Point Blank – April 10, 2017
On those Dodgers struggles vs. lefties (and why Jon Lester is pitching tonight)…The Orioles sent Mark Trumbo vs. Dellin Betances with the game on the line (and why that matters)…Pops wants his team to play better, and Portland may not bother to get in the way much…
To call Sunday unique in the sporting world would be an understatement, from Sergio Garcia finally getting the pieces in place to triumph in a Major, after so many opportunities had come up a bit short, to bizarre plot twists across both the NBA and MLB landscapes. There are likely some folks across the wagering community that had tickets on both the Cavaliers and the Mariners (in particular there was a lot of Cleveland traffic yesterday, that price rising from -2 to -5), and about all we can offer to them is that Monday brings a fresh board.
I will be saving the jukebox for mostly the weekend editions through the spring/summer months, but since there are multiple topics to sort through today there is some background called for, so after a tribute to the 2017 Rock and Roll Hall of Fame class here over the past cycle, let’s go to a fun jam session from Friday night's ceremonies at the Barclay's Center. Here are several of the honorees doing what they do best, “Rockin’ in the Free World” -
That is what they do, now time for us to do what we do…
Item: On the Dodgers and those issues with lefties
Jake Arrieta is supposed to be hooking up against Alex Wood in Wrigley tonight, when the Dodgers/Cubs meet in a rematch of last October’s NLCS, a 4-2 Chicago triumph. Instead it will be Jon Lester on the hill for the home team, and the fact that a move like that is happening this early in the season indicates much of what could be ahead – the 2016 Dodgers were so bad against left-handers that opposing managers may go out of their way in tweaking the rotation to set up a series against them.
Joe Maddon was open about it - “This was so obvious we just couldn’t walk away from it. Milwaukee is predominantly right-handed, the Dodgers are predominantly left-handed, so it was just right in front of us.”
And Maddon certainly remembers Lester beating Los Angeles twice last October, allowing two runs over 13 innings, with as many strikeouts as hits allowed. That did not come as a shock because in 2016 the Dodgers weren’t just the worst offense in the Majors against left-handers, they were worst by a significant margin. So let’s take a closer look as another season unfolds, first viewing the Dodger R/L splits from 2016, and then comparing them to the #29 team vs. lefties in each category, to see how deep their basement was -
LAD 2016 AVG OBP SLG
Right .264 (4) .331 (6) .441 (6)
Left .213 (30) .290 (30) .332 (30)
#29 vs. L .234 .298 .363
When things are that bad it usually means changes are in order, and while adding Logan Forsythe to play 2B and leadoff against left-handers is a plus, about the only other addition of significance was journeyman Franklin Gutierrez, a 34-yeard old with a career .257/.311/.409 slash line. And yesterday Gutierrez was batting cleanup.
The Dodgers did manage enough production off of Tyler Anderson to get a Sunday win at Çoors Field, but their two previous games vs. left-handers were losses to Clayton Richard and Kyle Freeland. And despite the only outings vs. left-handers being against rather pedestrian offerings, how does the offense break down after the first week of play?
LAD 2017 AVG OBP SLG
Right .294 .412 .540
Left .225 .295 .363
Dave Roberts understands what he is up against, and why it will be Lester against his lineup this evening – “It’s not a surprise, I get it. It’s up to us to change the narrative, and we’re gonna have our opportunities.”
But can they change that narrative? The early Monday markets are claiming yes, with an opener of Chicago -170 having drifted down to as low as -142, and to put that in perspective, Lester was -215 here vs. Kenta Maeda in the NLCS opener in October, and -160 at Dodger Stadium in Game #5 when the same pitchers were on the hill. The Cubs won the two games by a combined eight runs, despite having three fewer outs to work with.
I will be in play at the reduced price point with #910 Chicago (8:05 Eastern), with -145 or less a “go”. Now it is not just the Dodgers up against a left-hander, but up against a Cy Young contender and what may once again be the best defense in the Majors behind him. And I would not be surprised if Wood struggled a bit to get into rhythm – he has only worked two innings out of the bullpen since Spring Training, and coming from that weather into Wrigley, where the temperature may drop into the 40’s before he throws his first pitch, can make for a difficult adjustment.
Item: If you are on base against Dellin Betances…
One of the fascinating subplots over the weekend came from Baltimore’s rally to beat the Yankees on Saturday night, part of that two-run seventh being keyed when Mark Trumbo stole a base off of Betances. Trumbo is certainly not a sprinter at 6-4/225, and over the last two seasons combined had only attempted two stolen bases. The Orioles as a team only had 19 steals in the entire 2016 season. Hence why this matters.
The stuff that comes from the right arm of Betances is electric, with a 2.17 ERA and 2.06 FIP across 257 career innings, the catalyst a 14.3 K/9 that has a chance to become a part of baseball history. But instead of turning him into the next Mariano Rivera, the Yankees opted to bring back Aroldis Chapman in the off-season, and keep Betances in the set-up role. That raised some eyebrows at the time, until an arbitration setting between the pitcher and the team led Yankee president Randy Levine to cross a rather questionable line. Levine went too far, and some of what he said was flat-out wrong – Betances had not racked up a lot of saves because he simply had not been given those opportunities. But there was something touched upon in the case that did raise eyebrows, the Yankees noting that opposing runners were 21-21 in stolen bases against the right-hander in 2016, over just 73 innings of work. And it makes sense, given that part of why he is so difficult to hit is that long stride towards the plate.
Baltimore’s willingness to send a runner like Trumbo shows an awareness of that weakness, and over the course of Betances career those attempting to steal have succeeded 52 times in 60 tries. Put that into the context of how many times the opportunities have been there, Betances tending to start innings with naturally no one on base, and also not allowing many runners to reach, and the ratio does become a serious baseball factor.
Joe Girardi made the call on Saturday to bring Betances into a game with a runner already on (although it was not Trumbo, who singled off Betances before stealing). Might there come a time at which he hesitates to do that? If a manager like Buck Showalter that does not use the stolen base much as a tool is willing to send a slow runner, it may not be long before others follow suit.
Stolen bases vs. pitchers is not an easy number to track; you have to do some digging for it. But that digging may be showing us that while Betances has exceptional stuff, there may be a challenge ahead to his effectiveness if those few runners that are on base feel carte blanche to run against him.
In the Sights, Monday NBA…
The weekend edition featured a deeper dive into San Antonio’s loss to the Lakers at home last Wednesday, in a game I believe Gregg Popovich simply refused to allow his team to win, and that has set off a sequence of events that will have me in play tonight in a game that crosses several key handicapping points. So let’s make it #713 San Antonio (10:35 Eastern), with -4.5 easy to find in the Monday morning trading (a good shopper can squeeze out a little -4), and this one good to -5.
Wednesday’s loss to the Lakers was a wasted game in which nothing was accomplished in terms of gearing up for the playoffs other than keeping the key cogs fresh. The same could be said about Friday’s win at Dallas, when Pops put out a starting lineup of Simmons/Mills/Bertans/Anderson/Dedmon. But then it was time to play vs. the Clippers on Saturday, and the Spurs stunk it up in a 98-87 loss, allowing LAC to shoot 50%, and SA committing more than twice as many turnovers (13-6). Naturally Popovich wasn’t happy about it – "They were more aggressive than we were. They wanted the game more. We were aggressive, got into them and showed the physicality and communication necessary to win against a good team for about six minutes of the third quarter, and that was that. We didn't have enough physical toughness to compete with them."
So what does that mean going forward? I believe it becomes a major focus on playing well, and also playing a complete game, tonight. More from Pops - "Nobody's going to rest. Everybody's going to play. We already rested everybody, and we have days in between now. It's like the playoffs, kind of. There's no back-to-backs. There's no bad travel or anything like that, so it's time for rhythm and that sort of thing.”
I believe it is a much different approach for Terry Stotts, his Trail Blazers now having their playoff spot clinched, and with only two meaningless home games this week it will mean time to back off the throttle on some key cogs, in particular Damian Lillard, who has not dipped under 34:00 in a game since March 26, and played 41:49 vs. Utah on Saturday. Now the reason why Lillard’s minutes have been so high comes into play – this is a depth-shy bunch right now, in particular around the basket.
Portland has gone 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS since losing Jusuf Nurkic up front, but don’t be fooled by that – the Trail Blazers have been out-rebounded by a -36 across that span, losing the battle of the boards in each game. Meyers Leonard does not have the talent to be a full-time starter at the position, but not only is that his role now there isn’t much behind him. Leonard has only averaged 5.4 points and 3.4 rebounds across those five starting assignments, and I would expect the Spurs to have their way around the basket tonight, especially since that is where their focus is supposed to be going anyway.
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