love with VCU but I feel the revenge, match-ups and NCAA tourney implications hold a lot of value on Davidson, particular at -3. I also like a team that shoots over 72% from the FT line (Davidson) vs. a team that shoots just below 64% (VCU), in a tightly played game like this could be, that favors Davidson) I like the value. Give me Davidson -3. I