I've been a member on this forum for a while but never really post. I would like to start my own handicapping thread for personal records and maybe for others to follow eventually after long-term results.
I'm currently a professional poker player but recently online action has dried up after the big sites got shut down and it just isn't very profitable anymore. That along with my hatred for playing live poker more than 20 hours a week and I've started to focus most of my attention on handicapping. After 3 months of consistent winning I finally think I have some things figured out. There were a lot of things I did not know about handicapping that have helped me tremendously and really changed the way I look at games. A lot of my capping comes from things I see in games that I carry over when I'm analyzing match-ups. My main sport is the NBA and it's definitely the one I am most confident to bet on.
Hopefully this is a great learning experience for me and the last 3 months results aren't a fluke. Thanks to anyone who follows and PLEASE chip in some advice if you see anything I may be missing in certain games.
Rule #1. Bankroll Management!
Rule #2. Discipline!
I typically risk 1 to 5 percent of my total bankroll everyday. Some days I have a ton of bets and others I cant find a line worth betting. Within the 1 to 5 percent I make my bets 1 to 3 units, and sometimes 4 or 5 on big cards. I rarely bet more than 5 percent of my BR but I have risked up to 15 percent a few times when I see enough games worth the risk.
1* Minnesota Gophers +3.5 (Posted Late)
1*- Magic -8
2*- Nets -4 1/2
2*- Pistons +8 1/2
4* Dallas - 4 1/2
Thank you shackfu. Discipline is key for my success handicapping, appreciate the advice.
Good luck Biggie, I also come from a poker background, I find sports betting/capping much less stressful day to day.
Though I'm not a professional I have been betting quite a bit daily(volume wise) for about 6 months. Fwiw it's worth I find sports betting to be far lower variance then poker..
I also use the 1-5% rule, however I will risk it each play. So most plays will be 2-3% and up 5-8% on plays I really like. Although for the record there are many times on some weekends where I might have action on 10-15 cbb games as well as say 5 nba games and maybe 5+ games on various other sports such as nhl, nrl(rugby league)etc.. So the point I'm trying to make is that I don't mind at all and in fact I quite enjoy spreading out 60+%(sometimes all!!) of my overall bankroll on any given day.
The way I see it, $money$ is the tool of the trade. The more I put it to work the more work it does. Say for example you have $1000 online and you're betting $25-50 per game, grinding away.. Now if you only bet say 4 games per day maybe 3-1*plays($25) and a 2*($50) you have bet $125+ juice and you have $875~ just sitting there collecting dust! Now alot of people will tell you that this is just fine, and I don't have anything against it personally but imo if you want make money don't be afraid to slowly start adding a few more games to your daily card.. Just my 2 cents. $BOL$
2013 Golf Records:
PGA (23) EPGA (10) LPGA (7) Other (4)
18 Hole 78-67-21 +29.31 11-7-2 +5.2 2-6 -5.85
72 Hole 41-34-3 +16.64 10-5 +9.40 9-2 +12.3
Futures 15-159 +41.5 6-53 +26.58 5-29 +37.5 0-19 -19
Other 11-34 -10.2 2-4 -2.2
(Top 10, Props etc)
follow me on twitter @djs123sports
Thanks djs, your strategy definitely seems really aggressive and I wish had the confidence to do that. Maybe eventually I will if the winning stays consistent. Your never afraid of a really bad day and losing half your bankroll though?
Mavs pick never had a chance last night and they were not the team I expected to show up. Lakers looked really good and Ramon Sessions is making a really big splash for them.
Record 3-2 (-2.6 Units)
I really like tonight's card and I'm spreading out a decent amount of action.
1* Memphis Grizzlies -1
1* Pacers/Wizards Over 200
1* Marquette -2
2* Michigan St -5
2* Milwaukee Bucks -3.5
3* Utah Jazz +2
3* Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5
4* LA Clippers -4
Expecting to pick up at least 5 units today with these picks.
Hey Big, sorry for a short reply I'm on my ph here.. Anyway no I'm never afraid of really bad days as I'm not afraid of really good days.. The worst day I had a was a few weeks ago I managed to drop about 12 units, but I typically don't win or lose more then about 5 units per day.. BOL
No problem. Sounds like you eliminate the variance by having so many games instead of increasing it. Can't lose when you do that. Thanks again for the advice and feel free to drop some of your big plays in here if you want.
Good luck, Biggie. By all means do stick with your money management unless you can afford to reload frequently. Although there is merit to not wanting your money to collect dust, like poker and bad beats.....everyone goes on a really bad run at times and the account will be drained. If it is all in play and you hit one of these streaks....look out. Unlike poker, you have no control once your money is down. Just my opinion....do you take ALL your money to a live poker game? Same concept in my eyes.....
Get 'em, Pregamers!