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PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game

PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game
chips
Joined: 03/12/2013
Posts: 145
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Hey Dave,

Something I have followed for a long time and works for me is when the Squares bet on the dog, the favorite usually rolls. I use this in NFL games monday and Sunday night, Bowl Games and March Madness games. As you know when its this late and the lines are tight any little edge can put you over the top.

Tonight Flast fits that mold with over 65% of the SPREAD bets being on the dog, liking me some flast -12 tonight

Just FYI 2 games fit that mold this am and it was FLA and Butler, both winners, not blowouts by any means but the funny thing is, they were the only true favs to actually cover! Throw out the 2 games lined around pick and Dogs  actually went 4-2 ats, but the ones the public loved were 0-2!

triple dubs
Joined: 11/07/2015
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dave, you were spot on with purdue! great call.

mikeel85
Joined: 12/21/2012
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Michigan over Oklahoma St.--fading another public puppy

gerry1123
Joined: 08/27/2013
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Hello David,

Interested to get your take on the following Friday games:

1.  Iona/Oregon(over 152).  Oregon is without inside presence Boucher, and Iona likes to run and shoot the three.  I see this game as a high-scoring affair, and I am tempted to take the Gaels and the 15 pts.  However,   I thought the over might be a better play.  Your thoughts?

2.  Texas Southern(+26 1/2) vs. North Carolina.  The #1's struggled today before pulling away(but not covering), and I wouldn't be surprised if that continues today.  Carolina should have an easy time with Texas Southern, but the fact that Justin Jackson has all of a sudden gotten the yips with his jump shot lead me to believe that TS could potentially cover the large spread.  Is there value at this price point?

3. Duke(-19) vs. Troy.  Duke's short bench means the starters will see a lot of minutes.  Duke is peaking at the right time, and I think they will make short work of the men of Troy.  Trying to decide if(-19) for the game is the play, or(-12) for the first half.  What is the better value between the two?

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
Posts: 12814
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gerry1123

Interested to get your take on the following Friday games:

1.  Iona/Oregon(over 152).  Oregon is without inside presence Boucher, and Iona likes to run and shoot the three.  I see this game as a high-scoring affair, and I am tempted to take the Gaels and the 15 pts.  However,   I thought the over might be a better play.  Your thoughts?

2.  Texas Southern(+26 1/2) vs. North Carolina.  The #1's struggled today before pulling away(but not covering), and I wouldn't be surprised if that continues today.  Carolina should have an easy time with Texas Southern, but the fact that Justin Jackson has all of a sudden gotten the yips with his jump shot lead me to believe that TS could potentially cover the large spread.  Is there value at this price point?

3. Duke(-19) vs. Troy.  Duke's short bench means the starters will see a lot of minutes.  Duke is peaking at the right time, and I think they will make short work of the men of Troy.  Trying to decide if(-19) for the game is the play, or(-12) for the first half.  What is the better value between the two?

You have managed to hit on a few that I have no involvement with, on what is otherwise a busy day, but here are a few notions. There is a slight pause with Oregon totals in that the Ducks were only #240 in tempo when playing with the full rotation, and while the loss of Chris Boucher does impact a defense that led the nation in Blocked Shots%, it does mean one fewer body in the rotation, hence Dana Altman may have the Ducks playing more deliberately. Iona loves to run and score, but the Gaels will be playing their first game in 11 days, so timing is an issue, as is patience against a class defense (they habit faced many). But unlike most big dogs depth is not an issue in this matchup, so if they have some rhythm early they can hang around.

Texas Southern faces one of the single ugliest mismatch elements of any team - the Tigers were #336 in the nation at clearing the defensive boards, and now face the best offensive rebounding team in the land. It will be tough enough for them to get defensive stops, and even when they get them they still have to come down with the ball. But because it is such a mismatch this may be one of those ideal back-door settings - Southern comes in with no real notion of competing to win the game, and if the focus is to jut play hard for as long as they can, the backdoor can be open here.

I am usually hesitant to back the big favorites that come in off of winning their conference tournaments the previous weekend, which can have them focusing more on just winning and moving on, especially when they have serious Sweet 16 and beyond aspirations. If I am looking to chalk I want it to be a team with a chip on their shoulder, and a motivation to go for a margin, but Duke doesn't bring that added motivation to this one. The Blue Devils can still get there on the talent mismatch, but if they do get a margin don't be surprised if Coach K shortens the second half and tries to reduce the possessions.

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
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Hi David,

I believe that there is tremendous value today on Dayton both on the ML and at +6.

Dayton's roster is filled with 4 starting seniors....this team has been to the tourney before (despite losing this season in Round 1) and produced 5 NCAA wins in last three years under HC Miller. The experience and winning is there.

WSU played MVC, a very weak conference outside of WSU and Illinois State, Evansville, No. Iowa were down this year.  Although talented (but i question that versus the level of competition) WSU is filled with juniors whom were only role players at best last season.  WSU was a much better team last season with Ron Baker and Fred VanFleet both of whom are in the NBA.

WSU's record is impressive but again this was against a weak conference.  Their record vs. 2017 tourney teams tells us a much different and more accurate story of this team. WSU played 3 tourney teams, and lost all three to Louisville (-2.5, neutral), Oklahoma State (-4.5, neutral) and Michigan State (-5.5, neutral), by 10, 5, 17, and that is SU, against the spread, we have losses of 12.5, 9.5, 11.5 for a total of 33.5 points. I could argue that Dayton is better than MSU and could challenge OK St and Louisville. But yet I getting more points here with Dayton then anyone of those three team.

Conversely, Dayton is from the A10, a conference with much better competition, Dayton also played a handful of competitive teams from power conferences as well as Saint Mary's and New Mexico against these teams, they went 8-3 SU, those three losses came by 4, 3, 5

That said, I see tremendous value on Dayton at +240 and +6.  Interested to get your thoughts (i know on the podcast, you hinted Dayton)?

triple dubs
Joined: 11/07/2015
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S.I.T. - just a heads up +6.5 is now showing up on my book (this matchup has been on my radar ever since dave mentioned it on the dreampod).

RD Neil
Joined: 09/20/2015
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Dave

Looking ahead to Saturday, 2 games jumped out at me this morning...both continuing on the topic of potentially fading the Big 10:

Villanova/Wisconsin - this line seems to be a full basket short?  Do you think this is being driven down by the bookmakers due to Villanova's slow start yesterday, the slower pace of both teams, and Wisconsin's defense?  There was nothing impressive about Wisconsin yesterday in my opinion, they ran into a team that was just shooting as poorly as them and even then V Tech was a basket or stop away from that game having a totally different outcome... Wisconsin won't get away with that against this Villanova offense in my opinion.    

Iowa State/Purdue - line seems about right with Iowa St +1 but when we bring the handicapping factors in and what has been discussed here a lot about Iowa State, I've been ready to take this at post.  Before pulling the trigger I wanted to see if you agreed on my overall takeaway from watching Purdue yesterday that I didn't see anything that special.  It was nice to squeak out that cover but it seemed like Vermont was lurking the entire game.  Against Iowa State, again I just don't think that will fly given their pace and ability to score so quickly.  I was a little concerned with Iowa State letting Nevada get within striking distance in the mid part of the 2nd half yesterday though.

Any other factors we should consider on either game?

sportsinvestingtoday
Joined: 10/25/2014
Posts: 1145
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triple dubs

S.I.T. - just a heads up +6.5 is now showing up on my book (this matchup has been on my radar ever since dave mentioned it on the dreampod).

hi triple dubs, thank you i see that now. by all accounts, I see WSU winning the rebounding game, but i often times do not put much stake in that, you can look at so many games and see teams get outrebounded and win and vice-versa, it almost becomes irrelevant to follow. GWU, URI, VCU and St. Bonny's were the best OR% teams in the A10 and Dayton went 5-2 SU versus them. losses coming by 5 and 6. 

David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
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sportsinvestingtoday

I believe that there is tremendous value today on Dayton both on the ML and at +6.

Dayton's roster is filled with 4 starting seniors....this team has been to the tourney before (despite losing this season in Round 1) and produced 5 NCAA wins in last three years under HC Miller. The experience and winning is there.

WSU played MVC, a very weak conference outside of WSU and Illinois State, Evansville, No. Iowa were down this year.  Although talented (but i question that versus the level of competition) WSU is filled with juniors whom were only role players at best last season.  WSU was a much better team last season with Ron Baker and Fred VanFleet both of whom are in the NBA.

WSU's record is impressive but again this was against a weak conference.  Their record vs. 2017 tourney teams tells us a much different and more accurate story of this team. WSU played 3 tourney teams, and lost all three to Louisville (-2.5, neutral), Oklahoma State (-4.5, neutral) and Michigan State (-5.5, neutral), by 10, 5, 17, and that is SU, against the spread, we have losses of 12.5, 9.5, 11.5 for a total of 33.5 points. I could argue that Dayton is better than MSU and could challenge OK St and Louisville. But yet I getting more points here with Dayton then anyone of those three team.

Conversely, Dayton is from the A10, a conference with much better competition, Dayton also played a handful of competitive teams from power conferences as well as Saint Mary's and New Mexico against these teams, they went 8-3 SU, those three losses came by 4, 3, 5

That said, I see tremendous value on Dayton at +240 and +6.  Interested to get your thoughts (i know on the podcast, you hinted Dayton)?

Dayton was the Best Bet from the Friday Podcast, in this instance a case of matchups - Wichita State can frustrate a lot of teams throw the size, depth and tenacity of the defense, but the Flyers are a hard-nosed veteran group that won't mind getting into a physical game in which there will be a lot of floor burns diving over loose balls. Wichita is another of those teams that is not as good offensively as some of the numbers show because to much production comes off of the defense creating something easy. Scoochie Smith and Flyers will be strong with the ball, and that gives them a chance to be in the hunt.

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