Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

PB: The Weekend Edition, NBA and all that

Thread Starter PB: The Weekend Edition, NBA and all that
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12843
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

Point Blank – May 18, 2017

The Weekend Edition, NBA and all that…Has the magic worn off for Danny Duffy…

I will be doing things a bit differently the next couple of days because of a travel cycle, opening a general “Weekend Edition” now, and then adding bits and pieces as events in the sporting world, and in particular the NBA playoffs, unfold. Today I will set up the talking points per usual, but they will also be re-visited over the course of the weekend, with updates both in the on-going thread, and posted back into the original take.

With so many bits and pieces coming up this is an ideal time to plug the jukebox in for some background, and the focus on the spring/summer weekends will be some extended pieces that can get you through multiple topics. There has been a request from regular poster “Champthinks” for some Joe Grushecky, who has found his way into this spot every now and then, so let’s go to one of Rock and Roll’s most under-rated statesmen and some of the best musicians Pittsburgh has to offer, from the WDVE “Stones for Children” benefit at the Rex Theatre in 2016 -

(And yes, there will be some Chris Cornell/Soundgarden coming up soon, likely next week.)

CLEVELAND/BOSTON – Is there anything Brad Stevens can do to prevent another Déjà vu (there is only so much that one day in the weight room can accomplish)

There was a lot of focus on the Rust vs. Rhythm aspect of the series opener on Wednesday that the television screen looked even larger at tipoff, with a heightened focus to see if some In-Running opportunities unfold. And not all that long into the game I had to hit the info button on the remote control, and make sure what I was seeing was the live game, not a re-run.

I put a comment into the Wednesday thread not too long after that because for all of the various schedule elements in play, the first half of Game #1 looked eerily similar to the opening salvo when these two teams met a little over a month ago on the same court. That becomes the starting point in putting the pieces together because it may not be Game #2 of a playoff series, but instead Game #3. And the thread comment of LeBron James and the Cavaliers treating the Celtics interior defense like it wasn’t even there sets the stage.

  

On April 5 these teams tipped off in Boston in what was essentially a playoff game, because the Eastern Conference home court advantage was at stake. To show how much perceptions have changed since then, the Celtics closed at -4 that night. Yet in a game that was seemingly matching up two even teams, one getting the edge for being at home, there was an early Cleveland knockout punch delivered, and it was over by halftime. Which is what we saw again last night. Take a look at how similar the two games were:

                    Score          Reb
April 5        Cle 57-42   Cle 33-19
Game #1   Cle 61-39   Cle 28-14

That would combine to a full game count of 118-81, with a 61-33 rebounding margin. And as dominating as that may appear, consider that the Cavaliers only made 6-28 beyond the arc over those 48 minutes. There is more –

                  Min            +/-
James      41:28         +44

LeBron scored more than a point-per-minute (42) in the opening half of those games, with 12 rebounds, seven assists, and only one turnover. And how about this for a different take on the first half rebounding mismatch –

                            Min         Reb
Kevin Love         18:03        20
Boston starters  161:14       23

In general Cleveland is not an overly imposing team in terms of physical play, and in particular the Cavs don’t have a lot of depth around the basket. But the Celtics have looked like they are in a fight two weight classes above where they belong in these last two games. I like Brad Stevens as a tactician, but this is something that doesn’t get solved with X’s and O’s; instead his front-court has to play with more toughness. That is not a specialty for this bunch; they just can’t go out on the Thursday practice court and get tougher.

GOLDEN STATE/SAN ANTONIO – Assuming a healthy Kawhi, is this line adjustment proper

I did put some San Antonio +6.5 in pocket when that was available, on the assumption that there will be a healthy Kawhi Leonard on Saturday. I believe at the time there was a pure value component in play, but since then have also liked some of the things that I have heard coming from the Spurs side of the equation, which means the chance to back a team with a lot of pride at a time that their collective egos will be taking a beating for a few days from Gregg Popovich.

I’ll start with the value component. There is simply no way to solve the riddle of what would have happened in Sunday’s opener had Leonard not been injured; while logic would dictate that the Warriors were going to play better in the second half and close the margin, the game flow when Leonard left was such that a Golden State win would have been an extreme long-shot. So based on a closing line of -10 in that game, what would the proper plateau have been for these teams to play in San Antonio? Sure as hell not -6.5. The fact that the sports books opened it there meant that Tuesday’s Game #2 pointspread and outcome carried some influence, which I do not believe they should have – I don’t even have that box score in the database, the numbers of little use in terms of predicting any future outcomes.

But while the score and statistics may be useless, the impact they had on Pops is not - “I'm disappointed. The only way I can process this is, I think it’s not about O's and X's or rebounds or turnovers or anything like that. I think we've maybe felt it too much, Kawhi being gone, in the sense that I don't think -- as I watched -- I don't think they believed. And you have to believe. I don't think as a group they really did, which means probably a little bit feeling sorry for themselves psychologically, subconsciously, whatever psycho-babble word you want to use. That's the way I process it. I don't think they started the game with a belief.  And it showed in the lack of edge, intensity, grunts, all that sort of thing. That was disappointing.”

For another team at another time, getting back up off of the mat would be difficult. But this is a veteran bunch that tends to do the right thing in practice just about every day, focusing on the small details that mean so much. It is most unlikely that one blowout loss takes them out of that routine. And we may see a few fires get lit across the board, like the spark Popovich is looking for from LaMarcus Aldridge –

“LaMarcus has to score for us. He can't be timid. He turned down shots in the first quarter. He can’t do it. You've got to score.  Scoring has to come from someplace. I think he’s got a major responsibility in Game 3 to come out and get something done. Whether it’s for himself or teammates. They come after him, to find somebody, take good shots. He's got to do it. No doubt about.”

  

From Aldridge - “I took the wrong approach. I thought I would come out and move the ball, but I ended up taking myself out of rhythm and out of the flow of the game…I kind of got lost in the flow of just standing around.”

Yes, the Warriors are special, but I believe just about all of that was accounted for at the price point, which means +6 or better brings some value.

As for that other fun dynamic in play, we have one more 0-2 Home Team First Half scenario coming up, one sports book operator only half-joking that that prop had won “17 million times in a row”. It isn’t that extreme but it is one of the stronger patterns in recent years in terms of attracting the market, so look at the adjustments – I see Golden State -1.5 -115 and -2 out there this morning, rather clear statements by shop owners anticipating another deluge.

(Saturday AM update - no Kawhi Leonard for Game #3, so my early investment has been washed out, losing a little big, and there are no Spurs notions unless the line really takes a leap over the course of the day).

Item: Danny Duffy goes under the microscope

Duffy was a feature topic here on a couple of occasions, and was rather good for the pocket, last season. I am not seeing the same stuff from him this time, which means time to take a deeper look.

For a quick tour, Duffy opened the 2016 season in the Kansas City bullpen, several seasons of inconsistency having dropped him from a starter’s role. It may have created a psychological spark, but there were also a couple of baseball realities – instead of having to pace himself as a starter, Duffy could be much more aggressive out of the ‘pen, and he also began getting much more comfortable working form the stretch.

Some good showings put him back into the rotation, and he became a major money maker, working from the stretch full time because it brought him better command, without any loss in velocity. Duffy finished the season with a career high in K% and a career low in BB%, all the while being priced cheaply in a marketplace more tied to his past patterns. Now he has opened 2017 with a 3.38 ERA, even better than in 2016, but be careful with that -

          ERA  xFIP
2016  3.51  3.79
2017  3.38  4.70

I’ll get to xFIP in a moment, but here is the cause for concern – Duffy’s strikeout and walk rates have taken a significant decline, and it can be attached to the way the radar guns are tracking his average fast-ball -

           K%  BB% MPH
2016  25.7  5.8    94.9
2017  16.7  8.1    93.0

 

So how can this happen, and a pitcher have a lower ERA? xFIP is the best category to explain it, because it normalizes home runs to league average. That can be meaningful in short samples, when a pitcher has his pendulum get stretched too far in either direction. What Duffy has been surviving off of so far is a ratio of fly balls ending up far more in the gloves of outfielders, instead of the hands of fans in the seats -

        HR/FB%
2016  13.0
2017   3.6

There are 95 pitchers that have worked at least 40 innings so far, and only Jesse Hahn and Jason Vargas have a lower rate than Duffy, all the while the MLB average is at 13.0.

I don’t have a way to get in play today, looking for a Yankees Team Total of “4” that the early markets are not offering, but I will continue to chart Duffy closely for potential opportunities in the games ahead.

Item: And coming up Saturday

Also a reminder that through the MLB summer regular poster "Pappahoops" from Matchup Center will be coming in on Saturday mornings with a "Game of the Day", showcasing some of the various edges that can be found across the diamonds. Those folks do some outstanding work, and we appreciate them coming in to share with us here.

In the Sights, Friday MLB…

This one has tipped a bit over the edge of the value meter, with the planned “buy” being at -130 or less, but because the talking points matter it is worth some discussion, so let’s call it #961 Arizona (10:10 Eastern) still good for about a half of a unit at -140 or less. There won’t be any bargains playing against Jered Weaver anymore, but the gap between pitchers and teams still allows for this with one key notion in play – Weaver may be even worse than his abysmal bottom line (6.05 ERA, 7.31 FIP, Padres are 0-8 in his starts) shows.

Here is the gist – for as dismal as his 2017 season has been, Weaver opened with the best of it, getting a “first look” advantage against many of the hitters as he moves over to the National League, and also a soft opening slate – of the 98 pitchers that have thrown 40 innings or more, his DBF is #80. Yet the sad numbers are all he could produce, so what happens when a team gets a second look? He lost 6-2 vs. the Diamondbacks on the road earlier, allowing a pair of home runs to Chris Owings and also one to Yasmany Tomas, while only getting one strikeout of the 24 batters he faced.

Want to see the “Anatomy of a Decline”?

                K%   HR/FB%
2014      19.0      8.9
2015      13.5      9.9
2016      13.4    12.7
2017      12.6    26.4

Weaver has survived fly balls in West Coast ballparks throughout his career, via a .273 BABIP, but he allows too much contact these days, and even on the first look this season hitters were squaring the ball up quite well.

Arizona brings a lot of team momentum, and there is plenty to like form Taijuan Walker’s peripherals. While I bemoan having to sweat Fernando Rodney in the latter stages, the entire D’Backs bullpen is fresh, so I will opt for full game instead of first half, in order to find a better price point.

 

The complete Point Blank Archive

@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12843
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

OK guys, we've got a little different schedule this weekend because of a travel cycle - this will be the full thread, taking us up to Game #3 of Cavalers/Celtics on Sunday night (even though I will be airborne during that one). I will be out of contact for most of Thursday (perhaps all, airport WiFi being the frustration that it can be), but then once back on the ground will be on-line most of the way throughout the weekend.

There will be a lot going on across both the NBA Playoffs and the MLB Diamonds, so fresh material will be both added to the original lead as well as the on-going thread throughout. And there will be an appearance from Pappahoops again on Saturday morning with a Matchup Center "Game of the Day", to get some good baseball discussions going.

sekerkr
Joined: 09/28/2016
Posts: 69
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Hi Dave, now that the regular season is over do you have any more defensive stats on Isaiah Thomas? You wrote a forum about how bad he was midway through the season, I was curious how his numbers ended up. Curious if they stayed as bad as they were.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12843
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sekerkr

Hi Dave, now that the regular season is over do you have any more defensive stats on Isaiah Thomas? You wrote a forum about how bad he was midway through the season, I was curious how his numbers ended up. Curious if they stayed as bad as they were.

While defensive measurements are not as precise as we would all like them to be, of the 468 players tracked by Real +/-, Thomas comes in at an ignoble #468 (for those that need/want to know, Doug McDermott was #467 and Jordan Clarkson #466). The Cavaliers scored at a 130.0 PP100 when Thomas was on the court last night.

dmyers
Joined: 08/24/2015
Posts: 23
Practice Squad
Not Ranked

Hey Dave,

I missed the boat when it came to value on the GS to win the championship, as I've been waiting for a -250 or better to appear again. However, I'm intrigued by the NBA Finals MVP numbers and want to get your opinion on Durant at +200. If GS wins the series, I think the only 2 real chances for MVP come from Durant or Steph (maybe Green has an outside chance I guess) and I think Durant seems more likely as his overall game is ahead of Curry right now. My main concern is that Cleveland has better defensive options for Durant than they do for Curry. What do you think?

newprodigy
Joined: 06/14/2016
Posts: 261
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Hello Mr. M , I know you've said there just wasn't enough time in the day to follow the NHL, but if you happen to get a chance to watch the Predators tonight, I think you'll see they have something speacil brewing down there in Nashville. A great home ice advantage that nobody talks about and besides Johansson,  a no name team that bring a level of grit and grind that I believe will put them in a good position to slow down either Ottawa or Pitt.

Champthinks
Joined: 05/16/2016
Posts: 1309
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

On music

East Carson ..Joe G ..at his finest and great video ..in yesterdays PB.  .Lebron James quality

Today's Joe Grushecky ...not his own stuff and the supporting band members and whole sound .???..Kevin Love quality

Thank u Dave for East Carson in PB yesterday

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB100100.00113.00
Champthinks
Joined: 05/16/2016
Posts: 1309
Pro Draft Prospect
Not Ranked

Dave

from a pure PR / the line stand point  going into game 1 ..u made the case for Spurs line inflated take the points ..correct ? And I agree but on the other game

Now I believe ur 2 line making freinds and the opening line in the Cavs game all would fall into the same category of fave being inflated at cavs +5.5 now at most books.

Ask ur freinds if Cavs 5.5 on neutral was within .5 of their number when they were setting game 1 ..if so and I assume correct ..if we give Celts 3 for home ..and O for bounce that makes cavs -2.5 or -3 .

Or are the Celts so physically weak ...something like last years Maryland football team..that we must Jerk our established PRs drastically ? Surely u must agree the Celts were in a rare triple depletion state ...Emotionally. Physicaly and rest deprived ..Meaning they have an excuse . or maybe Lebron is so good at turning it on once The Real season starts we move cavs 2.5 points now and shorten our line therefore between Cavs and Gsw ??

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB100100.00113.00
damonte
Joined: 03/31/2010
Posts: 310
Jr. College
Not Ranked

Am curious to see how the Marlin/Dodger series plays out.        LA got rid of Mattingly following the 2015 season, and Marlins swept Dodgers in a 4 game series last year in LA.   I have to believe he has this series circled once again.  I'm aware this "revenge" setting is more of a football angle, but I'd certainly by wary of laying the heavy lumber on Dodgers this series.

ajsuited15
Joined: 02/17/2015
Posts: 251
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Dave you hit the nail on the head about fantasy baseball ruining some of the edges on certain under the radar starting pitchers which would have been good for up to about 5 starts in years past before Vegas would catch-up berrios of minny was good for one start before he got the lungs bet out of him for his 2nd start the berrios buffet which I was hoping to ride for awhile is already gone.

Rate This
  • 93 replies
  • 8 subscribers
  • Posted7 days ago