VWG,
I just came across this article and thought you might help
Goaltending:
As important as the quarterback is in football, the striker is in
soccer, or the pitcher is in baseball, the goaltender is the most
important position in hockey for betting purposes. All teams can win if
their offensive players have an off night but few teams can overcome bad
goaltending. Consequently, teams like New Jersey and Buffalo have been
playing well this year in spite of the fact that their offensive players
aren't among the best in the league. Martin Brodeur and Ryan Miller
have almost single-handedly won many games for their respective teams
and not surprisingly are the league leaders in goals against average and
shots on net.
When they don't play, however, it's different. When Martin Brodeur
was injured last year New Jersey struggled and when Ryan Miller hasn't
played for Buffalo this year the team have been lucky to go 3-3.
Consequently, if a bettor can determine when there is a mismatch in
goaltending and, more importantly, when a goaltender won't start, they
have a huge advantage over the other bettors.
The best place to find information on when a goalie won't start is
the newspapers, sports radio stations, and blogs from team sites. More
often than not the local news will announce that a goalie will be
sitting out a game long before it hits the national news, which will
naturally move the line. However, there are often situations where one
can suspect a team may not start their primary goalie, which gives an
advantage over everyone. These 3 situations often result in a backup
goalie starting:
1. A team is playing the 3rd game of a road trip on short rest. In
most situations, a visiting team will want to rest a goalie and stats
have shown that many teams will not play a goalie for 3 consecutive
games on the road within a week. The reasoning for this is unclear but
my research showed that in almost 40% of games last year in that
situation, the visiting team started the backup.
2. The team is playing a very weak opponent in a road game. This
strategy is prevalent particularly during a stint where the team has
many games scheduled over a month. At some point the main goalie needs a
rest and most teams will choose to do so in games where they believe
the goaltending won't make a huge difference and ideally on the road as
they don't want to disappoint the home town fans.
3. The team's primary goaltender is injured or sick. A caveat to this
one of course is that it can be a major injury or the player will be on
the injured list and the lines will be adjusted accordingly. However,
there are times during which a goalie will have the flu or food
poisoning or will be suffering from an uncomfortable minor injury that
will likely keep him out. Those closest to the team such as sports
writers, bloggers, and newscasters from local media will often divulge
these situations. Needless to say if one can get that info before it
hits the major news, they have an advantage over other bettors.
Streaks:
Of all the sports, hockey tends to have the most streaks. The
reasoning for this isn't certain but when teams are hot in hockey they
tend to play well for a long time and if they are cold they can be ice
cold (pardon the pun). Records of 9-1 or 10-0 in the last 10 or 2-8 or
1-9 in the last 10 games are very common. Determining when a team is in
the midst of a hot or cold streak and more importantly when they are
coming out of it isn't all that easy to predict but there are signs.
Here are some hot streak indicators aside from record:
1. The team's 1st line is scoring at least 50% of the goals. When a
team is playing their best, the top line produces. Usually if the top
line can score 50% of the goals in a game it's an indication that they
are healthy and playing at their best. If the team has to start relying
on their secondary lines, it's inevitable the team will struggle.
2. Teams are getting less than 20 shots per game on average. Goalie
performance is essential to streaks but most often a hot streak
indicates the defense is playing well also. No goalie can sustain 30 or
more shots per game so if you notice teams are unable to generate shots
on a goaltender it's a sign that the team's defense is playing
exceptionally and that will result in long streaks.
3. Teams appear to be having fun. Again, to determine this, one must
look at newscasts and online sites but it's easy to tell when a team is
loose and enjoying themselves which naturally equates to wins.
There are also some cold streak indicators aside from record:
1. Teams are upset and bickering. Ironically this could be a great
indication that a team is about to come out of a hot streak or go into a
cold streak. When teams are unhappy they play poorly and it isn't
uncommon to see teams playing well who all of a sudden start snapping in
newscasts or players start complaining about ice time. A disgruntled
team will invariably fall apart. Earlier this year Philadelphia was in
the midst of a horrible streak and watching newscasts it was easy to see
the team was discontented. One day their coach called them together and
the attitudes in the newscast seemed to change. It appeared the meeting
alleviated the poor attitude and almost immediately Philadelphia became
the hottest team in the league. Emotions are a major factor in success.
2. Top line is not the highest scoring line in most games. Simply
put, the top line gets most of the ice time and is expected to produce.
If they have trouble scoring and the team relies on other lines, the
team will not play well. Until the top line starts producing goals,
continue to oppose the team.
3. The save percentage of the goaltenders is under .900. If goalies
have trouble stopping 90% of the shots they face, the team will almost
always lose. It's easy to tell when a goaltender is cold because he'll
be letting in more than 10% of the shots and when that happens bet
heavily against the team when it is clearly a streak.
Value and playable lines:
Winning bettors always look for value and like any sport will set
what they deem a fair line. If the line is far off what they deem is
value they will bet the other side. Of course it's also important to
determine why the line is off. If a starting goalie isn't playing, if
there's an undisclosed injury, if the flu bug is going around the
dressing room, the line needs to be adjusted.
Talking to many winning NHL sports bettors, one thing they all seem
to say is that if a line is "unplayable", they will pass on the game
even if it presents value. Asked to define unplayable, there seem to be 3
features:
1. A money line of 1.3 (-333) or less. Because there are 82 games in
an NHL season, one game will not make or break the season. Obviously a
single game is less important than a football game since an NFL season
is only 16 games. Consequently, hockey bettors have told me if they have
to lay 1/3 or more for a single game they would rather pass than take
the chance. Also, as mentioned earlier, a game with a money line that
low will often result in the favorite playing a backup goaltender.
2. A game where both teams have multiple injuries or players to "be
decided at game time". One thing winning bettors hate most is
uncertainty and if they can't know for sure who will be playing they
believe it's better just to pass on the game.
3. A game where a team is on a winning streak but at the end of a
long road trip. I've been told by at least 3 big winning bettors that
they will never oppose a team during a hot streak but at the end of a
road trip teams just want to get home and often throw in a stinker.
Rather than guessing which way the team will play, they just pass on the
game.
Most NHL bettors also tell me they avoid the puck line like the
plague. Far too many games finish within one goal so laying 1.5 goals is
just too risky regardless of the team. Similarly, taking 1.5 goals on a
team that isn't totally awful usually results in the money line of less
than 1.3 (-333) which makes the game unplayable.
As for totals, most bettors have indicated that they will not play
the under in a game with a total of 5 or less or the over in a game with
a total of 6.5 or more. Most games fall in the 5-6 goal range and their
belief is if you have to take less than 5 or more than 7, it isn't
worth the risk regardless of how many goals they believe will be scored.
Importance of Games:
Like any sport, teams tend to step up more when games are important,
while other teams tend to relax. If a team is locked into a playoff spot
near the end of the season and are facing a team that must win to make
it into the playoffs, taking the team that needs the win almost always
results in a winning value play. Similarly, when a team is near the
bottom of the standings and is playing a better team regardless of their
situation at the end of the season, the team with the better record is
always a value play as the lower ranked team is often trying for the
higher draft pick. Winning NHL bettors always know where both teams
stand and will play the team that wants the win more.