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Free Pick from Professor Ed Meyer
BALTIMORE +120 over LA Angels – Jered Weaver has been a fantastic pitcher over the years. Almost all of his trends are play-on. He is especially potent after a bad outing. However, there is one spot in which he has burned a lot of cash – on the road after a terrific home start.
In Weaver’s last outing he needed only 78 pitches over six innings while allowing no runs on two hits in a 6-0 win. The Angels are 2-18 with Weaver on the road after a home start in which he threw fewer than 115 pitches and had a WHIP of less than one. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
starter=Jered Weaver and A and s:H and s:SWHIP<1 and s:SPT<115 and 20060801<=date
Note that the Angels are 0-7 their last seven in this spot. This amazing starter-based trend can be tightened up further by lowering the Starter’s WHIP in his last start to 0.75. Since 2007, the Angels are 0-8 on the road with Jered Weaver when he had a WHIP of less than 0.75 at home in his last start while throwing fewer than 115 pitches. The SDQL text is:
starter=Jered Weaver and A and s:H and s:SWHIP<0.75 and s:SPT<115 and season>=2007
Weaver has produced only two quality starts in the eight appearances and the Angels are 0-2 in this spot this season.
In addition, the Angels give wins like yesterday’s 7-3 wire-to-wire victory right back. LA is 0-10 on the road at night when their opponent has immediate revenge for a four-plus run loss in which they never led. The SDQL text is:
team=Angels and NGT and A and po:BL=0 and p:margin>3 and SG>1 and 20110601<=date
The Orioles are BY FAR the best-in-league as a home dog vs a team on a winning streak. Baltimore is 35-20 as a night home DOG off a night game vs a team that has won at least their last two games. That’s 15 games above 500 as a dog. The second best team in the entire league in this spot is the Rays and they are 23-22. Wow.
Finally, Baltimore is terrific when seeking revenge vs their opponent’s starter. The Orioles are 5-0 as a home dog when seeking same-season revenge for a loss vs their opponent’s starter. In the last occurrence (May 15th), the Orioles beat the Yankees with Sabathia 5-2.
This has been a very soft spot for Weaver and this is not factored into this line. The Orioles are a fine investment.
DR MEYER'S FORECAST: BALTIMORE 6 LA Angels 2
6/29/2012 -- FREE PLAY
TORONTO +105 over LA Angels – The Angels have won four straight by multiple runs and they took the series opener by a 9-7 margin yesterday. The loss was the Jays’ third straight – all by multiple runs. This is a great spot to back Toronto.
Santana is simply not at his best vs a team on a losing streak. The Angels are 0-13 in franchise history with Ervin Santana as a road favorite when their opponent is on a two-plus game losing streak, an the Angels are responsible for at least one of the losses. The SDQL text is:
starter=Ervin Santana and AF and o:streak<=-2 and SG>1
Santana has only produced four quality starts in these 13 games, allowing an average of 4.08 runs in an average of 5.79 innings. Note that, on the average the Angels were minus-130 on the moneyline in these 13 games.
As a team, the Angels are equally poor in this spot. The Halos are 0-12 since the start of the 2011 season on the road at night vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series. The SDQL text is:
team=Angels and NGT and A and o:streak<=-2 and SG>1 and season>=2011
Note that LA has lost by an average of 3.3 runs per game and they were an average of minus-118 on the moneyline. They are 0-3 in this spot this season, losing as a 150-plus favorite each time.
On the other hand, the Jays are 82-40 at home after allowing six-plus runs. This 67.2% win rate in this spot is the best in the league. The Red Sox are second with 64.4% wins. This 82-40 record has produced a net profit of 37.1 net games – by far the best in the league.
Finally, Toronto is 14-7 as a night DOG vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
Ervin Santana has some terrific play-on spots, but this is not one of them. Take the Jays.
FORECAST: TORONTO 6 LA Angels 4
Good Luck to All!
It's 4:10 EST, I got a pot of coffee and I'm rarin' to go on my first day as a pregame.com Handicapper! This is an honor of which I will take full advantage.
For those thinking about Boston being motivated to get revenge from yesterday's extra-inning loss, note that the Red Sox are 0-14 when seeking immediate revenge for an extra-inning loss in which their starter went more than five and a third innings. The SDQL is:
team=Red Sox and p:X and p:L and SG>1 and p:SIP>5.5 and 20070601<=date
I'm not saying you should not play on Boston. I just don't think you should play on them because they have quick revenge for an extra inning-loss. They are 0-2 in this spot this season with both losses as a favorite.
Good stuff, Doc!
And great stuff, PG!
Doc, who's you're favorite DOG in MLB?
Don't Be Stupid
Discipline, young purks. Discipline.
Ed, you are the man...the start of something great!!
Alright, I think I have extracted three games worth an investment -- A 2* and two 1*s. Here is one of the 1*s.
Kansas City +120 over MINNESOTA -- After dropping the opener of this four game set, the Twins have won two straight while never trailing. Minnesota has not been a good investment in this spot. The Twins are 10-21 vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. On the contrary, the Royals are 8-3 as a road dog vs an AL team that has won at least their last two games.
The last time Bruce Chen started against the Twins, he was up against Liriano. Kansas City won 1-0. The Twins are not a revenge-minded team, going 3-17 vs an AL foe when seeking same-season revenge for a loss vs their opponent’s starting pitcher, including 0-4 this season.
Liriano is off a 4-1 win over the White Sox in which he went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits. He should be vulnerable here. The Twins are 0-6 with Liriano when he is off a team win in a start in which he allowed six or fewer hits and threw 100+ pitches, losing by an average of 5.2 rpg. The SDQL is:
starter=Francisco Liriano and s:SHA<=6 and s:W and s:SPT>=100 and 20100919<=date
He has no quality starts since last June in this spot, going 0-3 while allowing an average of 4.33 runs in an average of 3.78 innings pitched with an average WHIP of 2.40. Ouch.
As bad as the Royals have been over the last six-plus seasons, they are the by far most profitable team in the majors on the road during the day in the last game of a series. Kansas City is 59-56 since 2007 in a day road series finale. The SDQL text is:
team=Royals and DAY and A and SG=SGS and season>=2007
The Royals have been an average of +150 on the moneyline in these 115 games, which is a LOT of profit. They were the underdog in 101 of the 115 games. They are one of a few teams in the entire league that are over 500 in this spot. This season is actually their best ever in this spot, going 8-3 so far during the day on the road in the last game of a series.
The Royals are at least a coin-flip here so they are worth a shot at +120.
FORECAST: Kansas City 6 MINNESOTA 2
Questions and comments welcome! Good Luck to All!!
In general. I like Dogs that are consistently under-valued. Anyway...
One more question, as far as SDQL, how far does it reach in terms of sports other than football, baseball? Or is it just reliably better in those sports?
Thank you for the time and service you're giving this community.