Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

Hello Again

Hello Again
Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5254
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

It's a non-scientific result but I swear Team Toofdoc seemed to always win the games when our best plays caught crappy lines on key numbers +2.5 when 3's were available and we would always get smoked when we got a favorable hook.  I promise a +7.5 was a death sentence it seemed.  

Did he just track them for last year?

That EOG thread was from 2011 and it stopped in September

Darts: 1-1-0 0 units

Avatar bets with Faultless 0-3 it's getting ugly

Failed the Fezzik Challenge

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5388
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

Toofdoc

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

It's a non-scientific result but I swear Team Toofdoc seemed to always win the games when our best plays caught crappy lines on key numbers +2.5 when 3's were available and we would always get smoked when we got a favorable hook.  I promise a +7.5 was a death sentence it seemed.  

Did he just track them for last year?

That EOG thread was from 2011 and it stopped in September

Ah, well you could never convince me to take +2.5 when +3 is out there.  We'd have relationship issues

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5254
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

It's a non-scientific result but I swear Team Toofdoc seemed to always win the games when our best plays caught crappy lines on key numbers +2.5 when 3's were available and we would always get smoked when we got a favorable hook.  I promise a +7.5 was a death sentence it seemed.  

Did he just track them for last year?

That EOG thread was from 2011 and it stopped in September

Ah, well you could never convince me to take +2.5 when +3 is out there.  We'd have relationship issues

Contest mode is different than Grind it out mode.   We had to make 5 plays each week and if that was one of either of our top plays there had to be other reasons to come off of it.

Darts: 1-1-0 0 units

Avatar bets with Faultless 0-3 it's getting ugly

Failed the Fezzik Challenge

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5388
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

Toofdoc

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Lloyd Christmas

Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

It's a non-scientific result but I swear Team Toofdoc seemed to always win the games when our best plays caught crappy lines on key numbers +2.5 when 3's were available and we would always get smoked when we got a favorable hook.  I promise a +7.5 was a death sentence it seemed.  

Did he just track them for last year?

That EOG thread was from 2011 and it stopped in September

Ah, well you could never convince me to take +2.5 when +3 is out there.  We'd have relationship issues

Contest mode is different than Grind it out mode.   We had to make 5 plays each week and if that was one of either of our top plays there had to be other reasons to come off of it.

Game theory, good point.  I faced the same tough decisions last year playing for $1,000 and a Sports Options subscription in the EOG contest.

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1561
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

I get the feeling people just disagree with me for the sake of disagreeing with me now.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB91106246.19300.00
Stella bay
Joined: 10/19/2013
Posts: 121
Prep School
Not Ranked

Shay seem like good guy but type of beautiful mind style in the bar sense.

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1561
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Just to clear a few things up

1) I've no idea if the LVH contest is +EV or not but my insticnt lead me to believe it if if you're using optimum strategy and game theory

2) I'm not changing my outlook by looking to enetr a contest based on opinion because its not really opinion. I would consult with people who have knowledge on NFL and factor in what way I think the lines are moving to make my plays. I wouldn't make a pick because I 'fancy' a side

3) A question: Lets say that every week if you grade each line on the LVH sheet in order of far it beat closer how many enteries would you think would have the top 5? Again I've no idea the answer to this question but if you could get as many of these amongst you entries then you'd have a theoretical edge over a chunk of the field.

I've no problem with being proved wrong on any of the above as I wouldn't be looking to discuss this if I knew the answers!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB91106246.19300.00
Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5388
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

ShayMonue

Just to clear a few things up

1) I've no idea if the LVH contest is +EV or not but my insticnt lead me to believe it if if you're using optimum strategy and game theory

2) I'm not changing my outlook by looking to enetr a contest based on opinion because its not really opinion. I would consult with people who have knowledge on NFL and factor in what way I think the lines are moving to make my plays. I wouldn't make a pick because I 'fancy' a side

3) A question: Lets say that every week if you grade each line on the LVH sheet in order of far it beat closer how many enteries would you think would have the top 5? Again I've no idea the answer to this question but if you could get as many of these amongst you entries then you'd have a theoretical edge over a chunk of the field.

I've no problem with being proved wrong on any of the above as I wouldn't be looking to discuss this if I knew the answers!

Ha, I promise I'm not disagreeing with you just to disagree.  #3 is a very good point 

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
Posts: 5254
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

The problem is your method may be profitable but even if it hits at a 55% rate you win ZERO in the contest

Darts: 1-1-0 0 units

Avatar bets with Faultless 0-3 it's getting ugly

Failed the Fezzik Challenge

Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
Posts: 5388
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

Yes but theoretically if you select 53% sides as opposed to 50%, you still need a lot of variance to go your way, but you have a 3% head start

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Rate This
  • 250 replies
  • 10 subscribers
  • Posted1 month ago