AFL SEASON 2012
I will use this thread for the upcoming AFL season, starts in a few days time.
Weekly discussion with anyone interested, analysis & selections.
Decent $$$ to be made on AFL - The markets are no where near as sharp as on American sports. Same as NRL.
Australian sport does not attract the same level of freely available statistical analysis as North American Sport. It is still heavily bet, but there is not the same level of sharp money - bookmakers are often reactionary as a result.
@Downisthenewup_ & @RTP_NFL
Pro sports investor specialising in NFL NRL & AFL
I have no idea why they split this round - baffles me.
Greater Western Sydney Giants +1900 vs Sydney Swans -4000Sat 24th March - ANZ StadiumLine: GWS +99.5 to 90.5Total: TBA
Richmond Tigers +214 vs Carlton Blues -240Thu 29th March - MCGLine: Richmond +22.5 to +14.5Total: TBA
Hawthorn Hawks -106 v Collingwood Magpies -104 Fri 30th march - MCGLine: Hawthorn +5.5 to Pick emTotal: TBA
Melbourne Demons -225 v Brisbane Lions +201Sat 31st March - MCGLine: Melbourne -14.5Total: TBA Gold Coast Suns +277 v Adelaide Crows -315 Sat 31st March - Metricon StadiumLine: Gold Coast +22.5 to +24.5Total: TBA
North Melbourne Kangaroos +104 v Essendon Bombers -115 Sat 31st march - Etihad StadiumLine: North Melb +3.5Total: TBA
Fremantle Dockers +126 v Geelong Cats -139 Sat 31st March - Pattersons StadiumLine: Fremantle +8.5 to +7.5Total: TBA
Western Bulldogs +131 v West Coast Eagles -145 Sun 1st April - Etihad StaiumLine: Western Bulldogs +6.5 to +7.5Total: TBA
Port Adelaide Power +239 v St.Kilda Saints -270 Sun 1st April - AAMI StadiumLine: Port Adelaide +24.5 to +20.5Total: TBA
I was born and live in Australia and follow AFL religiously. Will be a massive year with Round1 kicking off with Sydney vs GWS. Line opened at around the 100 mark, been smashed down to 85.5. Biggest line in the history of AFL betting as this GWS team is in its first year and is full of kids.
Looking forward to a massive year!
the MCG is still off limits this week due to cricket, so they couldn't start the season this week even if they wanted too, considering nrl is up and running, they are putting in Sydney this week to try and compete against them.
GWS +99 is long gone too
Apologies for the opening lines - adjusted to reflect opening / current movement.
Even if the MCG is off limits, why have 1 game a week early? It seems an over reaction to the bad press the AFL recieved last year when the Gold Coast Suns were given a bye in their first week in the league! So this year they give the GWS a game on a weekend all by themselves? Clearly if the MCG was off limits, however they could have scheduled other interstate games or etihad games over the two weeks?
Personal opinion - im just not a fan of it.
Anyway that is beside the point - its happening.
Brief thoughts on Round 1.
GWS vs Sydney.
Don't like the line. The Gold Coast lost 2 of their first 4 games by in excess of 100 points. Sydney are not well known for covering big lines. Have to grab the ATS stats for lines in excess of 60 points but they were certianly in the favour of the favourite over the past 2 seasons. Will be very interesting totals here.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood.
This line has moved from Hawks +5.5 to pick and will have hawks starting favourite imo. Injuries have hit both teams but those at Collingwood seem more significant in this match up. Hawks have proved they are up and about in preseason. Hawks ML is as short as -125 ($1.80) after being +125 ($2.25) two weeks ago. Pinnacle still has Hawthorn at -108 ($1.926) which is good buying at this point.
Bet Hawthorn ML -108
Gold Coast vs Adelaide
Adelaide are the preseason premiers and have looked very good in their preseason games. The Suns are up against it - preseason they were beaten 59 points by Geelong team without its stars, 13 points by the GWS and then managhed to get within 19 points of a Sydney team that were comletely dominant but wasteful - having 19 more shots at goal . That loss could easily and probably should have been 60+ points.
I thought that this line would be closer to 40 - so getting 24 for me is a good number. Adelaide easily accounted for the suns in two match ups last year getting home by 57 and 59 points. I think they will repeat the dose here. When the betting action gets underway next week i would expect this line to move.
Bet Adelaide -24.5
On it !! $$$
Got the Hawks tonight at what turned out to be value.
Bet Hawthorn ML -108
(posted a while ago now) price gone now but consider Hawthorn 1-39 +125 or even either team under 15.5 +155
have a few AFL plays posted tomorrow.
Bet Melbourne -15.5 +100 @ pinnacle.
on Adelaide -24.5 @ -105 from earlier the month.
Very dirty on Melbourne there - they got smashed by a Brisbane team that has won just once the last 17 times Jonathan Brown didnt play for them. Very very poor.
North Melbourne v Essendon OVER 202 -110 (luxbet)
Nice 3-1 this round