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Official Reporting Thread: Pick Promotion Questions

Official Reporting Thread: Pick Promotion Questions
blooney44135
Joined: 06/09/2014
Posts: 26
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blooney44135

blooney44135

bk76

Gooner81

Thanks for the response, Dave. As you said, the Deadspin data has you at +32.65u for regular season CFB from 2011-2015 (this is all without fees). But that includes some misgraded parlays/teasers. After correcting for those, I'm getting -18.95u for those plays.

Wow. The 0.1% can affect long term promotion. Great use of this thread guys, the transparency really is second to none!

Since it seems to be a bit of an open issue, and I was curious, I went through the rest of Dave Essler’s football record since the start of the 2011 season, checking for typos or system misgrades in either direction. Here’s a summary of what I found.

There were four plays where the unit size of the play was different than what was entered into the system; the intention for the play to be bigger or smaller than what was entered is clarified in the writeup. The ID numbers for these plays are 143578, 147258, 180106, 184704.

There are three plays where there appears to be a typo on the spread that was entered into the system. For each of these, the spread mentioned in the writeup is different, and after checking the line history, it appears the writeup spread is indeed correct. The ID numbers for these plays are 97804, 100079, 144323.

There was one instance of a parlay graded as a win, but it looks like the second leg lost: 145863.

There are forty-one instances of teasers that appear to be misgraded. For each of these, it seems like the play was just graded based on the result of the first leg of the teaser, but the result of the second leg was different, causing the system to grade it incorrectly. The ID numbers for these plays are 96858, 97777, 100886, 102817, 123566, 124512, 124913, 127340, 128368, 128680, 128856, 128932, 129023, 129413, 142295, 144312, 144782, 145720, 145759, 145974, 146049, 146368, 146542, 147252, 148463, 148513, 149263, 150134, 165099, 165257, 165389, 165895, 166538, 167157, 168090, 168186, 180950, 182387, 183143, 183469, 184719.

There are ten instances where the teaser price is -110 in the system, but a different price is used in the writeup; I guess maybe the system just defaults to -110? The ID numbers for these are 99972, 101746, 104159, 121596, 127412, 127556, 127716, 128160, 128249, 145625.

Finally, fifteen plays were not graded at all. I’m not sure why this would be the case, but it’s not like they’re showing as pushes or anything, there’s just nothing. The ID numbers for these are 94292, 94293, 94432, 94433, 94463, 94989, 95960, 97044, 97087, 97103, 97412, 97478, 97499, 97698, 98098.

I hope that is everything, I tried to be thorough and include anything that might affect Dave’s record in either direction.

A lot of these still have not been corrected; I'm not sure why that would be the case?

Also, the package promotion here is not accurate once these corrections are taken into account:

 Dave has NEVER had a losing NFL season at Pregame and has won 4 out of last 5 college football regular seasons (up over 35 units)!

Dave has NEVER had a losing NFL season at Pregame.

After incorporating the changes, it looks like, for NFL:

2011: Preseason +0.65u, Reg Season -2.25u, Postseason -9.10u, -10.70u overall

2012: Preseason -1.85u, Reg Season -24.65u, Postseason +8.65u, -17.85u overall

2013: Preseason +3.20u, Reg Season -6.90u, Postseason +1.20u, -2.50u overall

2014: Preseason -14.80u, Reg Season -13.10u, Postseason +8.40u, -19.50u overall

2015: Preseason +9.85, Reg Season -7.00u, Postseason +2.40u, +5.25u overall

Total: Preseason -2.95u, Regular Season -53.90u, Postseason +11.55u, -45.3u overall

CASEYWARD420
Joined: 01/31/2008
Posts: 31478
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

blooney44135

blooney44135

blooney44135

bk76

Gooner81

Thanks for the response, Dave. As you said, the Deadspin data has you at +32.65u for regular season CFB from 2011-2015 (this is all without fees). But that includes some misgraded parlays/teasers. After correcting for those, I'm getting -18.95u for those plays.

Wow. The 0.1% can affect long term promotion. Great use of this thread guys, the transparency really is second to none!

Since it seems to be a bit of an open issue, and I was curious, I went through the rest of Dave Essler’s football record since the start of the 2011 season, checking for typos or system misgrades in either direction. Here’s a summary of what I found.

There were four plays where the unit size of the play was different than what was entered into the system; the intention for the play to be bigger or smaller than what was entered is clarified in the writeup. The ID numbers for these plays are 143578, 147258, 180106, 184704.

There are three plays where there appears to be a typo on the spread that was entered into the system. For each of these, the spread mentioned in the writeup is different, and after checking the line history, it appears the writeup spread is indeed correct. The ID numbers for these plays are 97804, 100079, 144323.

There was one instance of a parlay graded as a win, but it looks like the second leg lost: 145863.

There are forty-one instances of teasers that appear to be misgraded. For each of these, it seems like the play was just graded based on the result of the first leg of the teaser, but the result of the second leg was different, causing the system to grade it incorrectly. The ID numbers for these plays are 96858, 97777, 100886, 102817, 123566, 124512, 124913, 127340, 128368, 128680, 128856, 128932, 129023, 129413, 142295, 144312, 144782, 145720, 145759, 145974, 146049, 146368, 146542, 147252, 148463, 148513, 149263, 150134, 165099, 165257, 165389, 165895, 166538, 167157, 168090, 168186, 180950, 182387, 183143, 183469, 184719.

There are ten instances where the teaser price is -110 in the system, but a different price is used in the writeup; I guess maybe the system just defaults to -110? The ID numbers for these are 99972, 101746, 104159, 121596, 127412, 127556, 127716, 128160, 128249, 145625.

Finally, fifteen plays were not graded at all. I’m not sure why this would be the case, but it’s not like they’re showing as pushes or anything, there’s just nothing. The ID numbers for these are 94292, 94293, 94432, 94433, 94463, 94989, 95960, 97044, 97087, 97103, 97412, 97478, 97499, 97698, 98098.

I hope that is everything, I tried to be thorough and include anything that might affect Dave’s record in either direction.

A lot of these still have not been corrected; I'm not sure why that would be the case?

Also, the package promotion here is not accurate once these corrections are taken into account:

 Dave has NEVER had a losing NFL season at Pregame and has won 4 out of last 5 college football regular seasons (up over 35 units)!

Dave has NEVER had a losing NFL season at Pregame.

After incorporating the changes, it looks like, for NFL:

2011: Preseason +0.65u, Reg Season -2.25u, Postseason -9.10u, -10.70u overall

2012: Preseason -1.85u, Reg Season -24.65u, Postseason +8.65u, -17.85u overall

2013: Preseason +3.20u, Reg Season -6.90u, Postseason +1.20u, -2.50u overall

2014: Preseason -14.80u, Reg Season -13.10u, Postseason +8.40u, -19.50u overall

2015: Preseason +9.85, Reg Season -7.00u, Postseason +2.40u, +5.25u overall

Total: Preseason -2.95u, Regular Season -53.90u, Postseason +11.55u, -45.3u overall

Mr Leonard Welcome back to pregame, glad you could entertain us again!

wafflemaker
Joined: 12/07/2010
Posts: 49
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

SleepyJ  continues to use -110 for 7 pt teasers. They are -130 to -140. Also this play needs to be graded correctly to a loss.  http://pregame.com/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=198837

This 7 pt teaser is also being used at -110 instead of the -130 to -140. This play also needs to be graded as a loss. It is showing as a win.

http://pregame.com/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=198470

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
Posts: 31548
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

wafflemaker

SleepyJ  continues to use -110 for 7 pt teasers. They are -130 to -140. Also this play needs to be graded correctly to a loss.  http://pregame.com/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=198837

This 7 pt teaser is also being used at -110 instead of the -130 to -140. This play also needs to be graded as a loss. It is showing as a win.

http://pregame.com/pregamepros/picks/archive.aspx?id=198470

Those were sent to tech, I believe i said that in my pro page thread a few days ago. BOL Waffle, enjoy your holiday.

**30-17** (63%) All-Time GOY    

Follow Me On Twitter : @SleepyJ_Pregame     

Click Here - Today's Premium Play             

  

 

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
Posts: 31548
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

I see they have been corrected. Thanks Tech and Waffle for the good work.

**30-17** (63%) All-Time GOY    

Follow Me On Twitter : @SleepyJ_Pregame     

Click Here - Today's Premium Play             

  

 

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