Question For RJ or JD About Pro Pick Grading

Let me start this off saying that this is NOT a complaint about a losing pick, however something that I have wondered for years now here at Pregame...

Why are pro picks graded based on the line put out when the pick is created.  What I mean is, it's easy for a pro to shop around when writing up a pick and find the best line for their cause.  But, for the person who purchased the pick and makes their wagers later on, they can often times not get this line.

I am not sure how often this happens, and again, I am not calling out any pro as this is not a complaint about a loss, we all lose and understand you buy losing picks sometimes, but last night anyone who bet Iowa St and Golden St with a local, or closer to game times most likely went 0-1-1 but it is graded as 1-0-1.

Seems like little difference in one win to one loss, but in the grand scheme of a year, we covet pros who win 100 units.  The difference between a 2 unit win and a 2 unit loss is 4.2 units.  Over a year, if this happens 10 times (this is a guess not a definitive number) thats a 42 unit difference from the 100 unit winning capper.

I would just like clarification on why picks arent graded on closing lines (even Demarco's site grades those jokers on closing lines).

Anyone else have any input on this?

Kyle,

I would say the MAJORITY of the time I get a pick from a Pro on here, I end up getting a worse line than the one they are using. That or I have to buy points and if the pick loses, I lose the -120, -130, etc. This is especially true in basketball where the lines move so much and so fast.

I can already tell you what the Pros and what RJ and JD will say though. They will tell you that you need at least 3 outs so that will give you a better chance to shop lines and get the best number. In an ideal world this works. But I don't play offshore anymore, I strictly use a local. I just don't feel comfortable sending money offshore anymore. Not to mention, does the average bettor have enough of a bankroll to send money to 3 different offshore books? I wouldn't think so. Good post and I'm interested to see some of the responses in this thread.

I 100% disagree with this.  If you really want to be a winner, you will take the steps needed to become one.  This includes getting multiple outs and being willing to get down early.  Being a winning tout is way harder than being a winning player for reasons like this.  The most successful type of tout you could have would be one who didn't care if he had any clients or not.  Unfortunately success in the industry is measured by more than wins and losses

In response to Stew, I have money in 10 different places and my entire bankroll is low 5 figures.  If you use P2P and take advantage of the one free payout every month, and never send less than 300 to any book to avoid paying fees, you can nice money around very easily.  

There are so many reasons why this would be a HORRIBLE idea I don't even know where to start. I will just be brief. If I see a line dip a couple points and because of that dip I play the game, and then by gametime the line is push back to it's orginal level. You are saying that I should be graded at the worst level?

One of the Biggest if not THE Biggest reasons that makes a handicapper worthy is the ability to BEAT the closing line. Your scenerio would for sure Penalize the Best Handicappers, and Reward the Worst...

Greg, you obviously make a great point. And let me state, I don't agree with Kyle that Pros should be graded on the closing line. My point was that its often very difficult for the average bettor to get the line that the pro releases on here.

Let's take Shaker for a second. IMO he is one of the best cappers here bar none. What sucks is that I would never buy a Greg Shaker package because I would have to have 3 offshore accounts open. Not only would I have to have them open, I would have to have enough of a balance to bet the kind of volume that Shaker plays day in and day out.

It is hard to get my numbers Stew and you have to be pro-active to do that. I average about 3.7 plays per day and that is higher volume than most...

But being graded on the closing line would force me to release plays very late which would not be good for the customer in so many ways...

*edit*

i was also on the Warriors and know the pain of the land game landing on three. at the same time, with the email alerts and the customer being notified when it is released we have to use the line at time of release.

Good responses and discussion guys, it certainly can be frustrating to purchase a pick and see the line off by 1-2 points and kind of not know what to do but it's too late at that point because you already paid for the pick