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Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
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ShayMonue

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines. 

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Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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I could be wrong but I believe the NFL is the only US sport where public money outweighs professional money.  It's extremely rare to see the number on a very public, heavily backed team to not go up on game day.  The is magnified even more on Sunday and Monday night.

It's not as bad with the sharper or middle of the road books, but the very square shops like SIA and Sportsbook just take off when those high profile teams are playing.  It's not at all uncommon to see

CRIS

Bills +7 -115

Pats -7 -105

Sportsbook

Bills +7 +105

Pats -7 -125

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Lloyd Christmas
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ShayMonue

That just does not happen over here. The lines will move sync with the exchanges and solid book more times then not. You'll find the odds bad number but very view. Any sportsbook manager moving lines on public money should be sacked!

Just playing devils advocate here.  If you know your clientele doesn't know the difference, and you have a 50/50 proposition, wouldn't you rather have +125 on the side you are exposed on and -105 on the other as opposed to +110/+110?

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
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ShayMonue

Toofdoc

ShayMonue

Probably a discussion for a different thread but it would horrify me to think that public money moves lines.

I can't think of valid argument that would suggest the public doesn't move lines. 

Over here you could take a million on one side and move the line the other way. Liabilities are never factored into the line.

I thought you bet the market? The market is all the people betting and since less than 5% can win consistently I would say the "public" moves the market. If you think a sports book is going to just keep taking one sided action then you are not thinking clearly.  Even the "sharps" only hit at a 55% clip so the book would still have a 45% chance of losing.

I think the real sharps are the ones who set the opening lines and expose the books to millions and do a pretty good job. The "sharps" see the line is moving and jump on at a stale book at the opener and that # becomes more valuable the farther the closer moves away......that's where the math stops.   You've let the public add value to your position that was close to a 50/50 shot to begin with.

I think there are so many "line move followers" now that the lines get pushed by the "public sharp followers" and the books know they can manipulate the betting pattern by creating a perceived "sharp" move.  I would still be interested in seeing if comptrbob tracked the results of using the stalest lines for the contest

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shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
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I would still be interested in seeing if comptrbob tracked the results of using the stalest lines for the contest

I think he did? I will look for it tonight.

DMC

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
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We definitely need more legit competition over here!  

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Lloyd Christmas
Joined: 07/22/2009
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Interesting, it seems that people over there are just light years ahead in terms of being price conscious.  A big reason why casual bettors here are not is the hassle in opening accounts and moving money around.  Can you imagine if you had to drive to the market every time you wanted to send or receive money?  Or if you didn't want to do that you had to wait anywhere from 1-6 weeks for a check?  People who take it seriously will go through the hassle, most will not.  They're will to take bad numbers in exchange for convenience 

You want a handicapping tip?  Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more.  I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice 

"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"

ComptrBob
Joined: 08/20/2013
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Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

I'll post an update to my 2011 thread about modeling the LVH SuperContest. Last year the overall record was the worst in 10 years so the % of "dead money" entrants seems to have increased.

Stay tuned.

Toofdoc
Joined: 02/01/2011
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thanks Bob

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kwc2000
Joined: 01/28/2012
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ComptrBob

Toofdoc

Can someone put a bug in ComptrBob's ear and see if he ever finished tracking the results of taking the stale lines?  

I'll post an update to my 2011 thread about modeling the LVH SuperContest. Last year the overall record was the worst in 10 years so the % of "dead money" entrants seems to have increased.

Stay tuned.

Also think its due to the fact that the NFL is as unpredictable as ever

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