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Fooled by Randomness - A monkeys expected win rate.

Thread Starter Fooled by Randomness - A monkeys expected win rate.
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

I'm not a sports handicapper, in fact I know very little about US sports. However I do know about markets and market efficiency. I believe that someone betting randomly into strong/liquidity-high lines is expected to win no more or less then 5%. I don't understand how some handicappers suggest waiting for the game off to back dogs because 'public' money drives up the line. Is there any data anywhere that proves that games involving the highest levels of 'public' money have inefficient lines at game off? I can't believe this is true because money drives markets and money has no conscience and is not sharp or square near game off because all the information is out there at this stage. The early lines are soft and contain value because their are still many variables between opening lines and game time. 

I'm going to be making picks on my account here by purely referencing the exchange (a European betting exchange which is a close guide to the 100% book on any sport). By doing so I'll be picking the side of a line that gives me the least negative expected value and will show that I will at worst over a big sample do no better or worse than a handicapper putting in hours and hours of needless research when the market already tells you what you need to know. 

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

This monkey is now 12-8 (60%) without knowing the first thing about US Sports.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
lrcredneck85
Joined: 12/05/2012
Posts: 6010
All Pro
Top 100 Contributor

Good luck, id like to see how this does over a 2 week span.  do you have a set number of plays per day or is it just anything that qualifies by a certain market percentage?

With summer in full swing, the prospect of keeping updated records at this point is mute.  Apologies, I just don't have time

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

4-6 yesterday takes me to 21-16 (56.75%).

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
Posts: 2828
All Pro
Top 200 Contributor

Bump

Gangster dolphins
Marine biologists studying Australian dolphins discovered that the mammals form complex hierarchies within their pods in order to attack other groups. Some individuals serve as fighters. Others serve as liaisons to go out and recruit new members. These "intricate webs" are rare in the animal kingdom, says Virginia Morell at Wired, and strikingly reminiscent of "the Mafia."

I blame Snoop Dog.

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself” WinstonChurchill

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

18-12 going into tonight where I've made 7 picks. None of them are particularly good bets rather they are all roughly break even bets.

The NBA points spread is my market of choice but the Lakers spread tonight is a genuine coin flip. No smart side to be on.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

35-18 (65%)

4-2 last night BUT with a -190 -123 and minus -120 pick. I did find overs in the San Jose/Edmonton game at +115 and it was trading 2.12-2.16 on the exchanges so a slight +EV bet.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

NBA tonight - Toronto (-1.5)

DOUBLE PLAY - Trading 1.92 to lay on Betfair. This line will move!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
shackfu99
Joined: 11/01/2011
Posts: 2828
All Pro
Top 200 Contributor

I already see -2 popping up.

Gangster dolphins
Marine biologists studying Australian dolphins discovered that the mammals form complex hierarchies within their pods in order to attack other groups. Some individuals serve as fighters. Others serve as liaisons to go out and recruit new members. These "intricate webs" are rare in the animal kingdom, says Virginia Morell at Wired, and strikingly reminiscent of "the Mafia."

I blame Snoop Dog.

"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself” WinstonChurchill

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1116
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Sport Wins Losses Ties Win % Units Won

CBB 3 5 0 37.50 -245.00

MLB 2 1 0 66.67 140.00

NBA 22 18 0 55.00 220.00

NHL 8 2 0 80.00 654.00

Total 35-26 (57.37%)

Units Won $769

Not enough of a sample size to prove anything but I'm certain the combination of always getting the best available line and looking for the best side of the line is a winning formula.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB6166248.03763.00
NBA3645044.44-1335.00
NHL2321052.27254.00
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