A free play of the day is given out each day on Pregame.com’s FIRST PREVIEW
Tonight Dave likes Ill-Chicago +8 over Wisc- Milwaukee
He doesn't give analysis on the show, so here is his free pick analysis that he posted earlier.
The later the season gets, the more reliable are the power ratings for each college basketball team. Obviously there will be some exceptions. But by and large, if you're operating with a good set of rankings, your number and the actual betting line are going to mostly very similar.
But that doesn't mean these numbers are of no use. I'll share a theory I've used to churn out more winners than losers over the past several seasons. It's really pretty simple. Find a team that's outside the top 200 and is laying a bunch of points and you'll do pretty well grabbing those points with what will be an even uglier dog.
The rationale here is pretty logical. While it might not be easy to plunk down a wager on a terrible team, it's really not that tough to take big points against another stiff. Teams outside the top 200 are not good. The idea that they not only have to win, but also have to do so by a substantial margin is tough to swallow. I'd rather take my chances getting a batch of points with the weak dog. Also note that these are going to be the games where that ugly dog will probably feel like they have an actual chance to win, which makes the proposition even more attractive.
Case in point tonight, UIC at Milwaukee. The visiting Flames are downright terrible. Aside from being adept at knocking down free throws, there's not much they do well. But Milwaukee is no bargain, either. The Panthers are 7-14, with a 2-5 league slate and there's a bit of a potential bonus here as well.
Milwaukee has nothing to play for. They're not eligible for any post-season action this season. They've occasionally come out focused, but there have also been several games where one can just tell the intensity isn't there. I think this game could well fall into that latter category.
UIC is generally going to have little chance of winning in a pretty good Horizon league. They just don't have the talent on hand to win many games. But this is a gam where they're not physically overwhelmed and I would certainly expect the Flames to arrive here feeling they have a legit opportunity for a win. With heavily favored UIC a team that is clearly outside that top 200, I like the idea of grabbing a big number this time. I'll side with Illinois-Chicago plus the points.
(UPDATE) He will be playing this 1H and FG, splitting one unit. +4/+8