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NHL *Away Favorites* System - YTD 23-21 -3.35

Thread Starter NHL *Away Favorites* System - YTD 23-21 -3.35
LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

So I am going to track an away favorites system this NHL season. I will be basing it off $100 bets.

YTD:   23-21 | -$335

 

10/13 - Montreal Canadiens -130 (W), 10/15 - San Jose Sharks -130 (W), 10/16 - Carolina Hurricanes -125 (L), 10/16 - San Jose Sharks -125 (L), 10/20 - Washington Capitals -125 (W), 10/21 - Chicago Blackhawks -120 (L), 10/21 - Nashville Predators -125 (L), 10/22 - Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (W), 10/22 - St. Louis Blues -125 (W), 10/25 - Minnesota Wild -120 (W), 10/25 - Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (W), 10/26 - Washington Capitals -130 (L), 10/26 - Nashville Predators -120 (L), 10/27 - Florida Panthers -120 (L), 10/27 - Minnesota Wild -140 (W), 10/28 - New York Rangers -130 (X), 10/28 - Edmonton Oilers -120 (W),  10/28 - Chicago Blackhawks -140 (W), 10/29 - Pittsburgh Pens -125 (W), 10/29 - Tampa Bay Lightning -140 (W), 10/29 - Florida Panthers -140 (L), 10/30 - Washington Capitals -120 (W), 11/2 - Pittsburgh Penguins -120 (W), 11/3 - Nashville Predators -145 (L), 11/3 - Pittsburgh Penguins -115 (L), 11/9 - Anahiem Ducks -120 (L), 11/10 - San Jose Sharks -125 (W), 11/10 - Winnipeg Jets -115 (W), 11/11 - Washington Capitals -125 (W), 11/12 - St Louis Blues -135 (L), 11/12 - New York Rangers -125 (W), 11/13 - Dalls Stars -130 (L), 11/14 - Tampa Bay Lightning -125 (W), 11/15 - Washington Capitals -135 (L), 11/15 - Tampa Bay Lightning -115 (W), 11/15 - Nashville Predators -115 (L), 11/15 - Chicago Blackhawks -120 (L), 11/15 - San Jose Sharks -140 (L), 11/15 - Los Angeles Kings -125 (L), 11/16 - Pittsburgh Penguins -120 (L), 11/17 - Tampa Bay Lightning -130 (W), 11/18 - New York Rangers -125 (L), 11/25 - New York Rangers -145 (W), 12/1 - LA Kings -145 (W), 12/6 - Edmonton Oilers -120 (L)

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

shipit757
Joined: 03/06/2014
Posts: 275
College Varsity
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So, just away favorites between -115 and -140??  That's it??

stelly18
Joined: 06/02/2015
Posts: 153
College Recruit
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Looking forward to seeing the results!

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

That's it, I will keep you all posted on how it does.

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

The reason I feel it works is because people over value being home in the NHL.

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

stelly18

Looking forward to seeing the results!

Thanks Stelly, I am as well.

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

10/14

No System Plays Today | 1-0 (+$100)

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

shivaseven
Joined: 11/29/2011
Posts: 1518
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Ran the numbers through a database and came up with the following:

SU: 565-437 (0.33, 56.4%)  ROI: -0.4%

AF and -115>=close line>=-140

Might want to add a couple of more angles into your system to isolate the winners.

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

What system? Mine is showing since 2012 -

SU: 276-178 (0.50, 60.8%)  

avg line: -125.8 / 114.6  

on / against: +$5,097 / -$7,082  

ROI: +8.9% / -15.6%

OU: 186-208-60 (0.10, 47.2%)

avg total: 5.3

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

LukeV
Joined: 02/18/2014
Posts: 675
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Today the play is the San Jose Sharks -130

ALL VALUE is in opposition to the common intuition of market participants, the stronger their belief, the bigger the edge, the larger the herd, the bigger the edge. 

 

A GOOD BET IS A BET MADE WITH A KNOWN EDGE, NOT A BET THAT WINS.

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