Re: Western Kentucky-Houston-Total

This line came out at WKY -1. My initial number was -5. Awful early to use bet percentage but 88% of the small number is on Western Kentucky. I've got a tight time-wise day, but there is some real value on one side and hopefully I'll be able to write a thesis this afternoon. If anyone has any input before I get back---it's always welcome and appreciated. Thanks---Dave....

In spite of the trend, I have a lean to Houston AND the over. This is and out-of-conference matchup, which is odd for this time in the season. Which team will me more motivated? Both teams have been on a serious slide, but Houston has played the much more difficult schedule, and I truly believe that people are laying WKY based on their reputation over the recent past.

Houston does not turn the ball over and is 5th in steal percentage.

Houston beat WKY at HST last year in their only meeting in recent history, but it was in the very first game of the year. I am not much into the revenge angle (I don't ignore it) because I think often times it can work against a team---and for the team that won the previous meeting, knowing they CAN win. In that game last year WKY had a 9 point halftime lead (at HST) and Houston outscored them by 19 in the second half. WKY had twice as many turnovers (remember HST number one in steals this year). WKY shot 11-24 from behind the arc (46%).  WKY out-rebounded Houston and had more assists---and STILL lost.

Houston is a bit of an enigma----beating good teams like UTEP and Marshall, and losing to the likes of Cenral Florida. Houston is a different team away from home. Their only road wins are at Rice and East Carolina, both bad teams.

Western Kentucky has all their wins at home---only road win was South Alabama (#233). So what to expect. Well, I will take the OVER the total right now, as I expect niether team to play much defense and the game to be very up-tempo.

I check back later to see if Houston can actually get a road win-----remember, WKY has reputation with bettors and Houston has played a signigicantly better SOS. This could easily be a trap game.

I am adding Bradley to the play list. Less than two weeks ago Bradley got pounded by 19 at Illinois State. In that game Bradley (who normally shoot 36% from deep, shot 23% and were held to 28% FG. Now, Illinois State's defense is simply not that good. Normally Bradley has very balanced offensive production (three starters averaging double digits). Bradley at home is MVC games is shooting 47%.

Illinois State has only won once on the road in conference play, and that was against a pretty bad Evansville team! In fact, other than an early win at Utah, it is their only road win.

Bradley is sure not the team they were, but there SOS is signficanlty stronger than Illinois State's. (116-243). Given the quick opportunity for payback and the fact that Bradley is simply a much better team, laying less than a possesion is a gift, IMO.

Take Bradley -1

good stuff buddy, i love the work you put in.

The more you post and the more info you put out, the quicker people realize just how sharp you are!

Mike Hook

good stuff buddy, i love the work you put in.

The more you post and the more info you put out, the quicker people realize just how sharp you are!

Thanks Mike.  You know I'd do a lot more if I had time. Today I had a little back surgery so I've got plenty! As far as other people realizing any value I may add----well, I can't control what other people think or how they react---here, at my business, or even my freaking wife at the moment--who will not let me get up from this chair. Sometimes, that would be a good problem to have!!!!

I'm going to add another possible play. Evansville. Yes, against Witchita State. Lots of slips on WS but zero line movement, and the total has come downsignificantly, to 128. Going to look further---that's usually how I find games I want to look at--early money.

Not sure I'm following your logic. I had 127.5 earlier and now I show 128.5 which mine went up. I love your plays and capping just not sure what you mean by the line going down. Unless you had 128.5 also and it's now down to 128. Do you like the O or U or just playing Evansville. You;ve been right on and don't want to cross you. Thx 

Actually Bradley was posted as -1 above but I have them getting 1.5 points.