Point Blank – May 1, 2017
Game on – Can the Cavaliers guards guard…Can James Harden ignite the pace in San Antonio…Are there reasons to be concerned about Julio Teheran…
Tonight it begins getting “real” in the NBA Playoffs. While there has been a little drama in the first round and some interesting moments, the level of play has largely only been as good as it needed to be for the victors (Jazz/Clippers being one of the least distinguished seven-game opening series in memory). That changes now, with teams like Cleveland and San Antonio, each featuring players that have championship rings, now facing much greater challenges in the second round than they are accustomed to.
That means it is time to get to work, and as will be the case throughout the playoffs the focus will be on “The Game Inside the Game” format, looking at a key matchup aspect that will go a long way towards determining the scoreboard outcome.
TORONTO/CLEVELAND – Can the Cleveland guards guard?
Many of you can already project a bit of a leaning here – there has been discussion on these pages of Toronto futures since the All Star break, while potential Cleveland problems have also been highlighted rather regularly. There are two major components to the drama, the first being that the Raptors have a slew of defenders they have accumulated in recent seasons that will not stop LeBron James, but can at least get physical and attempt to wear him down. That will become a feature point, perhaps as early as the prelude to Game #2.
For the opener it is time to go to the heart of the matter in a series that brings a particular fascination, because you just don’t see this price range, Cleveland as high as -600 to win the series at several Nevada properties, when you have this kind of gap between the defenses -
Season Post-Break Round #1
Toronto 104.9 (8) 102.3 (4) 100.7 (2)
Cleveland 110.9 (22) 111.1 (29) 111.0 (13)
The Raptors were simply far better defensively for the full season, but I isolate the post-break period because that is when Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker came on board. To go a step further, which connects to defense, how about rebounding -
Season Post-Break Round #1
Toronto 50.7 (8) 52.6 (2) 52.4 (3)
Cleveland 49.7 (19) 48.9 (23) 48.6 (11)
Again note that the Raptors were better across the board(s), literally, and it increased with the current cast of characters. As for the playoff comparisons, naturally much of that comes down to who the opponent was, but in this instance it did not offer Toronto any advantage –
Season “O” Reb
Milwaukee 106.9 (13) 48.8 (24)
Indiana 106.2 (15) 48.7 (25)
So let’s get to the heart of the matter – can the Cavalier guards make the kind of stops a favorite in this price range would ordinarily be expected to make?
It is no secret where the Toronto points come from – the dynamic duo of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry combined to average 49.7 ppg this season, and are two of the best one-on-one scorers at their positions in the NBA. What is the single biggest Cleveland weakness? A combination of both lacking good one-on-one defenders, and not having much rim protection. The Cavs were tied for #25 in the NBA in blocked shots. What happens when you combine sub-par one-on-one guardsman and a lack of size and depth around the basket? That #22 in overall defense.
This time the weakness becomes even more pronounced, because the Raptors get so many points from both the #1 and #2 positions. The usual Cleveland plan is to hide Kyrie Irving’s defense by putting him on the weakest of the opposing #1/#2, but that can’t be done here – he becomes the main option against Lowry because there can be little thought of placing him against DeRozan. Of the point guards that averaged at least 25 minutes per game, the only players to finish below Irving on real +/- defense were Derrick Rose, Zach LaVine, Emmanuel Muday, DeAngelo Russell, Dennis Schroeder, Reggie Jackson and Isaiah Thomas.
That then leaves J.R. Smith on DeRozan, and while Smith will scrap hard on defense, he is in his 13th NBA season, and will have a fight on his hands to keep up with DeRozan. It will be LeBron James on DeRozan at crunch time.
Behind Smith/Irving there is a competent defender to go to in Iman Shumpert, but what about Kyle Korver and Deron Williams? Those two bring weaknesses on that end of the court, and in fact spotting minutes for Korver will be a challenge for Tyronn Lue – does Dwane Casey tweak his rotations to have DeRozan back on the court any time that Korver checks in?
Yes, Cleveland got through this opponent in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2016, but it was a different matchup. Lowry/DeRozan played 791 more regular season minutes than this time around, and had also been through grueling seven-game playoff series vs. Indiana and Miami leading up to the Cleveland matchup. The two key cogs were simply gassed. That is not the case now.
I believe there is a perception/reality split here that has the price point a tick above how competitive I believe it will turn out to be. That calls for some involvement in the opener, with #723 Toronto (7:05 Eastern) going into pocket at a full +7 or better, a number that a shopper should be able to find over the course of the day.
HOUSTON/SAN ANTONIO – The pulse will be about the pace
In many ways this series mirrors Toronto/Cleveland in that we have an underdog that will get out and aggressively attack the favorite, but in this instance it is also the rarity of the seemingly inferior team wanting to increase the possession count as much as possible. This may lead to some high drama on the court, but the drama for the handicapper begins long before then, knowing that we all have to sort through this -
Regular Season: Pace Defense
Houston 102.5 (#3) 111.8 (#18)
San Antonio 96.4 (#27) 100.9 (#1)
Those are substantial gaps, and yes the pace does connect to the defense. Mike D’Antonio did not mind giving up the occasional bad shot if it meant keeping the game at a fast pace, knowing that he has the shooters and the depth to eventually out-score any team west of the Bay Area in an uptempo affair. As for the Spurs, playing at a grinder’s pace on offense means balancing the floor well and being able to consistently get back and set the defense. And what happens when a team with outstanding size and fundamentals gets back and gets set? Yep, you finish #1 in the NBA.
There are many dynamics in play here. A key notion in evaluating the Houston defense is that there is a higher level of efficiency than the numbers show because the nature of the Rocket tempo does leave some matador situations. Let’s go to D’Antonio on that front - "We've had parts of it we've done well. We've had stops on demand. Any time you win 55 games, and we should have won more, and have a great road record, you've already played defense. You can. You have that possibility. We've shown it.”
Houston may have to show some grit on defense because that will be a key to establishing some pace – you need to make stops in order to get out and run. There is also a major pace element that will fall on the shoulders of James Harden, and I believe it is important to understand his role specifically in terms of pace first, and then production.
Harden faces a challenge because the Spurs can throw two of the NBA’s best defenders at their positions at him, Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green. Those defenders can impact him two ways – obviously in terms of the production that gets seen in the box scores, but also that in just slowing the Houston offense down a couple of seconds per possession, they are helping to establish the game flow that Gregg Popovich would prefer.
While I do believe that San Antonio will create some frustrating sequences for the Rockets through the game pace, I also do not believe the markets have the balance of power between these teams set properly. That will put #725 Houston (9:35) in pocket at +6 or more. These teams played four intense games during the regular season, three of them decided by two points, and the other a Spurs win by six. The Rockets showed enough commitment to defense and rebounding in the Oklahoma City series to bring an element of trust; while they won’t be great in those aspects, at this price point they don’t have to be, and they will challenge Pops and his defensive rotations by forcing LaMarcus Aldridge/David Lee/Pau Gasol/Dewayne Dedmon into pick-and-rolls far from the basket, and their usual comfort zones.
Item: Using the “rate charts” for your early MLB pitcher tracking (and should there be concerns about Julio Teheran)
Let’s tuck in some general baseball here, a particular concept that should have been a lead topic in April, but the NBA has been commanding so much of the attention now that the integrity level has returned at playoff time.
One of the concepts I have noted several times in the forum threads are a series of prime statistics that I pay extra attention to in charting each pitcher at the beginning of a new season. As noted here so often, baseball outcomes owe much to a random geometry in the short term, so there is a constant battle to determine what results are from merit, and what could be attributed to that randomness. What I end up with are four base stats that reflect on how the pitcher is throwing the ball, categories not subject to bad bounces –
K%
BB%
GB%
SWS%
Note that sometimes I will refer to K/9 and BB/9 instead of the percentages, because they are easier for most folks to relate to, but the percentages bring back a better count. And I also do use O-Swing% as a fifth factor, but that does need to be taken with a grain of salt because there is some human judgment in the scoring of the category. For now I will leave it mostly off to the side.
These four categories cover the gamut of how a baseball is being thrown – does the pitcher have command; how difficult is he to make contact against; and when that contact is made, what is the ratio of balls hit on the ground vs. in the air. Naturally the key in terms of getting ahead of the marketplace is to look for those that are showing a deviation across multiple categories when you measure them back towards the previous season, and the course of their career.
Let’s go to tonight’s board and use Julio Teheran as an example of someone that has put up some flags. There are no sparks going off anywhere, with his 7-10/3.21 of 2016 now sitting at a comparable 2-1/3.38, but here is where the concern comes from -
K% BB% GB% SWS%
Career 20.9 6.7 37.2 10.4
2016 22.0 5.4 39.1 10.3
2017 17.6 12.0 33.3 7.8
Teheran is pretty far off of both his career, and his 2016 numbers, so far. How is he getting away with it? A lot of fly balls being caught – if we normalize his HR rate for league average, which xFIP does, it reads at 5.28, nearly two full runs above ER.
Is there something to see here? Might it be attributed to Teheran pitching for Colombia in the World Baseball Classic, and having his usual spring flow disrupted? I have the microscope out, and will be looking for answers this evening.
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