I could be laughably wrong here, but I think FGCU is about to take Jacksonville to the woodshed. FGCU is favored by 12.5, and despite FGCU's name recognition, I feel like this line is low. Every power rating I can find says FGCU -12.5 is the play except for the Dunkel Index. I think this is a small conference line we can take advantage of here.
FGCU has lost their last 2 games. They lost to North Florida at home 76-62 and to this same Jacksonville team on the road 75-67. It appears as if North Florida just has FGCU's number this year, so that's fine. But let's look at that Jacksonville game FGCU just lost. They were coming off the loss to UNF which was essentially for the reg. season A-Sun title. The A-Sun tournament is one where the higher seeded team gets the homecourt for the games in the tourney. So they were probably disappointed here. Jacksonville on the other hand is 4-10 in conference and they simply aren't very good. WHy did they beat FGCU? FGCU had clinched the #2 seed, couldnt move up or down. Jacksonville had its senior day vs FGCU and nothing gets an A-Sun team excited like seeing DUnk City come to town. Jacksonville had all the motivation and FGCU had none.
But this game is different IMO. Jacksonville's season pretty much ended on 2/28/15 the day FGCU's began. FGCU's is still pissed off from losing the spot in the big dance to Mercer at home last year. FGCU's stumbling around and the start of the A-Sun tourney is just the thing they need to get the intensity back. The last time FGCU played Jacksonville at home? They won 79-50...29 points!
I feel like I get a team that's 15-16 points better than J-Ville when playing in Dunk City, I get the team looking for revenge on J-Ville, and I get the team that's on a mission to prove that they deserve the automatic bid. Their journey starts tonight, and I'm gonna back them.
I'd hate for someone to read this thread and bet on FGCU because of this thread, and then it turns out that I'm 100% wrong. Like I said, I could be completely wrong. But damn, I love this game so much.