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PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game

PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
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Paypurr Tiger

The Clippers seem to be a team that gets up for interesting game, doesn't play well against elite teams like the Rockets and Warriors, and plays down to the competition in other games.  Their games seem to be mostly about what's inside their heads, which is mushy material.  

In home revenge games this year, they've beaten rivals such as the Grizzlies, Lakers, Celtics and Thunder SUATS.  But they've failed to cover versus the Rockets, Warriors, Pacers, 76ers and Bucks.

Dave, do you think the Cavaliers match up tough against the Clips?  Kyle Korver is out, Kyrie Irving is questionable.

I bit off a piece of Clips-2 and am thinking about adding some at -3 after the pro-Clips line move.

I took a small LAC lead like yourself because of the Cleveland issues - Irving, Love, Williams and Shumpert all listed as ??? at this time, but I am not sure if I will ride it out or buy something back later. The Clippers have been a big disappointment since Chris Paul returned, which I will be addressing in a lead topic at the beginning of the week.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
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Paypurr Tiger

Also worth mentioning: The Cavs are 2-6 as dogs this year.  Players enjoy stepping on the throats of defending champions when they see they have a good chance to win.

One side note on that one - that particular ATS trend also reflects games in which the Cavaliers have rested players, which is also a reflection that they may not have been trying all that hard on those nights (in particular check the ATS when LeBron has not played, which has been abysmal).

Paypurr Tiger
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The Cavs have the Lakers next up Sunday, then 2 days off before visiting the Nuggets to finish their West Coast trip.  If the Clips throw some hard punches early, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Cavs dial back their efforts and save their energy for the Lakers.

Mfs62975
Joined: 01/28/2017
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Dave and others,

These unders are getting very tempted as all of th money comes in on these overs. Does anyone else agree?

Paypurr Tiger
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Nice to see the Clips line is now at -12.  I guess LeBron must be sitting.

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
Rank NA
Top 50 Contributor

Paypurr Tiger

Nice to see the Clips line is now at -12.  I guess LeBron must be sitting.

James/Love/Irving all taking the night off.

Paypurr Tiger
Joined: 09/07/2015
Posts: 929
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David Malinsky

Paypurr Tiger

Nice to see the Clips line is now at -12.  I guess LeBron must be sitting.

James/Love/Irving all taking the night off.

That was the one bet I did well on Saturday.  When the line crashed to -12.5, I doubled down on it. ;^)  No "King" No Cover, nearly always.

Paypurr Tiger
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Dave, I'm looking at the GSW/OKC Under on Monday.  It seems to me like Under 221.5 could be one of the easier cash-ins of the year.  The Warriors have buried a couple of lesser teams under their home lights the past couple days, the Bucks and the Magic.  But they go into a very hostile environment at OKC, this time without KD.  The Thunder are improved lately and have been aiming to peak for this game:  They'll have fire breathing out their nostrils.

Much of the Warriors' scoring was enabled by KD's ability to penetrate.  Steve Kerr has to understand that the best way for him to win this game is with very tough defense.  Warriors road games are 4-1 to the Under without KD this year, the only Over coming by 13 points in a win at Atlanta against the Dwight Howard led Hawks.  The Warriors' next game is a back-to-back at the Mavericks.

And both coaches are doubtless trying to gear up their defenses for their playoff runs.  

I also think OKC is the right side here:  Their confidence is bolstered by their strong recent momentum, and they have a strong home court advantage that can undermine the confidence of visiting jump-shooting teams.  Perhaps doubly so against the Warriors, who have won all three games vs. the Thunder this year.  The Warriors are 1-4 SUATS on the road without KD, covering only by 2 at Atlanta.  What do you think?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12565
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Top 50 Contributor

Paypurr Tiger

Dave, I'm looking at the GSW/OKC Under on Monday.  It seems to me like Under 221.5 could be one of the easier cash-ins of the year.  The Warriors have buried a couple of lesser teams under their home lights the past couple days, the Bucks and the Magic.  But they go into a very hostile environment at OKC, this time without KD.  The Thunder are improved lately and have been aiming to peak for this game:  They'll have fire breathing out their nostrils.

Much of the Warriors' scoring was enabled by KD's ability to penetrate.  Steve Kerr has to understand that the best way for him to win this game is with very tough defense.  Warriors road games are 4-1 to the Under without KD this year, the only Over coming by 13 points in a win at Atlanta against the Dwight Howard led Hawks.  The Warriors' next game is a back-to-back at the Mavericks.

And both coaches are doubtless trying to gear up their defenses for their playoff runs.  

I also think OKC is the right side here:  Their confidence is bolstered by their strong recent momentum, and they have a strong home court advantage that can undermine the confidence of visiting jump-shooting teams.  Perhaps doubly so against the Warriors, who have won all three games vs. the Thunder this year.  The Warriors are 1-4 SUATS on the road without KD, covering only by 2 at Atlanta.  What do you think?

The Warriors showed a good defensive focus in those recent home wins, although the quality of competition also played into that (and while Milwaukee has been decent lately, the Bucks were played the second night of a back-to-back sequence), and that is what they know they will have to hang their hats on in a game like this one. But there is an issue that I will make one of the lead topics on Monday - with the bench edges that OKC has right now, might Billy Donovan prefer to push the tempo a bit here, and try to wear the Warriors down? With Oladipo and Kenter healthy again it has been a 5-0 SU and ATS run by the Thunder, so I do wonder about Donovan's approach. I have much more work to do on this one before finishing the ratings.

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