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PB: Tourney Friday - The Game Inside the Game

PB: Tourney Friday - The Game Inside the Game
catsanddogs
Joined: 01/16/2016
Posts: 850
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SMU was feasting on the AAC... vs Boise St, Michigan, USC, Pitt, Stanford and TCU.. the Mustangs finished a paltry 3-4.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1136
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Hi David,

I believe there is value on Cincinnati -3 over KSU this evening.

1) Travel - Kansas State’s journey to California was not easy. The Wildcats traveled more than 3,000 miles and three time zones and won a game in the NCAA Tournament’s First Four to get here.  Two games in four days … one in the Rust Belt … one on the West Coast … no stop at home

2) Style - The Bearcats (29-5) play a much different style than Wake Forest, the team K-State outdueled 95-88 on Tuesday. The Demon Deacons are one of the nation’s most up-tempo teams. They rank sixth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th nationally in pace. Cincinnati plays a much different style, ranking 327th nationally in adjusted tempo. This is a team that values defense, allowing an average of 60.8 points – the polar opposite of Wake Forest. “It’s going to be a little tougher to score on Friday,” Weber said. “They are really good defensively. We are going to have to earn every basket.”

3) Matchup -  UC’s Frontcourt vs. KSU’s Frontcourt -  Gary Clark and Kyle Washington are the best post players in this contest and its not particularly close (vs. Wade and Johnson),  Plus there’s the fact that the Bearcats will have the height advantage when it comes to bench options, assuming Mick Cronin turns to Nysier Brooks and Tre Scott at any point; UC’s Ability to Force TOs vs. Kansas State’s ability to limit them,  UC committed the 14th fewest turnovers in the country this season (343). KSU was not as great, ranking 256th (446).  That alone wouldn’t be enough to think this area could decide the game but when you add in UC’s ability to create turnovers, it begins to look more bleak for KSU. The Bearcats recorded the 27th-most steals in the country (255) this season. Five different players average at least one theft per game and you can bet the aggression on defense is not going to suddenly disappear in Sacramento.

4) SMU's loss - the market may overreact here to SMU's loss and project that onto UC, the number has already moved its way towards -3 from -4.

Do you see value on Cincinnati -3?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

sportsinvestingtoday

I believe there is value on Cincinnati -3 over KSU this evening.

1) Travel - Kansas State’s journey to California was not easy. The Wildcats traveled more than 3,000 miles and three time zones and won a game in the NCAA Tournament’s First Four to get here.  Two games in four days … one in the Rust Belt … one on the West Coast … no stop at home

2) Style - The Bearcats (29-5) play a much different style than Wake Forest, the team K-State outdueled 95-88 on Tuesday. The Demon Deacons are one of the nation’s most up-tempo teams. They rank sixth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 57th nationally in pace. Cincinnati plays a much different style, ranking 327th nationally in adjusted tempo. This is a team that values defense, allowing an average of 60.8 points – the polar opposite of Wake Forest. “It’s going to be a little tougher to score on Friday,” Weber said. “They are really good defensively. We are going to have to earn every basket.”

3) Matchup -  UC’s Frontcourt vs. KSU’s Frontcourt -  Gary Clark and Kyle Washington are the best post players in this contest and its not particularly close (vs. Wade and Johnson),  Plus there’s the fact that the Bearcats will have the height advantage when it comes to bench options, assuming Mick Cronin turns to Nysier Brooks and Tre Scott at any point; UC’s Ability to Force TOs vs. Kansas State’s ability to limit them,  UC committed the 14th fewest turnovers in the country this season (343). KSU was not as great, ranking 256th (446).  That alone wouldn’t be enough to think this area could decide the game but when you add in UC’s ability to create turnovers, it begins to look more bleak for KSU. The Bearcats recorded the 27th-most steals in the country (255) this season. Five different players average at least one theft per game and you can bet the aggression on defense is not going to suddenly disappear in Sacramento.

4) SMU's loss - the market may overreact here to SMU's loss and project that onto UC, the number has already moved its way towards -3 from -4.

Do you see value on Cincinnati -3?

This one was kicked around a bit earlier in the thread, but the quick synopsis is that my stuff showed Kansas State if a +5 ever got out there, in a game that is pretty close to a mirror image in terms of style and athleticism. While the trip is tough for the Wildcats, they did get an extra day that the Tuesday play-in winners usually don't have the luxury of, while traveling East to West also buys 3 time zone hours (in essence this is a night game for them).

What could matter down the stretch is something that matter in USC vs. SMU - the AAC did not test Cincinnati and SMU with a lot of close games, and you can see that in the difficulty of opposition for this one, #86 for the Bearcats vs. #17 for K State. So I would rather have the dog plus a little more than the favorite at the current price, but will ultimately end up with nothing until the In-Running begins.

rjr58
Joined: 08/09/2012
Posts: 57
Practice Squad
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Dave

I think ND handles West Vir pressure. Alsept believe ND prepared for this type if game. Think only Wet Vir wins is if they shooter great from the perimeter your thoughts

newprodigy
Joined: 06/14/2016
Posts: 220
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The amount of money that this market is producing is amazing. To watch these numbers do jumping jacks back and fourth is something i dont recall in the past. Dave would you agree that we're seeing something new here?

Mfs62975
Joined: 01/28/2017
Posts: 52
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Dave and others,

Saint Mary's is not impressive at all. I think 4.5 is a small amount of points for the disparity I see in talent? Any thoughts?

Hendrixfan
Joined: 02/11/2015
Posts: 238
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Watching how well South Carolina is playing offensively at Marquette's tempo, after being terrible offensively at Frank Martin's preferred pace, I'd say he has committed coaching malfeasance with the style he has forced his team to play.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

newprodigy

The amount of money that this market is producing is amazing. To watch these numbers do jumping jacks back and fourth is something i dont recall in the past. Dave would you agree that we're seeing something new here?

It is not necessarily new in that there has been a strong increase almost annually around this time. Sports betting is being accepted by the younger generation regardless of the legalities, and this tournament brings out that crowd like perhaps nothing else. Las Vegas is a rather interesting place this weekend, the combination of the tournament and spring break co-nciding to bring a lot of fresh cash into play, even if it is mostly only $20 bills being pushed across the betting windows.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

Mfs62975

Dave and others,

Saint Mary's is not impressive at all. I think 4.5 is a small amount of points for the disparity I see in talent? Any thoughts?

There was some fun discussion with an oddsmaker on that one because he knew that he had to break from the traditional Pomeroy/Sagarin math models, Pomeroy actually calling Saint Mary's by 1, and Sagarin Arizona just 1.5. So the conundrum was whether to post a -4.5, which he felt proper but the wise guys might have snapped up, or a -3.5, and invite the public in.

Here is the key to that rating - Saint Mary's played Gonzaga three times. The Gaels were never really in the hunt in any of them, losing by a combined points, but those games did wonders for the strength of schedule rating - their non-conference slate was #280, and the WCC was dismal being Gonzaga, but looking at how those three games weight the final tally, which shows a #140. That creates a bit of a glitch in the models.

The question I will be ponder overnight is whether Arizona is a carbon copy matchup like Gonzaga for the Gaels, who have a quality big man in Jock Landale, but no depth up front behind him. That lack of depth was exploited by the Gonzaga size, and Arizona brings a similar advantage.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12329
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

Hendrixfan

Watching how well South Carolina is playing offensively at Marquette's tempo, after being terrible offensively at Frank Martin's preferred pace, I'd say he has committed coaching malfeasance with the style he has forced his team to play.

When the Gamecocks are bogged down in their slow half-court sets, you get the feeling at times that players are afraid to shoot, because of Martin's temper. Tonight after taking the ball away from Marquette, which the defense did often, they attacked aggressively in the open court, and that gives them so much more offensive life. Now will they feel that same confidence to attack vs. Duke...

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