Point Blank – April 19, 2017
Do the Thunder have any lightning (to rebound from Game #1, they literally have to rebound)…It is time for a “why not” bet in Petco…
Tuesday saw an active NBA market because a large swath of the recreational betting audience had a dream scenario – three higher-seeded favorites playing off of a loss, the opportunity to put Zig Zag into play across the board. Parlays aweigh!
That all worked out rather well for the guys behind the counter – except for those that got in early on the Clippers there were a multitude of tickets shredded on the favorites, although the Raptors did tantalize their backers a bit when up by 13 in the fourth quarter. As for Bulls/Celtics, the #8 seed has simply been the better team than the #1, which will make the market behaviors for Game #3 of that series rather intriguing to chart. In going from Boston -7.5 at the close last night, to Chicago -2 for Friday, there has not been a hint of Zig Zag anticipation.
Now let’s get to the Wednesday board, where a pair of teams down 1-0 have work to do, and a third must fill out the contractual obligations of playing until a series is officially over. I will hold to “The Game Inside the Game” format throughout the playoffs, looking at one key matchup element for each game that is integral to projecting the scoreboard outcomes.
ATLANTA/WASHINGTON – Mike Budenholzer wants to slow the Wizards down; can his team make it happen
In setting up Game #1 of this series last Friday, one of the prime notions was focusing in on the Wizards getting the opportunity to freshen up a bit, after a strenuous workload for the key cogs across much of the season, and in particular what that might mean to John Wall, in his matchup against the defensively-challenged Dennis Schroeder. Wall went off for 32 points, including 15 in a decisive third-quarter that turned the tide of the game, and plus 14 assists, and the Wizards rolled to 121 points at 109.1 PP100. They did that at a 103.8 possession clip, which is nearly four full trips more than their regular season average.
That was not the flow that Mike Budenholzer wanted to get caught up in - “The thing that stood out the most was what we thought was most important coming into the series which is transition defense. We’ve got to be better. It’s got to be the priority and the emphasis. There are lots of other areas where we can improve and get better but if we don’t get better there … “
The question is whether or not they can do it. While Dwight Howard is past-peak, he still rated the #5 defensive center on Real +/- of those that played at least 25 minutes per game at the position, while Paul Millsap was #4 at power forward, major parts of why the Hawks were the #4 defensive team in the league this season. But that is based on getting back and getting set. That didn’t happen enough for the Atlanta defense on Sunday, when Wall was consistently able to beat them down the floor.
Settings in which it is a favorite looking to slow tempo can be ideal for the handicapper; the better team naturally having more ability to be in control of the proceedings. Are the Hawks good enough to get the flow they want? There is some Over money showing in the early Wednesday trading, with the full game as high as 212.5; if that continues to rise I will take a flyer on the First Quarter Under. I don’t trust Atlanta to be able to put the brakes on the Wizards over 48 minutes, but when a team has a focus on slowing things down they can often make it happen in the first quarter, when they are in contact on the scoreboard.
OKC/HOUSTON – For the Thunder to rebound the Thunder have to rebound; why was that so bad on Sunday
There were a lot of intriguing elements to the beat-down Houston administered to Oklahoma City in the series opener, and in particular it was not just Patrick Beverley being able to slow Russell Westbrook a bit, but the fact that he flat-out stoned him in that key matchup, so much so that his workload ended up being much less than anticipated –
Min FG Pts Reb Ast TO +/-
Westbrook 34:01 6-23 22 11 7 9 -25
Beverley 25:59 8-13 21 10 3 2 +18
That matchup will not come close to being so one-sided again, but as part of Beverley being so energized look at the rebound count, which is rather remarkable for his position over that amount of court time. It was part of a 56-41 domination by the Rockets on the boards, something that was entirely unexpected, and it generated a stunning 31-4 advantage in second-chance points.
OKC was the #1 rebounding team in the NBA this season, with Houston at #14. In four regular-season matchups it was a +7 to the Thunder. There isn’t anything about the size or athleticism that call for what happened on Sunday, but there was a major issue in the Thunder playing defense – they were pick-and-rolled to death on Sunday, which not only left openings for shooters, but also meant OKC players unable to establish rebounding position as well.
Some of that can be corrected, though not all. There has been much written across the Sports Mediaverse about Billy Donovan being caught on camera mumbling about the defense of Enes Kanter (Donovan’s post-game take – “I'm not disputing that, that was said or not said. But I think to probably take three words on a whole conversation would be really, really hard to do, based on the conversation. I know one of the things we were talking about was in terms of different coverages. We can't play him in those coverages”), and finding a way to hide Kanter on defense is indeed difficult. But the flip side is having him out there enough to force the Rockets to have to guard him.
Donovan has had multiple days to do some tweaking, and while I don’t expect him to solve the matchup issues enough to turn the series, I don’t see Sunday’s outcome as being as being as definitive as the marketplace, which has now pushed Houston to -8 in the key precincts. At a full +8 I will have #703 Oklahoma City (8:00 Eastern) in pocket.
PORTLAND/GOLDEN STATE – If Lillard/McCollum did what they did, and the Blazers still lost by 12, then what
How humbling must it be for the Trail Blazers to see both Damian Lillard and C.J. McConnell on fire from the perimeter in the same game, knocking down 28-54 from the field, including 7-15 beyond the arc plus 12-13 at the free throw line, good for a combined 75 points, and yet have lost by a dozen anyway?
Throwing a curve into the Game #2 foundation is the prospect of Kevin Durant sitting out, a market stir from Golden State -15 to -13.5 and the Total from 220.5 to 219.5, taking place, and I don’t expect a clarification of his status until later in the day, the usual coaching notion of not wanting to let the opposition have those details until after the shootaround. There are also question marks about Shaun Livingston and Matt Barnes as well.
I have inclinations to the Portland Team Total Under, with the expectation that a Warriors defense that has a lot of pride will not approach this game as though they won by 12 on Sunday, but instead suffered a bit of an embarrassment on that end of the court. But with those personnel questions up in the air I won’t reach into pocket until later in the day, and perhaps not even until In-Running.
Item: On Las Vegas, the Raiders, and “third-and-11”
In addition to the MLB and NBA flow this week there is also a special edition of PB, a chance to go into some added detail from a comment I made in a recent piece in ESPN magazine. There was an attempt in the quote to portray a complex subject with as much brevity as possible, and it got misinterpreted by a few folks. For more on that, and in particular for anyone wondering why Las Vegas has offered up the largest stadium subsidy in U.S. history, you can go here.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
There is often a complex scenario of “why” questions that go into finding wagers that have an advantage, but some of the very best opportunities are those in which it is instead “why not”, and we have such a setting in San Diego tonight, which has me back in play on #959 Arizona (10:10 Eastern). This time for the full game, with as low as -117 out there in the morning trading, and value holding to -125.
In setting up a First Five Innings ticket to the Diamondbacks yesterday one of the keys noted from a value standpoint is that the Padres simply are who they are, what is now a 5-10 opening being close to the clip they will play at all season. I have rarely seen a team come into a campaign with less upside, and the markets may struggle in establishing a proper new rung at the bottom of the ladder. Hence staying in play against them is easy, especially with no particular fears of Jhoulys Chacin, who is wearing his fifth different uniform over the last four seasons, an indication of how the previous four organizations viewed his limited stuff.
The difference tonight in playing full game instead of first half is two-fold, first finding a better price point, and second being that while one of the last things I want to be doing with my late evenings is sweating a Fernando Rodney save (he is a perfect 5-5 in such opportunities despite hideous counts of 8.53 in ERA and 7.1 in BB/9), tonight an already non-descript Padre bullpen faces added limitations. Chacin is not an innings eater, and the San Diego relief corps will be without Zach Lee, Christian Betancourt and Craig Stammen, which might mean the D’Backs getting an opportunity to break the game far enough open that Rodney won’t be called on in the ninth (I will make the Run Line a part of the ticket if +145 or better shows).
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