This town won't appreciate Tony Romo until he's gone and the Cowboys are back playing with the Quincy Carters and Chad Hutchinsons of this world. Remember those days?
You don't appreciate a quality quarterback until you don't have one. Few teams have the good fortune of making the transition from a Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck as the Colts are prepared to do. When Romo is done, it may be 5-10-15 years before the Cowboys find another quarterback of his ability.
DCI NFL
Season
Straight Up: 176-80 (.688)
ATS: 130-123 (.514)
ATS Vary Units: 661-576 (.534)
Over/Under: 136-123 (.525)
Over/Under Vary Units: 461-352 (.567)
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Super Bowl XLVI
at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
New England 29, N.Y. Giants 27
DOUBLE DRAGON SUPER BOWL (8-2-1 in playoffs)
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GIANTS +3 vs patriots
Northcoast Super Bowl System (91%) play is:
New England Patriots
Prediction Machine
The 2012 NFL postseason results have been very strong with all ATS sides at 7-3 ATS (70%) and all playable picks (both sides and totals 53%+) are 12-6 ATS and O/U (67%). The ATS Top Play of the Day (Saturday and Sunday during the Wild Card and Divisional Round and Sunday during the conference championships) is a perfect 5-0 ATS (100%). Not to be outdone, our lifetime record in the NFL Playoffs is a stunning 19-3 ATS (86%).
Giants +3, 58.3%
Over 55, 54.2%, total scored 58
Philly WiseGuys
TOP SYSTEM PLAY on the NY GIANTS +3.5
Today's NFL Picks
NY Giants vs. New England
The Giants look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. New York is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 5
Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST (1/26)
Game 101-102: NY Giants vs. New England (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 143.438; New England 141.965
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over
Northcoast newsletters:
Power Sweep Forecast - Giants/NE OVER rating is a 2*
Power Plays Forecast - Patriots 27 Giants 26 No Play
Scouts Inc: Giants-Patriots: 10 observations
Giants-Patriots: 10 observations
By Matt Williamson
Scouts Inc.
New York at New EnglandWhen: 6:29 PM ET
Watch: NBC
Scouts Inc. Position AdvantageQBRBWROLDLLBDBSTCoach
After breaking down film of both teams, Scouts Inc. offers 10 things to watch in Super Bowl XLVI at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
1. Deal with all the big-game hype: Both the conference championship games should have gone to overtime. Only one did, but needless to say both these teams had serious battles on their hands to advance this far. This is Bill Belichick and Tom Brady's fifth Super Bowl appearance -- and that head coach/quarterback pairing has the most postseason wins of any in history. Brady is chasing his fourth Super Bowl ring. Don't expect either franchise to flinch under the white-hot lights of the Super Bowl. The Patriots have not lost since Week 9, which just happened to be against the Giants. Meanwhile, New York has won five straight elimination games and is clearly peaking in all facets at the right time.
2. Get to Brady: This is what everyone will be talking about most for this game. Can the Giants' fantastic defensive line dominate the game and derail New England's fantastic passing attack? New England features a pair of Pro Bowl guards and is talented at tackle. Plus, Brady moves very well in the pocket, gets the ball out quickly and anticipates the rush extremely well. But Brady's biggest weakness might be dealing with a very strong interior pass rush. Don't expect the Giants to blitz much at all in this game, because their front four should be explosive and all that New England can handle on a fast surface in a controlled environment. New York has a fine group of defensive tackles, but it is the ends who are truly special -- and could be the difference. It will be interesting to see what offensive personnel packages the Patriots employ, because if they go too pass-oriented, they will often have to deal with the Giants' Four Aces package of four great defensive ends on the line. Also, when these teams met in Week 9, the Pats often used extra offensive linemen, which is a tactic they could employ again.
3. Stay balanced: A Tom Coughlin staple is to show excellent offensive balance. As tempting as it might become to throw a high percentage of the time, that is unlikely to happen unless the Giants fall behind by a large deficit. Led by Vince Wilfork, the interior of New England's defensive line has played well of late, and running up the middle has become a difficult endeavor against the Patriots, who did quite well keeping Ray Rice under wraps in the AFC Championship Game. Ahmad Bradshaw is an extremely important member of the Giants' offense. He runs with great conviction and is a versatile back who can run inside or out and catch the football and is good in protection. Bradshaw was inactive for the Week 9 contest.
4. Limit New England's tight ends: The pairing of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez is simply outstanding. There is just no way around that. Gronkowski is the total package as a two-way tight end and does some of his best work in the red zone. Hernandez can line up all over the formation and is just superb as a receiver. The Giants allowed two big plays for touchdowns to Vernon Davis in their last game and have allowed productive days for opposing tight ends during the regular season. They often utilize their Big Nickel package, even on early downs, with two cornerbacks and three safeties. Also, LB Michael Boley is a very good second-level coverage player. Any way you cut it, the combination of Gronkowski and Hernandez is a nightmare for every defense that New England faces. It does have to be noted that Gronkowski suffered an ankle injury against Baltimore. That needs to be monitored.
5. Matchup to watch: Giants C David Baas versus Patriots NT Vince Wilfork: While Wilfork was the best player on the field in the AFC Championship Game, Baas was in and out of the lineup in the NFC Championship Game as he battled injury. Baas, and the guards flanking him, better be at the very top of his game in the Super Bowl. Wilfork will play anywhere on the interior in the Patriots' 4-3. Not only can Wilfork utterly dominate and eat up blockers in the run game, while freeing up LBs Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes to get to the ball carrier, but Wilfork can also use quickness to penetrate and make plays in the backfield versus the run. Wilfork doesn't have a wide variety of pass-rush moves, but he has been very effective of late with his bull rush. Even if Baas knows the bull rush is coming, that doesn't mean he can stop it, as Wilfork is just an amazing combination of sheer bulk, power and leverage.
6. Slow down New York's weaponry: The Patriots should prepare to play a high number of snaps against the Giants' three-wide receiver package. New York will test the questionable depth of New England's secondary with three very skilled wideouts. The Patriots allow a lot of production through the air and it is wide receivers who have done most of the damage. Eli Manning spreads the ball around very effectively. He has been fantastic in the playoffs, with great clutch play and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8-to-1. After Hakeem Nicks injured his shoulder, Manning went to Victor Cruz over and over in the NFC Championship Game. Cruz had 125 receiving yards in the first half of that game. Nicks was inactive when these teams met during the regular season, but he could present all kinds of matchup problems for the Patriots' corners. It would be a mistake to overlook what Mario Manningham brings to the table, too, and Manningham should see many matchups to his liking. This is a big-play offense, and New England gives up far too many long passes. Hooking up on a few deep balls could be the difference in this game in New York's favor. Still, the Patriots' pass defense has improved dramatically since earlier in the season. The Patriots also need to be very aware of the Giants' play-action attack, which Manning executes very well.
7. Get after Eli: Manning was sacked six times in the NFC Championship against a fantastic San Francisco pass rush, but before that game the Giants' protection was doing a fine job compared to earlier in the season. Manning has great pocket presence and movement skills. He isn't easy to sack and will stand in the face of the rush until the last instant to deliver the football. The Patriots are getting a consistent push with their massive interior defensive linemen, and the edge-rushers, Mark Anderson and Rob Ninkovich, are better at getting after the passer than often given credit for. Belichick is sure to mix in plenty of blitzes as well, but confusing Manning is a difficult endeavor. The Patriots have eight sacks in their two playoff games but were unable to sack Manning when they met during the regular season.
8. Control the tempo: The Giants are sure to see a lot of New England's no-huddle attack. Brady runs this style of offense extremely well. By doing so, the defense can't substitute personnel. If Brady finds a weakness -- which is very easy to do with the offensive personnel he has at his disposal -- he can consistently find favorable matchups. Brady is a master at controlling the flow of the game. He will speed things up if he feels the defense is on its heels or fatigued and can slow it down if that is what is best for his teammates. In their two playoff wins, the Patriots' running game has been especially productive out of the no-huddle attack.
9. Get a ground game going: New England is often considered an elite passing offense that isn't real effective on the ground. That is a misnomer. And the best way to attack a Giants defense that allowed 5.4 yards per carry in the NFC Championship is on the ground. The Patriots controlled the line of scrimmage for most of the day against the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, and it was the reliable BenJarvus Green-Ellis who reaped the benefits. Green-Ellis gets what is blocked, plus a little more, but he isn't a big-play threat. Green-Ellis' powerful running style and ball security could be very valuable in this matchup. New England will utilize a multitude of ball carriers, though, including Danny Woodhead, who is as much a slot receiver as he is running back. Stevan Ridley is the wild card in this backfield. The most talented of these three as a pure runner, Ridley just isn't as established as Green-Ellis to be the lead ball carrier. Opposing running backs are doing a fair amount of damage against New York as receivers. The Patriots also have recently added a new wrinkle to their running game by handing the ball to Hernandez. The beauty of this tactic is that they don't have a running back on the field in these instances, so based just on personnel, the defense is not expecting run.
10. Matchup to watch: Patriots WR Wes Welker versus Giants CB Corey Webster:Webster is clearly the Giants' top cover man. He totally eliminated Michael Crabtree from the equation in the NFC Championship Game. New York could employ him against Welker, often in the slot, or Deion Branch on the perimeter. Welker is more important to the Patriots' offense, though, and New England doesn't really have a true deep threat at wide receiver. Welker is a real handful for everyone he faces, especially from the slot, where he is a master of option routes and reading defenses on the fly. Somewhat surprisingly, though, Welker did have quite a few drops this season. Still, he caught nine balls for 136 yards when these teams met in Week 9.
Prediction
New York 28
New England 24