Point Blank – March 23, 2017
Sweet 16 East – The Game Inside the Game…Is John Wall hitting a wall…
It is time for the games to begin in the Sweet 16 this evening, but we are only halfway here through taking our tour of the matchups with “The Game Inside the Game” approach. For those who have been occupied on other fronts so far this week, and prepping for the upcoming MLB season does require some major attention, you can go back through the takes on the West and Midwest Regionals with a simple click.
It will also be interesting to watch how the markets flow today – there was an enormous amount of money bet on the first two rounds, which likely means record-breaking counts will be on the way through this weekend as well. There is one pattern to note, and not an unexpected one based on the strong run to the Over so far – every Total on the Thursday board is now higher than the opener, and in particular there are wheelbarrows showing up for WVU/Gonzaga Over, 150 now showing in some key precincts. The Bulldogs are also getting some morning steam – I did not think there was going to be a shot at a +4, but not only is there a crack at that but also a +150 on the Money Line. As always, patience is a potential virtue, and in this instance it is being realized in terms of positioning.
I am going to plug in the jukebox an extra day this week because this is a long read, and in truth when you work through South Carolina/Baylor there may be a bit of a headache because of the unique matchup components. So let’s go back to the late Tommy Bolin for a second shot, after his music helped ease the way through last weekend’s tourney charting. If a big part of Wiscy/Florida is the “What might have been” for a couple of Badger seniors, we can continue to wonder just where Bolin’s arc might have soared had there been more time. A classic example of his skill comes across in "Flyin' Fingers" -
Now off to Madison Square Garden, where I had the pleasure of once covering an NIT semi-final as a young sportswriter long ago (back before the NCAA had expanded the field, when the later NIT rounds brought some outstanding basketball), and learned why that place was then, and still is now, the mecca of the sport.
WISCONSIN/FLORIDA – The calmest guys in Madison Square Garden might be Bronson Koening and Nigel Hayes (and oh what might have been…)
Practical basketball matchups tell us when certain teams have an X’s and O’s advantage over others, but one of the prime realities is how well a team will execute the sport to maximize those prospects. As the pressure builds in this tournament the players that can handle it best are naturally at an advantage, which leads to the key take here – Koenig and Hayes have had remarkable career arcs, which tell us that Wisconsin is well-positioned to handle the bright lights of this stage.
This is the fourth tourney go-round for the senior duo, and it is among the greatest “What might have been” career arcs of this century. We can start with the base count that the Badgers are 13-3 SU and 11-4-1 ATS in tourney games with those two on the floor, each rather remarkably playing the identical count of 381 minutes across the span. But it is in how close they came to possibly grabbing four national championships that adds intrigue, even though they have not won one. Let’s look at those three losses –
2014 National Semi-Finals: KENTUCKY 74-73
Wisconsin had a 73-71 lead until Aaron Harrison hit that dramatic 3-pointer with 5.7 seconds left
2015 National Championship: DUKE 68-63
The Badgers led as late as 58-56, but as was the case the previous season, got beat down the stretch by an awfully good opponent
2016 Sweet 16: NOTRE DAME 61-56
A bitter pill for Wiscy to swallow, a 56-53 lead with 0:26 remaining getting turned around by a late 8-0 close-out by the Fighting Irish
That is how close they have been to the prize. Even as freshmen Koenig and Hayes were already major contributors in the rotation, playing 123 minutes from the Sweet 16 on, and this is the third season for each in a full-time starter’s role. Vitto Brown and Zak Showalter were also on the court as reserves in the championship loss to Duke, and have been starters the past two seasons.
Much will be required of both Koenig and Hayes because they do have a wild card thrown at them in this round. One of the reasons for the Wisconsin success in these recent tournaments is how difficult the Badger style is to prepare for, and a case could be made that there is no better style prep than to have played Virginia, which Florida just did. The Gators have both the tenacity and the patience to guard late into the shot clock, which the patient Wisconsin style forces (the Badgers are #343 in SPS on offense at 19.9, but the Florida defense is #314 at 18.1). But in terms of handling the pressure surrounding the game, not only will Wisconsin be the most relaxed team in New York, but possibly in the entire Sweet 16 round.
SOUTH CAROLINA/BAYLOR – On the importance of simply getting a shot at the basket (the Bears takes will impact the Gamecocks makes)
It might sound simple that getting a shot off is a good thing for the offense in a basketball game. One of the coaches I learned an awful lot from in my early days of studying the sport was John Chaney, who may have put as much emphasis on keeping turnovers to a minimum as any I ever tracked. His key to winning at Temple was a tough zone defense, and the goal was to get that defense set for as many possessions as possible. Hence keep the turnovers down, so that the other team can’t get the ball quickly into the open court, and even if an offensive possession was a bad forced shot late in the clock, the defense was still ready to get back and get set.
That comes front-and-center here in a most fascinating matchup of basketball science, and it all does come out of a single talking point. Yes Scott Drew needs his Baylor offense to get shots as the obvious (duh) way to score, but also because the simple act of a Bear taking a shot not only brings a key added offensive dimension into play, but also significantly reduces South Carolina’s ability to score on the ensuing possession.
Let’s break it down, across several categories that are all related. If you had not seen much of Frank Martin’s Gamecocks this season you would have to come away impressed with the 181 points they rang up vs. Marquette and Duke. But while the scoreboard brings the appearance of great offense, that was not necessarily the case – it was the tenacious SC defense forcing 36 turnovers in those games, coming up with 19 steals that sparked the scoring. Getting steals on 13.1 percent of an opponent’s possessions is one hell of a way to generate offense, getting down the floor before the opponent can set their defense. Which leads us to this -
TO%
SC “D” #4
Baylor “O” #305
One of the best teams in the land at forcing turnovers is now matched up against a team that does not take good care of the ball. Let me add an important caveat here – Baylor is better than this. While Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency are adjusted for strength of schedule, the sub-categories are not. So the Bears were not quite this terrible, because of the teams they were up against, but they were pretty damn bad.
So you are ready to take the plunge here, right? South Carolina gets turnovers for easy points and wins another game. But not so fast – what happens when the Gamecocks don’t get a turnover, and a Baylor shot is taken? First, it might go in. But then if it doesn’t -
Rebounding
Baylor “O” #3
SC “D” #267
The Bears are one of the best teams in the nation at crashing the offensive boards, which you can do with a guy like Jonathan Motley banging inside. The Gamecocks are challenged in this area. So on those trips in which a Baylor shot is taken, a simple miss is not mission accomplished for South Carolina – the possession remains in play.
And what happens when the Bears finish a possession by scoring? Then the Gamecocks have to come down and run offense. The brilliant flows you thought you were seeing when they averaged 90.5 in the opening two rounds? Those same players got throttled 64-53 vs. non-descript Alabama in the first round of the SEC tourney. Here’s the problem -
SC “O” BAYLOR “D”
Effective FG% #306 #20
2-point% #301 #24
3-point% #246 #33
That is an “ouch”. And keep in mind that these numbers are also not schedule-adjusted, so while the Gamecocks are a little better than this based on their #38 slate, the Bears may be much better than these already good defensive numbers, not only having faced the #5 schedule, but that schedule loaded with top-tier offenses (the Big 12 slate brought Oklahoma State #1, Kansas #5 and Iowa State #11).
And note that South Carolina has been at its very worst this season when facing zones, something that Drew will throw at them. See how much fun?
I believe this turns into an ugly scramble of a game, with two athletic and physical teams making it difficult for anyone to find an open shot, except for those times that the Gamecocks generate something off of a turnover. That will have me sorting through the Under prospects, but not in any particular hurry given the current market behaviors. The best path would be First Half Under, which can eliminate fears of an end-game scramble if it stays close, and I will update those notions here tomorrow as the trading shakes out.
About Last Night, NBA…
After being a great money earner through a big cycle of this season, the Washington Wizards have been a prime money burner of late, some of that the markets naturally catching up, but I am also wondering how much we should be putting John Wall under the microscope. Wall is having a terrific season and has been the catalyst in making the Wizards legitimate contenders in the Eastern Conference (seriously, take a hard look at that Cleveland defense). But within the solution lies the problem – Washington has needed him to be too much of a catalyst.
The Wizards are just 2-10 ATS over their last dozen games (as always my numbers will look different from other sources because there were a pair of overtime games involved). Some of that may well be Wall slowing down – his 36.7 minutes per game is the most since 37.8 back in his rookie season of 2010-11.
The competitive drive is there, which you could see in his strong second half effort vs. Atlanta last night. But are the legs missing on his shot, both in terms of jumpers coming up short and his drives to the basket not finishing as easily? Wall is just 19-60 from the field over the last four games, including 3-16 from 3-point range.
It has been 17 straight games of 33:39 or more for Wall, including a back-to-back OT cycle on the road in that span. For as big as each game is the rest of the way in terms of playoff seeding, Scott Brooks may need to find some rest for his key cog, otherwise going anywhere in the playoffs may be a moot point.
Meanwhile there is another team for which rest is the last thing needed right now, and I am going to do something with it…
In the Sights, Thursday NBA…
The unique recent lay-out for the Clippers was written about here before they dismantled the Lakers earlier this week, and that game only continued the cycle. Not only are Chris Paul and Blake Griffin fresher than usual for this time of season because of all of those games missed to injury, but Griffin and DeAndre Jordan have not been on the court in the fourth quarter in over a full week, while Paul played some in the final stanza at Denver last Thursday, but left with 4:24 remaining. That means not only a fresh team tonight but a focused one as well, this game meaning a lot in that hunt for the #4 seed in the West and a first-round home court advantage, and that puts #805 LA Clippers (8:35 Eastern) in play this evening. A good shopper can still get to a -4 this morning, but call it good to -5.
Let me repeat a quote from Doc Rivers used earlier in the week, before his team faced the Knicks and Lakers on back-to-back nights - “I don’t focus on the playoff part of it. I focus on we just have to keep playing better. Since everyone’s been back (from injury), we’re still trying to put our team back together. We need work, and with the schedule, there is no time to practice.”
They didn’t get all that much work in those games, however, leading the Knicks 97-72 and the Lakers 108-74 at the end of the third quarter, which meant the starters only sitting and watching the rest of the way. This is a fresh bunch that needs to get out and play, and with a long home stand upcoming there is no reason to hold anything back here.
Dallas is at the other end of the energy spectrum. The toll of being full-time NBA starters is apparent for both Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry, and the experiment of playing Dirk Nowitzki at center is also showing in an ominous way – the Mavs are getting 47.3 percent of available rebounds since the All Star break, ahead of only Sacramento’s 47.1. They have lost three of their last five games by 22 points or more, and with playoff hopes not much a flickering candle at this point it is unlikely to get any better the rest of the way.
If you're in Vegas...
Chris Andrews and Jimmy Vaccaro over at the Southpoint will be dealing -105 on all NCAA games until the nets have been cut down in Glendale. Kudos to a couple of true sportsmen, and an administration that knows to give them the proper freedoms.
For your listening pleasure...
A technical glitch wiped out the West Regional, but the rest of the Sweet 16 podcast, along with Brad Powers and Steve Fezzik, is now up -
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