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Now what? Handicapper roulette?

Thread Starter Now what? Handicapper roulette?
JoeD
Joined: 12/30/2011
Posts: 364
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After a fairly public beating in late April....-24.9 units in two weeks from a Pregame handicapper...I took a month off to regroup. 

For some reason....probably because Johnny D put out some good offers and I'm a sucker for perceived value.....I bought into another Pregame handicapper at the end of May for the rest of the year and that handicapper is -24.38 units since the first of June.

Not complaining, not pointing fingers.......just asking the community........wtf should I do next?

Abandon the pay for plays routine and go at this on my own?

Stick with this guy and hope that he can turn it around?

Abandon this guy and latch on to another handicapper?

Become a card player?

Forget that I have 597 rewards points and realize that I'll never get come out of this in the black?

Seriously, I have no idea what to do next. Am I just a sucker? Do any of these guys win? If these guys do win, how come I have never ever had a winning week with a Pregame handicapper?

I will be completely transparent with any question, any time frame, any situation. I have nothing to hide, nothing to gain, nothing to lose.....it's all just one long story made up of what seems to be the same chapter over and over again.

Here's an example........Dr. Ed just had arguably the worst 3 days of his Pregame career......you look it up, I'm not here to sling mud.......so is this the right time to jump on Dr. Ed for a week? He has to bounce back, right? Believe it or not, I was not actually along for the downswing, so why not jump on board for the upswing? He can't possibly have another three days like the last three, right?

This is how it's been going lately. My guy is a steady loser and I keep waiting for the upswing. I wake up each morning and think about the handicapper roulette strategy. Seriously, Dr. Ed has to bounce back, right? Right? 

I don't take things personally on here. If you think I'm an idiot for doing the same things day after day and expecting a different result,  and should just quit gambling......let it fly. Thanks in advance. If you think I should bet fewer games, only play my guys top picks, and play them for more money......just say so. If I should lay low, follow one pitcher for a month, wait until he's tired as hell, and then fade him for one unit.....bring it on. 

Is this desperation? I'm handling my bankroll, thankfully that's intact, but more than anything I guess this is about being a loser. I hate it. I hate losing, I hate being a loser, and I hate making losing plays. It just feels awful. 

Thanks for listening. Thanks in advance for your respected opinions.

Best wishes for picking winners - 

Joe D

Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 3195
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Top 200 Contributor

Gambling CAN run in cycles.  I am up 62 units ytd, and during that run went 0-10 ATS on Friday March Madness Leans, AND during May I lost 25 units this year.  The Swings can be BRUTAL.

Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 3195
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Top 200 Contributor

A great tool is to compare how your bets are doing vs. the closing lines.......they don't all have to beat the closing lines certainly, but a good amount should, iif your bets aren't any better than what the closing lines are on average, you likely are not going to win..............(I'm sure some will disagree with me, and there ARE key teams the public is betting the wrong side, but I will stand by my statement).

PickNinja
Joined: 05/20/2014
Posts: 3404
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Stop PAYING for picks, plenty of free cappers here to tail that are crushing it

lrcredneck85
Joined: 12/05/2012
Posts: 7239
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i remember your post in april regarding this.

at some point in this the gamble is less about the games and what move you make on paid plays.

I don't purchase plays, so my best advice is to

1.  figure out how much into it (what you paid, not what you lost) and how much access you have left.  if you have the rest of the season with him, well then that is money spent so you might as well hold off on playing until and if your guy gets on a hit streak.

2.  trying to jump on a new capper at a high or low point you have no doubt assessed the risk.  I personally wouldn't look to make any more purchases at your expense until you are certain things are going the right direction.

3.  there still plenty of good guys giving out free plays (not me, ive had my ass handed to me since Friday)  I think at this point you have to take on some of the responsibility and shoulder the weight if decide you want to continue to wager.  start going through the free plays, start tracking guys on here in the streaks page, and do the homework on who is hot.

when the ship is sinking everyone gets paralyzed on whether to jump early or late, but in the end your still going to get wet.  I wish you good luck on whatever decision you make

jeff232323
Joined: 03/13/2011
Posts: 450
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Don't buy picks here over the long term you wont win with juice and fees you pay!

JoeD
Joined: 12/30/2011
Posts: 364
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I hear you Steve...and really appreciate you coming in this thread to share your wisdom. Thanks.

Here's the deal, and I don't think I'm the least bit unique......I have one out. I have an offshore account with a local. I'm not on twitter, not always by my computer or phone, and can't always wait for lines to adjust. My guy puts out a play and I play it. I rarely get his numbers, and I never go back and compare. That's just the way it is...and my guess is that this is pretty normal for most recreational bettors. I would love to shop lines, be able to wait for the best numbers, or survey the market before I place a bet....but that's just not part of my plan.

After being on here for years, I think it's safe to assume that you would not approve of that scenario and suggest going with the card player option. Well, I like the action, I would like to think that paying for picks gives me an edge, and while I concur with your game plans.......I don't think the equity I'm giving up should result in being down close to 50 units in the last two months.

Steve, I would love to be one of your clients, but I get the feeling my schedule and business model would not be a fit.

I do appreciate you coming in here, thanks again -

Joe D

mjkluger
Joined: 07/14/2014
Posts: 43
Practice Squad
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JoeD

Here's an example........Dr. Ed just had arguably the worst 3 days of his Pregame career......you look it up, I'm not here to sling mud.......so is this the right time to jump on Dr. Ed for a week? He has to bounce back, right? He can't possibly have another three days like the last three, right?

He's unlikely to have three more days like the last three, but that doesn't mean that the next three days or the next 7 days or the next month or the next year will be profitable. Maybe he'll go 50-50. It's possible that he isn't betting with edge and isn't winning. The same might be true of other cappers here, but impossible to say without records, which aren't available.

deliveryman3
Joined: 02/26/2007
Posts: 22360
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if u had a BR and it was 100 units then u have lost half of it already.unless u know the guy has won in bases over the yrs I would bail and go another rte......even quit til FB to clear your head and regroup. at that point u need a plan, your own picks, tail some in forum or purchase again. if you have dedicated money for gambling then stick to plan ,ride it out and se what happens. would not purchase anywhere until u do some homework on your considerations and if small bettor then don't buy as cost increases your break even too much.....any pro that's honest wil agree with that and not a slap at anyone......good luck

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB12088257.692214.00
MLB304379244.51-1271.00
NBA144119354.751304.00
NFL8372853.55-2.00
JoeD
Joined: 12/30/2011
Posts: 364
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Neck, you're a good guy and I appreciate the feedback. And you're right on all accounts.

Pretty sure it's time to hunker down and spend more time doing my own work. That will mean less plays and much less action, but my current situation is awful and it's time for a change.

I also agree that the handicapper roulette strategy is just not prudent. You're right, trying to predict when a guy will turn it around is just another recipe for failure.

With appreciation -

Joe D

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