Point Blank – April 11, 2017
It's 2017 and Drew Pomeranz is still in Fenway…If Shabazz went Shazam on the Spurs, what happens in the playoffs…
Part of the early-season focus here is getting dialed in on particular aspects of pitcher performances, looking for some of the how/why elements behind the numbers that will be in play, so that you can be able to anticipate their performance rhythms and be a step ahead of the marketplace reactions to them. Those that read faithfully across last season are probably expecting a Drew Pomeranz take today, and here it comes…
Item: Can Drew Pomeranz make it in Fenway
Pomeranz was a big story across the 2016 season on multiple occasions, though for entirely different reasons. First was the fact that he was getting so much command of his knuckle-curve that he could begin throwing it far more often, while also adding a cut-fastball that was close to being in the middle between the knuckle-curve and fastball in terms of velocity, which meant that opposing hitters were being forced to deal with three different speeds.
That new pitch combination did a couple of things – it made Pomeranz much more effective, which for the handicapper meant lowering the performance weight of his previous campaigns, which was a feature point here.
On the day that column was written Pomeranz sparkled again, and he went into the All Star break with a 2.47 ERA. That was enough to get the Red Sox interested, but that was also leading to an awkward plot twist – for a left-hander that was throwing more than half of his pitches at 86 mph or lower (the knuckle-curve checks in at 79.2, and for the season was thrown 39.2 percent of the time) Fenway Park and that big green monster of a wall in left field could prove to be a bad mix. Hence there became the need to quickly correct the rating on Pomeranz, which was written about here when he made his Boston debut.
As it turns out, Fenway really was a difficult place for him, enough so that there was a question as to whether the Red Sox would bring him back, but they did, to the tune of $4.45 million. And since he gets his first start of 2017 tonight it is time to go back to just how awkward of a fit this may be.
ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 HR/9
Fenway 6.43 1.61 3.5 7.9 2.60
All others 2.71 1.10 3.4 8.4 0.88
Note by the walk and strikeout ratios that Pomeranz did not change his game, but when contact was made there was a major difference. And yes, I know there is an issue of sample size involved, but one of the keys to being a successful handicapper is applying logic to any sampling, in order to be able to be a step ahead in terms of anticipating outcomes.
The problem is easy to see here – while making contact vs. Pomeranz is a challenge for hitters (the 11.1 SWS% of 2016 was a career-best), when contact is made right-handers are going to find pulling the ball rather easy, and that means some relatively routine fly balls to left can become home runs. Want a better way to visualize the HR impact?
At-Bats per HR
Fenway 14.5:1
All others 38.8:1
Now there comes a serious question as to just how ready Pomeranz is to go anyway. He got a late start on his Spring Training prep because of an elbow injury that led to a stem-cell injection in the off-season, and when he did appear it was ugly, 11 runs being allowed in 12 IP, with seven walks. Pomeranz was then placed on the DL to start the season, so there are multiple questions tonight – will he have his best stuff; and if he does, can his best work in this park anyway?
It didn’t the one time the Orioles saw him here in 2016, Pomeranz laboring through 63 pitches to only get through two innings, allowing five earned runs with a couple of homers in the mix. That will put me in play with #967 Baltimore Team Total Over (7:10 Eastern), with 4.5 available across the board in the early trading, on a pleasant spring night in Fenway with a slight hitter’s wind towards the wall.
Baseball Being Baseball
The on-going series that shows some of the various bits of filler that gets ground into the sausage of baseball statistics…
Bottom of the 4th in San Francisco, bases loaded with one out, Diamondbacks/Giants tied 0-0, Taijuan Walker pitching to weak-hitting mound opponent Matt Moore. Moore barely made contact, producing a feeble grounder towards 1B that did not get halfway down the line before becoming inert in the infield grass. Yet three runs came around to score on the play. Despite a couple of hideous errors being made, the official scoring is that two of the runs are earned, and get charged to Walker, while Moore’s swinging bunt earned him an rbi. And that’s baseball.
The various geometric bounces and idiosyncrasies will tend of even out a bit over time, but in the short-term a lot of oddities can impact the numbers in a misleading manner.
About Last Night, NBA…
A failed ticket on the Spurs here yesterday at least provided some opportunity for a lot of maneuvering – a shopper could have laid -4 and taken +11 if they were diligent, and -4.5 and +10.5 were commonly available. The mistake was in reading a little too much into the Gregg Popovich sentiments, with none of the starters on the court longer than Dewayne Dedmon’s 21:41. But there was still something to see going forward.
One of the issues noted here recently was how the PG tandem of Tony Parker/Patty Mills may be overmatched against the quality of opposition they will be up against in the playoffs, and if you saw Shabazz Napier go off for 32 points last night the issue was clear – they just couldn’t stay in from of him with much success.
The San Antonio playoff draw now brings Mike Conley in round one, either Russell Westbrook or James Harden in round two, and should they reach the Western Conference finals it will almost assuredly be Steph Curry. That is going to be awfully difficult for even the genius of Pops to navigate.
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB…
It is a tough market out there. I wanted to be able to buy in early on Carlos Carrasco this season, which has already become the shopping equivalent of showing up for a sale only to find a dozen folks already in line. And the fact that I don’t expect much of a turnaround from James Shields this season was already made a prime sentiment here last week.
But was there any break from the markets for Shields having a rather fluky “Baseball Being Baseball” win over Detroit in his 2017 debut? Not a damn penny, based on today’s line. But there are times across the MLB cycle in which I will commit to a concept, and anticipate that by staying in play throughout it will generate a return, and that calls for a half play on #966 Cleveland Run Line (4:10 Eastern), with -1.5 -130 the target.
I am not stealing anything here, but if the Shields 2017 shelf life is going to be a short one I want to be in play in some form when I can. And in this instance the RL offers the best of the options because it also means a chance to back Carrasco.
Here is the gist on the Shields win over the Tigers – while the quick standard glance shows him walking away with a 1-0/1.69 in which he only allowed two hits, in truth he labored throughout. Only 58 of his 104 pitchers found the strike zone, with five of the 23 batters faced drawing a walk, and it was a most dangerous 15.4 GB%. FIP read the game at 6.34, xFIP at 6.55 and SIERA at 6.41; I believe each of them a batter barometer than the ERA you will see listed in your morning newspaper (for those of you that still read such things). Others see that, of course, which is why I am not playing to any advantage vs. this price point, but baseball is the one sport in which a Play-On or Play-Against sequence can overcome that with the results on the field. What I am betting on today is not so much this game, as the notions of Carrasco being in Cy Young contention when the season reaches its end, and Shields no longer being in a Major League rotation, which I hope to continue with in some form in the games ahead, but I am also accepting the dubious value notion by reducing the level of investment.
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