Reds plus $1.25 at Mets
The Mets are an overachieving 20-16 team. I'm going to be looking for spots to fade them. This is one such spot.
Yes, the Mets are home and Johan Santana is pitching. Santana is on the comeback trail after missing last season and doing a nice job this year with a 2.92 ERA. But the Mets didn't win for Santana when he was healthy. This year Santana is 1-2.
The Mets have to take it easy with Santana. Only once has he gone through the seventh inning. The Mets' bullpen, particularly closer Frank Francisco, is extremely vulnerable. Francisco has an ERA of 8.59 yet remains the team's closer.
The Reds not only have the far superior bullpen, but a much better everyday lineup, too. The Mets are going to sink because of all their injuries. They are down to second-stringers at catcher and second base. Their outfield is banged-up with Terry Collins constantly having to platoon various journeymen/minor league types. Rony Cedeno is the shortstop, which is quite a comedown from Jose Reyes. First baseman Ike Davis is either hurt or sick. He's batting .164.
Reds starter Mike Leake has been a major disappointment, although he showed signs of coming around during his second-to-last start. Leake, though, has too much talent to continue to be this bad. He'll be helped here pitching in spacious Citi Field against a weak Mets offense that ranks 28th in homers.
The Reds are 5-1 the last six times Leake has been a road 'dog of up to plus $1.50, while the Mets are 1-7 the past eight times they've been favored by up to minus $1.50.
I went 2-0 on my NBA plays Tuesday night. I've now won seven straight NBA plays and have a double-star going today. I am 47-28-2 (62%) on my last 77 NBA plays. I am 6-0 the past three days on basketball and baseball and have cashed on my last six baseball over/under plays.
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As always, no bad luck!
Sick run Nover. Sick.
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I bought your package Nover and you nailed em both....unfortunately for me i was on tha opposite side of your Pacers pick. But i put extra on tha spurs. Excellent job. And thanks for tha shout out JD. Wished i coulda hit my pick. Anyways...good luck forward fellas.
I'm on it!
DubV's take on Stephen Nover's take on the Mets: pregame.com/.../290485.aspx
Thanks for the support.
Good luck to you DubV. Excellent analysis on the Reds-Mets. Appreciate all your hard work breaking down this game. Very impressive.
I know certain wiseguys who love the Mets in this game. The Mets are going to throw a lot of left-handed bats at Leake. I just can't see the Mets sustaining this winning percentage with the everyday lineup they've been forced to use.
Nice Run in NBA Stephen keep it up....See you in the studio for Videos later!!
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Stephen Nover: 1- DubV: 0. Mets' bullpen (Rauch) blew it and the offense wasn't enough. Good call on this one, looking forward to your next Mets video.