Point Blank – May 8, 2017
Will the Jazz play a different 0-3 melody…There has been plenty of pitching Black Magic from Santana so far (and some of it won’t last)…
After more than a full week of the second round of the NBA playoffs close-game drama continues to be elusive – outside of that memorable Wizards/Celtics OT affair the only later mysteries have been pointspread-related, and there have not been all that many of those.
The weekend cycle did bring reasons for the guys behind the counter to wince a bit, Toronto on Friday and Utah on Saturday continuing the remarkable run of teams down 0-2 at home to cover the First Half line for Game #3, and those results took place despite major adjustments to the lines (you could have filled out a Warriors First Half ticket at -1 on Saturday, despite the game line closing -6.5/-7). And then there was another headache that the operators are adjusting for, yet having to take on the wheelbarrows anyway – the 0-3 team to bow out rather ungracefully. In this instance there was a punishment of opening Cleveland a pinch too short for Game #5, some of the shops beginning at -5.5, and then watching a -6.5 to -7 ping-pong yesterday, a cycle in which most folks that wanted the Cavaliers could have locked in a win, and most backing the Raptors returning to the windows for a refund.
We begin Monday with another of those 3-0 settings, but a considerable part of the handicapping process is that this one may not fit the pattern.
GOLDEN STATE/UTAH – Might we hear a little different music from the Jazz than we would from other teams in this setting
Instead of reducing the focus to one take, which has been the case throughout the playoffs, since Warriors/Jazz are the only game in town on the Monday hardwoods there are multiple factors that will come into play, especially since they also combine to lead to a ticket.
First is the notion that I don’t expect Utah to bring the usual 0-3 attitude, one that has become common across the league, and accepted by the marketplace. It is a rather simple notion – a team down 0-3 knows that they are overmatched and not going to win the series, and often it leads to a “pack your bags before tipoff” effort in game #4. A loss means vacation begins immediately afterwards, while a win just entails going to the court of the superior team to get eliminated in Game #5 anyway, all the while the superior team wants to get the series over with to create some down time before the next round.
This pattern is not lost on the oddsmakers, however, because of the success rate, and the amount of $$$ that shows at the windows for it these days, even if Cleveland/Toronto Game #4 was a bit short, although the prospects of Kyle Lowry potentially playing were a part of that. Hence the Warriors were opened at -8 for Game #4, after it was a -5.5 opener/-6.5 closer for Game #3. And there is a part of my handicapping consciousness that tells me that Quin Snyder and the Jazz will bring more than most teams down 0-3, which means the opportunity to grab a +9 over the course of the day would ordinarily make the shopping list, though I will be taking a different path.
One of the prime storylines developed here across this series is that the Jazz attitude from the opening tipoff has been a little different, knowing that they had little chance to win, but with this being a young and developing core outside of Diaw/Johnson, there was a chance to use these matchups as development for the future, much like many college football teams approach a bowl game. Since there wasn’t ever much notion of winning there may be a far lesser letdown for Game #4, and instead we might see the Jazz play even harder than on Saturday, since winning a single game would be an accomplishment. This is one bunch that might relish going back to Oracle Arena for Wednesday.
Let’s explore the mindsets, starting with Snyder – “We can’t get to Game #5 until you play Game #4. It's a chance to break through or the season's over. If we're able to do that, we'll turn our attention to the next game. Until we can do that, there's no sense looking forward. Just stay completely present."
Then to some of the floor leaders, like Gordon Hayward, after the Jazz were in the hunt for a long time on Saturday - "It's definitely encouraging. From where we were Game 1 to where we are tonight, you can see signs of improvement." And Rudy Gobert - "I think we've been getting better every game. It's just those last seven minutes when we let them take over the game. I think we've gotten better and we've got to build around what we've done and keep the same attitude, and keep competing, and just believe in ourselves. I think we'll be fine."
Saturday’s effort might have been enough to get a win if not for Kevin Durant, who had 38 points and 13 rebounds, and scored 11 points in the closing 24-12 Golden State run, after Utah had led 79-78 with 6:20 left.
But Durant also offers an expectation of tonight being competitive from the other locker room - "They don't quit. That's what I love about this team. They have a great coach. They play physical. They don't give up. They've got a great crowd as well so they're going to try to feed off of that. The series is far from over."
So why is there not a commitment to searching out Utah +9, or perhaps even biting off a lesser piece at +8.5? There is the awkward pendulum of the Steph Curry/Klay Thompson shooting in play, those two having gone 7-29 on Saturday night, including 3-15 from 3-point range (Draymond Green also contributed an 0-3 beyond the arc). You know part of the drill with that – if those two shot so poorly, and the Warrior still won by 11, there is a statement made about the relative balance of power. That duo will likely shoot better, and Thompson almost has to be more of a contributor than a rather stunning 39:00 in which he was 1-9 from the field, while only coming down with a lone rebound and not having a single assist.
So how to handle it? I am going to anticipate good energy from both sides, and much better marksmanship than in Game #3. While the dynamic Warrior guards were struggling so was most of the Utah team - t ake away Gobert’s 7-8 near the basket, and the Jazz were 23-69. It wasn’t that the two teams were sloppy with the ball on Saturday, with only 15 combined turnovers, but they shot just 41.6 percent.
My path will be #701 Warriors/Jazz Over (9:00 Eastern), with 206 available in the Monday morning trading, and value to 207. I believe the Jazz will come out and attack much more aggressively than the usual 0-3 participant, which brings energy to the game, but also for those Golden State stars to convert at a higher level than in Game #3. And I would not be surprised if it was close enough late for a little scrambling to take place, which can aid the cause.
Item: It was only a partial correction for Ervin Santana
The MLB weekend brought some fascinating case studies across the board, many of them which will find a spot on these pages across the days ahead, but there are few performers bringing more of a fascination than Ervin Santana. After getting out of the gate to a rather stunning 5-0/0.66, that despite there not being all that much of a change to the way he was throwing the ball from the past, it may look like his correction took place yesterday, when the Red Sox tagged him for four home runs in six innings. Yet that was only partially true, the magic carpet ride continued across a couple of key categories.
Let me set the base by comparing this season to last, both in terms of outcomes, and the rate stats -
W/L ERA K% BB% GB% SWS%
2016 7-11 3.38 19.9 7.1 42.6 10.0
2017 5-1 1.72 21.3 9.2 41.5 9.1
Santana’s profile has not changed all that much – he has slightly more strikeouts, yet has actually declined in the other three categories. So how does the run allowance shrink so much? Yesterday’s game was a microcosm – while the home runs do jump out, it is what happened with the other batters that continued an amazing opening to the season.
There are a couple of categories of baseball geometry that can greatly impact run prevention in the short-term, BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) and LOB% (the percentage of base-runners allowed that have not come around to score). There is some skill attached to BABIP, with fly ball pitchers scoring a little better, but while there is an on-going attempt to try to identify pitchers that are good in the clutch, in terms of stranding base-runners, long-term analysis shows the category to have a high degree of randomness.
How have these parts of the sport impacted Santana’s bottom line? To an extreme. Let’s compare the current rate to both his career norm, and what happened in 2016 –
BABIP LOB%
Career .283 73.0
2016 .285 74.1
2017 .132 98.0
It is a rather striking contrast. To put 2017 into even better perspective, let’s isolate Santana against the rest of MLB -
BABIP LOB%
MLB .289 73.0
Santana .132 98.0
The next closest pitcher in terms of BABIP is at .195, which shows how much of an outlier Santana is there, while the strand rate of Mike Fiers is a true marvel, a 98.5 percent despite working to an unholy 5.64 ERA anyway (Fiers has managed to consistently sweep the bases clean by allowing 14 home runs already).
In the Sights, Monday MLB…
I believe the Dodgers are positioned to play well tonight, and I continue to be impressed with what is coming from the left arm of Alex Wood. So with an underdog rate of return available for the path of #908 LA Dodgers Run Line (10:10 Eastern), it is a fit.
The Dodgers put a 4-2 home stand together before getting a day off on Thursday, then having a short trip to San Diego for a pair of Friday/Saturday blowouts by a combined 18-4, before Sunday’s rain-out was announced so early that they were home in time for dinner last evening. The hitters are naturally fresh, and the bullpen is well-set, including Kenley Jansen being used on Saturday to keep him from having too long of a layoff. And as has been the case for the last two seasons there remains that R/L offensive bias, which works into Trevor Williams, who is getting his first start (LAD at .773 OPS vs. right-handers so far, compared to .688 vs. lefties). The jury remains out as to whether Williams is ready for this role – over his last three relief appearances it has been seven walks vs. only two strikeouts.
There isn’t a lot of sex appeal towards Alex Wood in the marketplace but perhaps there should be. He is now up to over 500 MLB innings with a 3.35 ERA and 3.28 FIP, and when a left-hander does that there is usually more interest generated, but a 29-30 W/L across that span has helped keep a buzz from creating. But there may be something interesting happening over his past two seasons as a Dodger – across 85 innings it has been 9.9 K/9 and a 55.3 GB%. You know the drill – if a pitcher is averaging more than one strikeout per inning, and also getting over half of the contact to be on the ground, special things can happen. I’ll back Wood and a rested bullpen into a Pittsburgh offense that just doesn’t bring much to the table.
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