AFL (AUSTRALIAN RULES FOOTBALL) SEASON 2012

Round 1.

I have no idea why they split this round - baffles me.

Greater Western Sydney Giants +1900 vs Sydney Swans -4000
Sat 24th March - ANZ Stadium
Line: GWS +99.5 to 90.5
Total: TBA

Richmond Tigers +214 vs Carlton Blues -240
Thu 29th March - MCG
Line: Richmond +22.5 to +14.5
Total: TBA

Hawthorn Hawks -106  v Collingwood Magpies   -104 
Fri 30th march - MCG
Line: Hawthorn +5.5 to Pick em
Total: TBA

Melbourne Demons -225  v Brisbane Lions   +201
Sat 31st March - MCG
Line: Melbourne -14.5
Total: TBA
 
Gold Coast Suns   +277 v Adelaide Crows   -315
Sat 31st March - Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +22.5 to +24.5
Total: TBA

North Melbourne Kangaroos   +104  v Essendon Bombers   -115 
Sat 31st march - Etihad Stadium
Line: North Melb +3.5
Total: TBA

Fremantle Dockers   +126  v Geelong Cats   -139 
Sat 31st March - Pattersons Stadium
Line: Fremantle +8.5 to +7.5
Total: TBA

Western Bulldogs   +131  v West Coast Eagles   -145
Sun 1st April - Etihad Staium
Line: Western Bulldogs +6.5 to +7.5
Total: TBA

Port Adelaide Power   +239 v St.Kilda Saints   -270
Sun 1st April - AAMI Stadium
Line: Port Adelaide +24.5 to +20.5
Total: TBA

I was born and live in Australia and follow AFL religiously. Will be a massive year with Round1 kicking off with Sydney vs GWS. Line opened at around the 100 mark, been smashed down to 85.5. Biggest line in the history of AFL betting as this GWS team is in its first year and is full of kids.

Looking forward to a massive year!

the MCG is still off limits this week due to cricket, so they couldn't start the season this week even if they wanted too, considering nrl is up and running, they are putting in Sydney this week to try and compete against them.

GWS +99 is long gone too

Apologies for the opening lines - adjusted to reflect opening / current movement.

Even if the MCG is off limits, why have 1 game a week early? It seems an over reaction to the bad press the AFL recieved last year when the Gold Coast Suns were given a bye in their first week in the league! So this year they give the GWS a game on a weekend all by themselves? Clearly if the MCG was off limits, however they could have scheduled other interstate games or etihad games over the two weeks?

Personal opinion - im just not a fan of it.

Anyway that is beside the point - its happening.

Brief thoughts on Round 1.

GWS vs Sydney.

Don't like the line. The Gold Coast lost 2 of their first 4 games by in excess of 100 points. Sydney are not well known for covering big lines. Have to grab the ATS stats for lines in excess of 60 points but they were certianly in the favour of the favourite over the past 2 seasons. Will be very interesting totals here.

Hawthorn vs Collingwood.

This line has moved from Hawks +5.5 to pick and will have hawks starting favourite imo. Injuries have hit both teams but those at Collingwood seem more significant in this match up. Hawks have proved they are up and about in preseason. Hawks ML is as short as -125 ($1.80) after being +125 ($2.25) two weeks ago. Pinnacle still has Hawthorn at -108 ($1.926) which is good buying at this point.

Bet Hawthorn ML -108

Gold Coast vs Adelaide

Adelaide are the preseason premiers and have looked very good in their preseason games. The Suns are up against it - preseason they were beaten 59 points by Geelong team without its stars, 13 points by the GWS and then managhed to get within 19 points of a Sydney team that were comletely dominant but wasteful - having 19 more shots at goal . That loss could easily and probably should have been 60+ points.

I thought that this line would be closer to 40 - so getting 24 for me is a good number. Adelaide easily accounted for the suns in two match ups last year getting home by 57 and 59 points.   I think they will repeat the dose here. When the betting action gets underway next week i would expect this line to move.

Bet Adelaide -24.5

On it !!  $$$

Got the Hawks tonight at what turned out to be value.

Bet Hawthorn ML -108 

(posted a while ago now) price gone now but consider Hawthorn 1-39 +125 or even either team under 15.5 +155

have a few AFL plays posted tomorrow.

Bet Melbourne -15.5 +100 @ pinnacle.

on Adelaide -24.5 @ -105  from earlier  the month.

Very dirty on Melbourne there - they got smashed by a Brisbane team that has won just once the last 17 times Jonathan Brown didnt play for them.  Very very poor.

North Melbourne v Essendon OVER 202 -110 (luxbet)

Nice 3-1 this round