Point Blank – March 28, 2017
NIT Semis – The Game Inside the Game (Tuesday in New York is a lot more interesting than you may think)…But first a detour around Bakersfield and those parts, with Merle Haggard providing a bittersweet background…
I have heard folks in the Sports Mediaverse bemoaning tonight’s NIT semi-finals as being without sizzle, but for the true fan of the sport that is not the story at all, and especially for the savvy handicapper. There are terrific talking points and sub-plots here, and it does call for staying on the recent theme of “The Game Inside the Game” to frame the matchups.
In terms of intensity, when you think of what these games mean to Rod Barnes, Johnny Dawkins, Jamie Dixon and Josh Pastner in their stages of building their programs, it is going to be big-time in Madison Square Garden. Want to have some fun with it? There are 20 candidates up for the Jim Phelan Coach of the Year award, which will be announced at the Final Four this weekend, and all four of tonight’s mentors are on that list.
The talking points will also lead to a little longer read today, and the presence of Barnes’ Roadrunners provides a proper excuse to not only plug in the Jukebox, but set a direction. If you are a student of modern American culture then you are likely already aware of “The Bakersfield Sound”, a mix of time-and-place that brought something unique to Country/Western music, despite being over 2,000 miles from Nashville. It was music that had more of an edge, and was breaking away from the formulaic and commercialized C&W of the day, in part because of the time and place.
A lot of music is about dreams, and visions of where one can go. In the 20th century many of the U.S. dreams were about heading west, and the promises that magical land of California would hold. The Bakersfield Sound was different than what had been popular at the time, a harder edge both lyrically and musically (though a lot of Saturday Night Dancehall flavor), because that was where a lot of folks were coming face-to-face with those dreams, realizing full well that their trip had reached as far as it was going to take them, both geographically in the San Joaquin Valley, and spiritually. This was the last stop for John Steinbeck’s Joad family, and countless in real life across the 20th century, a place where many found the bittersweet revelation that the end of the road wasn’t all that much better, if at all, than the beginning.
I will stop before getting too long winded but if you haven’t read much about that area, that era, and that music, here is an interesting recent piece by Aaron Gilbreath, taking a look at what is left. I still get the occasional run along Route 99 on what could be named “The Grapes of Wrath” highway, the distance from Las Vegas to the Shakespeare Festival in Ashland, Oregon (one of the nation’s best, by the way) such that it can be a pleasant one-day drive, especially if someone plugs into the history. Bakersfield, Delano, Tulare (always playing Merle Haggard’s “Tulare Dust” around that time), Fresno, Merced, Modesto and a whole lot of places pass by that haven’t changed much lately, and likely aren’t going to any time soon.
I’ll put some of that into immediate perspective next, which is what sparked this little detour, but you need a song by now, and while Buck Owens was the pioneer of the sound no one captured the spirit better than Merle Haggard, who we lost a year ago. Haggard wasn’t afraid to write about the harshness of reality because in truth he had been to many of the edges, somehow finding his way back without having fallen over. I am not sure if anything captures the essence better than “Sing Me Back Home”, something that precious few would ever dare attempt to write, and only a special level of understanding could pull off. And once written, telling the tale with soul on stage may be the even greater challenge. Here is a late-career mastering of that challenge by one of the best there ever was -
Now let’s get to work, first staying right on the theme..
Item: A Saturday in Bakersfield, 2017
So for the 99 percent of you that will likely never spend a day in Bakersfield, what is it like in 2017? The run by Barnes and his team has captured the city so much that Saturday become an open practice, the “BMW of Bakersfield Fanfest”, a local catering company giving away free tacos to all fans that came to the Icardo Center.
That is the kind of place Bakersfield still is, and it also shows how big of a deal the trip by the Roadrunners is to the community. It does raise a serious basketball question, so now is time to turn the focus to the betting boards…
CSU-BAKERSFIELD/GEORGIA TECH – Have the Roadrunners really faced any game pressure yet
The run by Barnes and his team has been a rather splendid thing to see, every bit as much for the coach as the players – a guy who works hard but couldn’t quite make all of the pieces fit at Ole Miss (where he once got the Rebels to the Sweet 16) or Georgia State, may have become Tom Joad in his wanderings, and has put together a program that has gone 49-17 the last two seasons, making the NCAA tourney last March before this NIT surge.
And a surge it has been, Bakersfield the first #8 seed to make it to Madison Square Garden since the NIT began pre-setting the brackets a decade ago, winning 73-66 at California, 81-63 at Colorado State and 80-76 at UT-Arlington to get to this stage. A team that struggled all season to make shots has been knocking them down, and in particular let’s look at the 3-point shooting before the NIT, and in those three wins, looking at both makes per game and the percentage –
3PG 3%
Pre-NIT 6.2 33.5
NIT 10.0 50.8
They have gone from the gang that couldn’t shoot straight to both a volume and success rate that rivals any team that has ever played the sport at this level. Hence one could put a stamp of approval on them, and state that since they have done this on the road they have passed a test, and are ready for New York.
But maybe not. Here is the issue – while winning three road games like that would ordinarily tell us much about a team’s moxie, and their ability to handle game pressure, that may not necessarily be the case here. It just so happens those wins were games in which they shot remarkably well in the early stages, and as such faced little game pressure at all –
Roadrunners NIT First Half
California 44-19
Colorado St 52-32
UT-Arlington 45-29
In reviewing the games there were some frustrations by opposing coaches (though Cal’s Cuonzo Martin only spoke briefly while packing up to head to Missouri) about how their game plans were to force Bakersfield to shoot from the outside, and they got burned with it. Those early rolls of the dice then set up the rest of the game flows, which did not tax Barnes’ players all that much. It means that the notion of a tough end-game under pressure remains an issue, as does the environment (there will likely be more fans in the Garden tonight than all three of those NIT road wins combined).
What if the Roadrunners are still an offensively challenged team? Even with those tourney wins thrown in they rate #244 in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, and now that part of their game goes into a terrific Georgia Tech defense, one that brings both size and tactics into play. The Yellow Jackets are #6 in defensive efficiency, #19 in effective FG% allowed, and #3 in blocked shot%. How about some perspective on what that #6 means –
2017 Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
1. GONZAGA
2. SOUTH CAROLINA
3. VIRGINIA
4. WEST VIRGINIA
5. FLORIDA
6. GEORGIA TECH
That is pretty good company to be in. When you play that level of defense it opens the door for some interesting results, like a 75-63 win over North Carolina back in the early part of ACC play.
The Yellow Jackets aren’t smooth on offense, but in this price range I will put their defense into play against a Bakersfield offense that may struggle mightily to maintain that recent success, and the GT size advantage around the basket can make enough things happen on offense. So it will be #778 Georgia Tech (7:00 Eastern) in pocket, with plenty of -1.5 out there in the morning trading, and value holding to -2.
TCU/UCF – Will the Horned Frogs have the tactics to cope with Tacko Fell
The night-cap brings us a pair of quick turnarounds by coaches in their first season on campus, Dixon and Dawkins having solid campaigns. In the case of Dixon it was about getting a team to do things his way, while Dawkins brought much of that as well, but also happened to have a pair of sophomores with a lot of upside fall into his lap, UCF leading scorer B.J. Taylor (17.6), and one of the more intriguing prospects in the country in 7-6/300 Tacko Fell, who averaged 11.7 ppg and 9.7 rpg despite only playing 26.4 minutes, while also coming up with 88 blocked shots. If they can get his conditioning up above the 30-minute mark next season watch out.
Naturally the presence of someone like Fell does wonders for a defense, and the Golden Knights were #17 in Efficiency, #2 in Effective FG% and #1 in guarding 2-point attempts. What they don’t do is pressure the ball, rating #342 in TO% and #345 in Steal%, and it is that part of the matchup that might tell the tale tonight.
Dixon got TCU turned by getting the players to buy in to notions of sharing the basketball, and there may not be a better way to break it down that the ratio of Assists to Field Goals Made:
2013 #242
2014 #129
2015 #135
2016 #173
2017 #10
That is a rather significant leap in a single season, and it comes from a coach that understands offense. Hence something from him that made the files in building out this handicap - “Obviously, he (Fall) changes the game inside defensively. But there are some other things that you hope that we can take advantage of in transition or bring him out on the perimeter to guard some ball screens or create matchups more to our liking. With strengths come some weaknesses and as we go, we look at those and we attack those.”
With Dixon I don’t just take that as coach-speak; he really does know this part of the game quite well (he was an all-SWC point guard at TCU in his playing days). It isn’t enough for me to get in play, with no chimes towards TCU at higher than -1, but it does provide for the prospect of watching some high-level coaching taking place. As noted at the top, there is a lot more going on in the Garden tonight than the casual observers might be anticipating.
Item: On that clash of wills in Houston
A lot of folks may opt to skip the NIT because there is something on the professional hardwoods that will appear to be more interesting, and in truth there is a lot to see when Golden State takes on Houston. As noted here a few times recently, the Rockets have built out their rotation with the notion of out-running anyone they play, which would mean trying to beat the Warriors at their own game, something most daring, although tonight’s task is made much easier for them with Kevin Durant sidelined.
I don’t expect to be involved for the pocket but there is plenty to see – just where are the Warriors really right now in terms of tempo? It has been 10 straight Unders at this stage, falling 109 points below the market projections, and 15 of the last 16 pointing that way. They are doing it with both defense, which rates #1 in the NBA over those last 10 outings, a full 2.0 PP100 better than anyone else, and also note this –
Golden State Pace
Full Season #3
Last 10 #13
Now comes the biggest challenge the NBA currently brings in terms of both Offense and Pace – the Rockets are the #1 offense in the NBA since the All Star break by a wide margin, 2.5 PP100 better than any other team, and they are also #2 in pace. Making the challenge even better guess where the Warriors are tomorrow? In San Antonio...
For my charting this will not necessarily be about who wins tonight, but about who best controls the tempo, though that may well point to the winner anyway. This is a good evening to be a student of the sport, especially one with multiple televisions.
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