TRIPLE-PLAY GOES TODAY!!
Here is the complete history of my triple plays at Pregame.com:
7/4/2012 NY Yankees +132 Winner +396
7/5/2012 Kansas City +125 Winner +375
7/6/2012 Toronto +150 Loser -300
7/8/2012 New York Yankees +110 Winner +330
7/17/2012 Chicago White Sox +155 Winner +465
80% winners and ALL were underdogs.
My sixth 3* goes today, 7/21/2012. It is another underdog.
Detroit beat the White Sox 7-1 as a 3* for us, moving our 3*s to 5-1 at pregame and all six were underdogs.
Here is the complete write-up of the play:
The Tigers are 11-2 their last 13 and each of their last three by multiple runs. They have demonstrated toughness when on a winning streak and the Sox have shown virtually no mental toughness when facing a team on a winning streak. We’ll take the quality home dog.
The White Sox are 4-15 at night vs a team that has won three straight, including 0-5 if it is the second game of a series, losing by an average of 5.4 runs per game.
On the other hand, the Tigers are 33-11 (75%) at home after a night win in which they allowed six or fewer hits and a ruthless 63-32 at home vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. They have been the most profitable team in the entire league in this spot.
The Tigers have cashed in each of Porcello’s last two starts and that makes them a play-on team here, as they are 39-11 (78%) at home when they won the last two games their starter started.
Finally, we have one of our most impressive starter-based trends. The Detroit Tigers are a perfect 8-0 in franchise history as a DOG with Porcello when they won at least their last two games. What is really impressive about this trend is that they have won every game by multiple runs – and have won by an average of 5.2 runs. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
starter=Rick Porcello and D and streak>=2
In their last three games in this spot, they beat the Rangers 8-1, the Indians 10-1 and these White Sox 14-4. Porcello has reeled off six straight quality starts in this spot.
Our money is on the Tigers.
MTi’s FORECAST: DETROIT 5 Chicago White Sox 2
That trend of Porcello's is worth saving. Detroit is now a perfect 9-0 in franchise history as a DOG with Porcello when they are on a two-plus game winning streak, winning by an average of over five runs per game and Porcello has seven straight quality starts in this spot.
For Sunday 7/22/2012, we have two 2* underdogs. Both plays are based on the favorite being significantly over-priced.
I split the 2* dogs yesterday, cashing with Toronto +165 to gain the sweep in Boston. Today, I have a 3* and a 2*. Both are underdogs and both have a real chance to steal one in the series opener.
We lost our 3* yesterday to drop to 5-2 on our top plays at pregame. Here is the complete write-up of the selection:
Kansas City is concluding a long homestand in which they were 3-7, winning one game in each of three series. However, the Royals have been much better on the road (23-24) than at home (17-30) this season. We’ll take them at this price vs an Angels team that is off a wire-to-wire win the Rangers on Sunday Night baseball.
Kansas City is a terrific big dog in this spot, going a very profitable 39-36 as a 170-plus underdog vs an AL foe after a loss in which they allowed five plus runs. The SDQL text is:
team=Royals and line>=170 and po:runs>=5 and p:L and C and 20060815<=date<p>
Note that they are 4-0 their last four in this spot, never trailing in any one of the games, and have not lost under these conditions this season.
The Angels are in a very soft spot. LA is 25-37 at night when they are off a win in which they never trailed, costing their backers 20.3 net units. They are 0-3 recently in this spot.
In addition, LA is 10-25 at night off a win over an AL foe in which they scored six-plus runs. The SDQL text is:
team=Angels and NGT and 6<=p:runs and p:WC and 20110509<=date
Note that the Angels were an average of minus-126 on the moneyline in these games and that they are 0-4 their last four in this spot. Since coming to the Angels from Texas, Christopher John has been in this spot four times; the Halos lost them all.
Indeed, Bruce Chen has not been mowing them down lately. However, the Royals are 10-1 as a dog of more than 110 with Chen when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter and had a WHIP of less than 1.5. See for yourself with this SDQL:
starter=Bruce Chen and line>110 and s:SPPH>=4 and s:SWHIP<1.5 and 20090727<=date
The Royals know this is their best chance to steal a game and they will come to play. They are 17-17 as a 170+ dog in the first game of the series when they are off a multiple-run loss – including 5-1 their last six. If the Royals aren’t a coin-flip here, they’re close.
FORECAST: Kansas City 5 LA ANGELS 4
The Royals took a 2-0 lead and it was tied 3-3 going into the eighth, so we had our chances. For tonight, we have another 3* selection. It is another underdog that is oozing with line value. If you don't purchase it today, check out the write-up tomorrow on my pregame.com home page. Win or lose, we're proud of our write-ups and the hard work that goes into them.
Lost another 3* dog last night, but no apologies. I would make the same play again. My 3*s are 5-3 on the year and all were underdogs. More than any other sport, there is a lot of randomness in baseball. Batters can be completely fooled by a pitch and hit a bloop double. A batter can absolutely nail a line drive with first and third and one out, but it can turn into a double play. Serious scientific research reveals to me that finding significant dogs with line value is an excellent way to beat baseball. Of course, we are going to win slightly less than half the time in the long run, but we will produce a substantial profit -- as we have demonstrated in the past.
Tonight we have a 3* underdog that we feel is significantly undervalued. Of course, it is about a coin flip so there is a good chance it will lose -- making it three straight losers in a row for our 3*s. However, it is the right side of the game. We can of course win more than half of our games by releasing 150+ favorites, but we haven't figured out a way to make money doing this. Our goal is not to win tonight only. If it were, we would release, for example, the Angels -230 -- they certainly have a better chance to win than our 3* dog. Our goal is to be able to say at the end of the season that we are up X units in baseball, where X is a big number.
We also have two 2* on tonight's card -- both are favorites that are undervalued. As always, we are proud of our write-ups win-or-lose and we invite all of pregame.com to read our write-ups by going to DrEdMeyer.com and clicking on the links provided in my "Last 10 Picks" box.
The plays were 3-0 yesterday anchored by a 3* on San Diego +175 over the Giants -- a 6-3 winner in which the Padres never trailed. I was probably not on the right side of the St Louis game, but I won nonetheless. I invite all the pregame members to read all my write-ups by going to my home page DrEdMeyer.com and clicking on the links in my "Last Ten Picks" box. Win or lose we are proud of our in-depth research and sophisticated analysis. This is what gives us the edge over the linesmakers -- information that is NOT already factored into the line.
My 3*s are now 6-3 at pregame and all were underdogs.
For Thursday, I have one play, a 2* that goes in the afternoon.
James Shields has made 211 starts in the majors. In only two of them did he allowed five-plus walks. One was August 14th, 2008 and the other was last night. He hit a batter and walked two in the fifth inning alone and all three scored, breaking open a scoreless game. That said, a tip of the hat to Chris Tillman of the Orioles. On to today.
It is certainly not my style to promote plays and exaggerate their quality. I have two plays today that I could not rate anything less than 3*. I really tried to find something wrong with them but could not. So, two 3*s on the same card for the first time at pregame. When you read the write-ups I think you'll agree that they are both quality 3*s.
If you have been following along, I have released nine 3*s at pregame and all nine were dogs. They are 6-3. We have a real chance at 8-3 after tonight.
If you don't get the plays today, we invite you to read the write-ups after the games go off.
Well, we split the triple plays last night, and both were dogs. I'm surprised that money came in on the Phillies yesterday in Atlanta vs Ben Sheets when Hamels was off a start in which he threw the most pitches in his career. Somebody with a lot of money likes to bet on the Phillies.
Today, I have a 3* and two 2*s. Each play is supported by information that is NOT available to the linesmakers and hence, is not already factored into the line. The plays come with proven trends in past performance that include the SDQL text so the trends can be independently verified.
The 3* was another dog winner yesterday (Dodgers over Giants), moving my 3*s to 8-4 at pregame and all 12 were dogs. We also cashed with Arizona -175 over the Mets.
Today, we have two 2*s. One in afternoon action and the other in the Boston - New York ESPN game. In that Sunday Nighter we have uncovered a situation in which one team is 14-0 winning by an average of a staggering 5.4 runs per game. Their last eight in this spot were wins by scores of: 11-2, 10-3, 12-1, 7-2, 10-2, 7-3, 5-1 and 3-1 and all eight are from THIS SEASON. Let the Doctor put you on the right side of this one.
I was 1-1 yesterday with two 160 dogs. Kansas City gave the Mariners all they could handle before losing 7-6 and the Red Sox beat the Yankees 3-2 and they never trailed.
This is my goal -- release significant dogs that are about a coin flip to win. Certainly, the Red Sox could have lost last night. but in the same vein, the Royals could have won.
As always, we invite the pregame family to check out our write-ups for ALL of our plays at "Last Ten Picks" at DrEdMeyer.com. Win or lose, we are proud of our sophisticated analysis and exclusive information.
Today, I have one 2*, reasonably priced at $15.